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Author Topic: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins  (Read 12453 times)
S3052
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August 27, 2011, 10:02:56 PM
 #21

Unfortunately, there is no simple, reuccring "rhyme" in the bitcoin market nor in most other financial markets, otherwise it would be too easy...
Fortunately, technical chart analysis of bitcoin prices can really help a lot to guide you.
Have a look at http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/ or subscribe for newest and deeper bitcoin price forecast to guide bitcoin trading.

Currently, there is no reason for me to buy. We need to see either a high volume rally that breaks through at least the 12 $ area, or more likely there will be a steeper drop before attempting to bottom out

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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defxor
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August 27, 2011, 10:21:23 PM
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technical chart analysis of bitcoin prices can really help a lot to guide you

... is your opinion. Another opinion would be that there's no case ever of technical analysis outperforming chance in predicting market movement.

Ever. There are however lots of people not understanding what chance means when you have lots of actors, and humans ARE hard wired to see patterns in everything.


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August 27, 2011, 10:25:00 PM
 #23

technical chart analysis of bitcoin prices can really help a lot to guide you

... is your opinion. Another opinion would be that there's no case ever of technical analysis outperforming chance in predicting market movement.

Ever. There are however lots of people not understanding what chance means when you have lots of actors, and humans ARE hard wired to see patterns in everything.



I can only speak for me: In financial markets, more than 70% of my trades are profitable, and the profitable ones are bigger than the losing ones. I do this with 100% technical analysis, I don't read / watch finnacial news, nothing, only look at charts. And this works for bitcoins brilliantly as well.

But you are right, not everyone is skilled to do it and more importantly, has the proper money management discipline. This is where most people fail, whatever method they use, be it fundamental or technical.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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August 27, 2011, 10:28:37 PM
 #24

what bitcoin needs is Derivative!
Derivatives require a counter-party which can be trusted, or forced, to pay up when they lose. The Bitcoin world lacks any such counter-parties.
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August 27, 2011, 10:31:49 PM
 #25


the profitable ones are nigger than the losing ones.

I've heard of race traitor... but a race trader? 

LOLOLOLOLOL
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August 27, 2011, 10:48:54 PM
 #26

There are however lots of people not understanding what chance means when you have lots of actors

I can only speak for me: In financial markets, more than 70% of my trades are profitable
...
not everyone is skilled to do it

You fail at understanding chance. If a thousand traders decide whether to buy or sell depending on coin flips, some of them will outperform the market and some won't.

The ones who outperformed the market when looking back will claim it's due to their skills at flipping coins. Yet it's still not predictive.
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August 27, 2011, 10:58:27 PM
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the profitable ones are nigger than the losing ones.

I've heard of race traitor... but a race trader? 

LOLOLOLOLOL

 Grin
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August 27, 2011, 11:00:35 PM
 #28

defxor, I'm not a financial person by any means, but I'm guessing that the technical analysis works because most people aren't doing it.  If everyone traded purely objectively like that, then yeah it would be as random as flipping coins.  
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August 27, 2011, 11:52:46 PM
 #29

There are however lots of people not understanding what chance means when you have lots of actors

I can only speak for me: In financial markets, more than 70% of my trades are profitable
...
not everyone is skilled to do it

You fail at understanding chance. If a thousand traders decide whether to buy or sell depending on coin flips, some of them will outperform the market and some won't.

The ones who outperformed the market when looking back will claim it's due to their skills at flipping coins. Yet it's still not predictive.

I could agree with you if I have done 5 trades, but I have a 70% success rate since 8 years, with more than 5,000 trades.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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August 28, 2011, 12:05:42 AM
 #30

Its been pretty stable for over a month now, sitting around 10 to 11 bux even during the weekend down time.  Now its pretty quickly dropped to 8 bux a coin.  So how low we going this time.  I bought a bunch when it hit 9 today, now wish I would have waited of course.  Problem is, if bitcoin keeps freaking going from 11 to 7, to 12, to 8 back and forth its just making it harder and harder for there to be a strong bitcoin economy.  Sellers are not going to want to sell products and services for something that changes its value so dramatically and so quickly.  We need to fix that somehow, it has to stabilize even if its at 5 bux a coin, it just has to be stable withing a dollar for there to ever be any future economy for bitcoin, or at least thats how I feel.

There is no such thing as a Bitcoin future. Too many weaknesses and if you will look at SolidCoin without funneling it through the fact that you may be vested in Bitcoin, you will clearly see it is superior in many ways.



If you will look at Bitcoin without funneling it through the fact that you may be vested in Solidcoin, you will clearly see it is superior in many ways.

Primarily, because it's already larger and more widely accepted.  When it comes to a currency, a larger economy determines superiority.

Whether or not the theory is better doesn't really matter yet.  Bartering/swapping is the best means of exchange in theory but nobody uses it without considering a product value pegged to some other corrency.  How superior would people claim bartering is?

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August 28, 2011, 06:35:07 AM
 #31

defxor, I'm not a financial person by any means, but I'm guessing that the technical analysis works

I doesn't. It's a well researched topic and anyone who could provably show their TA works would be instantly world famous and talked about everywhere.

I could agree with you if I have done 5 trades, but I have a 70% success rate since 8 years, with more than 5,000 trades.

See above.

And if you know statistics, which I assume you do, you also understand that statements about the past can never support your claim. You need to have a provable track record of predictions, published before the fact and not after so that there's not bias of underreporting bad traders and overreporting the good.

If you are that successful, you should start now. There's a Nobel Prize in Economics waiting.

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August 28, 2011, 07:25:07 AM
 #32

defxor, I'm not a financial person by any means, but I'm guessing that the technical analysis works

I doesn't. It's a well researched topic and anyone who could provably show their TA works would be instantly world famous and talked about everywhere.

I could agree with you if I have done 5 trades, but I have a 70% success rate since 8 years, with more than 5,000 trades.

See above.

And if you know statistics, which I assume you do, you also understand that statements about the past can never support your claim. You need to have a provable track record of predictions, published before the fact and not after so that there's not bias of underreporting bad traders and overreporting the good.

If you are that successful, you should start now. There's a Nobel Prize in Economics waiting.



There are good fundamental analyst, i.e. Warren Buffet at least was picking some good stocks. And there are a number of good technical analysts who can strong track records.

It's like sports, there are good and bad left handed tennis players, there are good and bad right handed tennis players, and both can be world class.

It is commonly accepted that technical analysis works. But I don't want to persuade you, it is perfectly fine that you do not want to use it.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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August 28, 2011, 07:33:01 AM
 #33

There are good fundamental analyst, i.e. Warren Buffet at least was picking some good stocks. And there are a number of good technical analysts who can strong track records.

You fail at understanding chance - you just described my coin flip scenario again.

I take it you're not interested in getting a Nobel Prize?

Quote
It is commonly accepted that technical analysis works

Yes. It's also commonly accepted that ghosts exists1, and that it's a good idea to let mediums help in police investigations2.

1: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/10/29/opinion/polls/main994766.shtml

2: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8369369.stm & http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/04/29/opinion/polls/main507515.shtml
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August 28, 2011, 07:51:46 AM
 #34

There are good fundamental analyst, i.e. Warren Buffet at least was picking some good stocks. And there are a number of good technical analysts who can strong track records.

You fail at understanding chance - you just described my coin flip scenario again.

I take it you're not interested in getting a Nobel Prize?

Quote
It is commonly accepted that technical analysis works

Yes. It's also commonly accepted that ghosts exists1, and that it's a good idea to let mediums help in police investigations2.

1: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/10/29/opinion/polls/main994766.shtml

2: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8369369.stm & http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/04/29/opinion/polls/main507515.shtml

Chance is a really weird way of saying something has a cause.  "It was caused by chance."  Just because you don't see a causal mechanism behind something doesn't mean there isn't one.  Chance/probability is abides by its own syntax.  And just because this syntax seems to conflict with typical causality, it doesn't mean it isn't still causal.

Technical analysis takes into account statistical data in order to form a conclusion within a certain degree of probability.  I don't think the comparison to ghosts is a fair one (you also seem to have the a priori assumption 'ghosts' do not exist or that your definition of 'ghost' is the same as others').

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August 28, 2011, 08:01:29 AM
 #35

That's the problem with a free market, it's always subject to manipulation by the big players.
The free market only works a sandpit, with the big players leaving it alone to keep the small fry happy and playing along.

And then there is the "un-free market" where the state owns everything so there's no such thing as commerce except amongst the politburo.

"Big players" in the market don't manipulate simply by participating in exchange. If you argue this point, then you need to define at what monetary point does someone become a big player. So let's say that number is $1,000,000. That's not really that large of an investment but suppose for the argument that is what you consider a "big player". Does that mean $999,999.99 is not a big player? At some point a single penny determines whether an individual is a big player or not.

Actual manipulation comes from fraud, specious statements (strong dollar policy) and false statistics (GDP, core inflation, etc).

I like how in your first sentence you say "a free market" and then in the second sentence it is suddenly "the free market." Do you understand that "the free market" does not exist? It's a concept. More precisely it is the aggregation of voluntary exchanges. There is no problem with an economic system fundamentally based on voluntary exchange.

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August 28, 2011, 08:11:01 AM
 #36

defxor seems to think that being a good trader is about knowing whether to buy or sell. It isn't.

As S3052 says, it's about good money management, and what that means is regardless of if you buy or sell, being a good trader is about knowing how much to place on a certain trade, and at what % to take profits and cut losses.

Nothing to do with whether it's a buy or a sell.

Even if 100 people just took a random guess, let's say 50 chose to sell and 50 chose to buy... that doesn't mean there are 50 successful trades, because they still don't know how much % they should be putting on the line and what their exit points are.

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August 28, 2011, 08:43:43 AM
 #37

defxor seems to think that being a good trader is about knowing whether to buy or sell. It isn't.

As S3052 says, it's about good money management, and what that means is regardless of if you buy or sell, being a good trader is about knowing how much to place on a certain trade, and at what % to take profits and cut losses.

Nothing to do with whether it's a buy or a sell.

Even if 100 people just took a random guess, let's say 50 chose to sell and 50 chose to buy... that doesn't mean there are 50 successful trades, because they still don't know how much % they should be putting on the line and what their exit points are.


Thanks for summarizing so well. +1

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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August 28, 2011, 08:46:03 AM
 #38

defxor seems to think that being a good trader is about knowing whether to buy or sell. It isn't.

Thanks for being funny.

Chance is a really weird way of saying something has a cause.

What?

"Chance" is that if you have a thousand people flip coins, some will flip more heads than others. It doesn't mean they're "better" at flipping coins.

Repeat: No analyst ever has outperformed chance. Ever. No one has ever shown that their analysis method has predictive powers. Ever.

If you disagree with the above, feel free to prove your statements. If you can, you will get a Nobel Prize.
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August 28, 2011, 08:47:45 AM
 #39


Repeat: No analyst ever has outperformed chance. Ever.


Now you made my day. I can't stop laughing. Grin


>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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August 28, 2011, 08:48:34 AM
 #40

Repeat: No analyst ever has outperformed chance. Ever.
Now you made my day. I can't stop laughing. Grin

"You don't understand chance".

If you disagree with the above, feel free to prove your statements. If you can, you will get a Nobel Prize.
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