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Author Topic: Over-Correction  (Read 3107 times)
GoWest
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August 27, 2011, 03:18:10 AM
 #1

We've seen the worst of the sell-off.  I predict a slow and steady rise to $10 by the end of the weekend.

Google Insight for Search shows a large jump in search activity related to the NPR story a couple of days ago (although it has since dropped off), and new forum memberships have been near monthly highs for the last week. 

As we exit the summer doldrums, expect the price to rise further.

Unfortunately, it looks like I will lose my bet on the price hitting $20 by the end of the month!! =)

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fcmatt
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August 27, 2011, 03:27:59 AM
 #2

We have not even hit the weekend yet..

A lot of miners sell like clock work no matter what the price is. People have a hard time getting funds
into exchanges for the next 48 hours. 1000 bitcoins being sold will drive the price right down to 8 dollars almost.

Until I see a wall, a much bigger wall being created above 8 dollars I do not see a rally coming anytime soon.
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August 27, 2011, 03:33:33 AM
 #3

Remember those huge bid walls that were pulled over the last two days?  That's cash sitting in the exchange, waiting to buy Bitcoins.  Everyone here agrees that most of the walls were pulled before they were sold into, so the cash is still there.

You bears can't have it both ways!

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August 27, 2011, 03:42:25 AM
 #4

Everyone here agrees that most of the walls were pulled before they were sold into, so the cash is still there.
I don’t, haven’t seen a single one of such a wall for a longer time now. I remember the 10k wall for 8.5$ being taken out in an instant (someone selling 10k BTC into it), smaller walls were killed slower. Also recall no such walls when we took down the 10.5-10 area.

The concept of a "fake wall" is completely silly when it can be taken out in one bite by certain players at once. They are very convenient for those who are looking for a quick exit for their thousands of BTC.

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August 27, 2011, 03:45:09 AM
 #5

You make an excellent point. But what was the point of those lower value bid walls? I would guess to give confidence to buyers
to prop up the price or even spur a rally. Once the price fell and ate at some of those higher bid walls they disappeared.
So that means they were not truly serious with all that money at lower price points. I would also wonder if not truly serious they probably
already own a significant amount of btc already and do not want more unless dirt cheap.

So with that said.. i would not expect them to come back until they are ready to create another confidence building
atmosphere and that will not happen until fresh money comes in to bring the price back up to 10..

But i do not think enough fresh money will come in anytime soon.

but then i am just rambling. I do not have that much skin in the game and I am probably wrong.

1450 BTC being sold and we are at 8 dollars... hard to argue with that right now...
and also ?250? BTC being created every hour...
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August 27, 2011, 06:39:31 AM
 #6

LoL.. The drop ain't over.
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August 27, 2011, 06:45:32 AM
 #7

if genius says the worst isn't over, then it prob is......

you are the best contrarian indicator for btc that i know, lol
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August 27, 2011, 06:49:48 AM
 #8

A lot of miners sell like clock work no matter what the price is. People have a hard time getting funds
into exchanges for the next 48 hours. 1000 bitcoins being sold will drive the price right down to 8 dollars almost.

Most traders keep money in the exchanges ready for market moves such as this.  We know the price tends to fall on or around weekends.  The traders know this.  Why would they pull money out of the exchanges and think, for maybe the 20th time, 'Damn, if only I could get money into the exchanges.  Now I need to wait until Monday!'  The answer is, they don't.


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August 27, 2011, 01:14:12 PM
 #9

I wouldn't quite call this an over correction unless it's to the upside. Atm the ticker says 8.8 but with almost no support. Those so called "fake walls" add at least a bit of backing to any rally that might be going on. A rally with no support isn't really a rally.

Google trends have been up a bit and there have been a ton of recent stories but on the whole not much is going to happen unless we start to see some support being built up. I don't think most most people with just a tiny bit of financial sense would be willing to buy in at a level where the price could be dropped over 10% by a low-end of midlevel player.

Britcoin for example has done incredibly well during this correction as it has had fairly solid support most of the way down and up again. Britcoin even had huge orders (by Britcoin standards 1-200BTC) that people could have sold into while covering on Mt Gox and elsewhere and coming out with fairly solid 20-50 cents gains per coin (converting GBP to USD) over a large part of the drop just from pushing a few buttons.

Unless Mt Gox can develop a similar level of client backing then this is going to happen again and again.

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August 27, 2011, 02:14:19 PM
 #10

The market switched to bull mode today. Yesterday it was in bear mode. But _the_ indicator right now is that while in bull mode the volumes are WAY lower than what the volumes are when in bear mode. So the conclusion is that for the mid-term we're definitely in heavy bear mode. Only a rally with high volumes could signal a real change.

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August 27, 2011, 02:20:41 PM
 #11

Your assessment is correct. Based on form of the pattern and volume, we will likely see the next wave of selling.


Only a strong , big volume move above 12 or 14 $ would change that. Very likely, even 10.5 $ is a big resistance level.


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August 27, 2011, 02:48:33 PM
 #12

So, here's the last big drop:



It looks to me like we're forming an almost identical pattern.

Here's the current situation:

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August 27, 2011, 04:04:45 PM
 #13

If it follows the same type of pattern I would guess $3 - 4 would be the low.
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August 27, 2011, 04:57:24 PM
 #14

You have to remember that the previous fall to $5.xx was driven by emotion - we had the Polish exchange vaporize and the disappearance of mybitcoin.com.   This time around, all we have are speculators who hoped for a quick return coming off the Bitcoin Conference that are pulling the plug.  This is hardly the same situation.

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August 27, 2011, 06:43:36 PM
 #15

Indeed. Everything about Bitcoin fundamentals is going fairly well right now. No bad news, some good news. Trends are doing okay such as google trends and forum memberships. I seriously doubt a new low of below $5.

We might see a new low below the last one but I think $4.xx is almost impossible, there is simply no fundamental reason for it to go that low. The demand at $5.xx will be absolutely massive, those are truly cheap coins.

In fact I'm very surprised if the price breaks below the resistance levels at $6.xx, but I guess we'll see.

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August 28, 2011, 05:25:10 AM
 #16

I think we are going to bottom out to 7$ and then rise up again...

GoWest
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August 28, 2011, 01:23:40 PM
 #17

Starting to see some bullish volume this morning.  $8.85.

gw4tt
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August 28, 2011, 04:46:29 PM
 #18

Doesn't look bullish to me at all.

Only about $48k worth of BTC to push it below $8 - about $380K worth on the sell side.

There's plenty of pressure to go down.
GoWest
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August 28, 2011, 05:30:16 PM
 #19

Doesn't look bullish to me at all.

Only about $48k worth of BTC to push it below $8 - about $380K worth on the sell side.

There's plenty of pressure to go down.

You could have said the same thing five days ago.  There was a ton of bids compared to asks, but the price dropped anyway.  I think we've all learned that the bid walls and ask walls are virtually meaningless.

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August 28, 2011, 05:33:20 PM
 #20

Doesn't look bullish to me at all.

Only about $48k worth of BTC to push it below $8 - about $380K worth on the sell side.

There's plenty of pressure to go down.

You could have said the same thing five days ago.  There was a ton of bids compared to asks, but the price dropped anyway.  I think we've all learned that the bid walls and ask walls are virtually meaningless.

Yep, learned that lesson the hard way myself, never bet on a bid/sell wall!

My small loss was well worth the education! Cheesy

If anything I love about bitcoin, it's a perfect small cap, highly liquid and volatile market, just the place for a newbie trader to grit their teeth and learn.
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