A Chinese look at the situation in China

[zhangweiwu]

In the previous posts I correctly predicted China government's attitude towards Bitcoin, and the month-long spike of Chinese bitcoin price. I also warned against China-lead crash. I haven't posted anything for about 2 months since, for my hands are full.

I will first list a few outlandish view points of Chinese market popular on this forum.

Myth: Money moves power in China. In the end money decides.
Reality: Power moves money. If you are responsible for something big, there are times you have to make a choice, to choose between profit and loyalty. In the end loyalty is the bright choice, profit is the gloomy choice that begins your downward career. If you make the wrong choice, not only you have to acknowledge failures, but you need to acknowledge it willingly and faithfully, because that behaviour is loyal. I often wonder why many westenrs are readily willing to accept a theory if that theory involves money powered political decisions - which does happen but are not mainstream here. In the bitcoin game, the financial institutes, even the ones not owned by our government, will face the choice and their decision is predictable. If some financial insitutes allows bitcoin to live (like huobi's case), it is because their time of choice hasn't come, not because they chose differently.

Myth: Chinese citizens won't be able to withdraw cash from bitcoin platforms.
Reality: Time and time again I see westerns and western-educated Chinese trying to read the sense out of paper notificcations. The correct method is to understand the ruler's intention, not the ruler's order. Doing what the order says only garantee you are not punished for disobeying that particular order. One of the intention of the ban is to prevent social unrest, the less noisy the better. Banning withdraw is going to create unwanted outcry which defeats the purpose of the 5th Dec ban, further more it unnecessarily creates a confrontation between government and traders (before was trader<-> platforms). Once you see the intenion, you know withdraw will be allowed, if not enforced. Most likely withdraw will be through the banks for better records.

A short culture background info on loyalty vs regulation:

Regulation = if you go aginst the rule, you will be punished. Undersand the intention of the rule. You are rewarded by wining the game following the rule.
Loyalty = I can punsih you any time, from a database of regulations, or without any regulation (like how Apple is punished). Understand the intention of the ruler. I will reward you.
(Edit: In China that I is the party.)

Myth: Motivation is for Chinese government to prevent outflow of CNY.
Reality: If you think along that line, you may misjudge and predict that regulation will replace the ban. Bitcoin creates 3 problems: 1) an example of ignorance of central power; 2) a possibility of social unrest at the market crash; 3) outflow and money lundry. Of these three the last is the least important (it is still important but least) and a more sounding reason. Our government wishes by sheer authority the market can cool down. I think if it is cooled down, it will be allowed to exist, otherwise it will be harshly killed.

Myth: Like Hong Kong, Shanghai Free Trade Zone respects rules
Reality: Hong Kong maintained its system because people defend it as a bottom line: it is not rules that worked, it is people that worked (to defend rules). Our government never liked that HK culture but cannot simply chop it. There is no similiar culture background in Shanghai. Shanghai Free Trade Zone is where various new things are allowed to live longer so that the government can see what kind of fruit it begets, which one benifits, which one isn't, and select what they want; chop off unwanted - like Special Economic Zone we had before. Hong Kong is a free trade zone, Shanghai Free Trade Zone is a controlled experiment. Like all experiment, you the bad seed are allowed to live longer because you are more closely watched. When they feels certain that your bad seed is weed, they won't let it grow.

Now the current situation:

The sentiment after 89' is that if government want to destory an enemy inside China, it will be done (unless it is too abstract to kill, like, an idea). Not everyone agrees, but that's the general sentiment. Since 5th Dec, believing in the power of the government, the market attention dramaticallly moved to alternatives like LiteCoin. Not only they have more potential of growth (so thinks the Chinese investors), but also they are small enough to live longer under the radar. I didn't even look at the data but I believe BTC trade volume shrinked a lot, sentiment cooled down, exactly as government's wish. China crash influnced global market once. However the global market won't always follow. The rest of the world is going to promote and increase value of bitcoin, and traders in China won't sit and watch. Two things may happen in 2014:

1. Firmly believing that the government have control, China maintains low price and become a bitccoin export country, and receive moderate media coverage. Bitcoin is thus allowed to live.
2. The spikes in global market calls again the passion in China. And when our spirite of gambling is lit up, anoher spike in China and warm media coverage in China will lead a harsher ban from the government, probably force bitcoin into black market.

It is possible 2 happens after 1.

P.S. This post is sent through a web proxy in U.S. The author is still living in China. And the telltale timestamp means I couldn't sleep well tonight, hence having time to write a post.

[T.Stuart]

Thank you very much for your post.

It is very interesting to read what you say about regulation and royalty.

It is also great to hear your predictions, which give a balanced view of possibilities and steer away from simplistic black and white proposals.

The general gut feeling I have been having about the evolution of Bitcoin in China is along the lines you describe.

"China crash influnced global market once. However the global market won't always follow."

There are signs already that BTC China is lagging behind Bitstamp and Gox. My gut feeling is that many people here are now coming to terms with the idea of China not leading the market.

You propose a couple of ideas as outcomes:

"1. Firmly believing that the government have control, China maintains low price and become a bitccoin export country, and receive moderate media coverage. Bitcoin is thus allowed to live.

2. The spikes in global market calls again the passion in China. And when our spirite of gambling is lit up, anoher spike in China and warm media coverage in China will lead a harsher ban from the government, probably force bitcoin into black market."

I am not sure how long proposal 1 could hold. The excitement over Bitcoin is increasing and there are consistent signs that it is just beginning to break into the mainstream in areas such as e-commerce, investments, finance, etc. There are of course diverse opinions but it seems certain that there will be increased investment in the short to mid term at least, which should have the predictable effect on prices. It could well be the case that the Chinese spirit is lit up by this, as you say!  

In which case a possible scenario where Bitcoin could become a black market commodity in China could play out.

In any case could you give us an idea of the Bitcoin community in China? Is it very diverse? Many tech-types? Big investors? A plaything of the elite? Sorry if this sounds like a stupid question but it would be interesting to know your opinion about what kind of people hold Bitcoin now, and also about what kind of people would continue to hold Bitcoin if scenario 2 plays out.

Thanks again.

[Miz4r]

Myth: Money moves power in China. In the end money decides.
Reality: Power moves money. If you are responsible for something big, there are times you have to make a choice, to decide between profit and royalty. In the end royalty is the bright choice, profit is the gloomy choice that leads your career downward. If you make the wrong choice, not only you have to acknowledge failures, but you need to acknowledge it willingly and faithfully, because that behaviour is royal. I often wonder why many westenrs are readily willing to accept a theory if that theory involves money powered political decisions - which do happens but are not mainstream here. In the bitcoin game, the financial institutes, even the ones not owned by our government, will face the choice and their decision is predictable. If some financial insitutes allows bitcoin to live, it is because their time of choice hasn't come, not because they chose profit over royalty.

I don't really understand what royalty means in this context. Are they the authorities, the government?

Myth: Motivation is for Chinese government to prevent outflow of CNY.
Reality: If you think along that line, you may misjudge and predict that regulation will replace the ban. Bitcoin creates 3 problems: 1) an example of ignorance of central power; 2) a possibility of social unrest at the market crash; 3) outflow and money lundry. Of these three the last is the least important (it is still important but least) and a more sounding reason. Our government wishes by sheer authority the market can cool down. I think if it is cooled down, it will be allowed to exist, otherwise it will be harshly killed.

But if they harshly kill it (or push it underground) won't that cause a market crash and social unrest? Then they are causing exactly that which they are trying to prevent... And if they're so concerned about the decentralized nature of Bitcoin why won't they just outright ban it right now? Why would they even allow positive media messages to appear on tv about bitcoin first and only do something about it when lots of people have already invested in it and thus causing more social unrest?

Thanks for replying and clarifying the Chinese point of view in here by the way, it is much appreciated.

[MatTheCat]

A very interesting perspective zhangweiwu.

Thanks for going to the trouble.

I don't really understand what royalty means in this context. Are they the authorities, the government?

I think much is lost in translation here and the author would struggle to find fitting terms in English regardless of his ability in the language...

....I guess dignity, respectful for tradition, honourably, etc etc.

[zhangweiwu]

I think much is lost in translation here and the author would struggle to find fitting terms in English regardless of his ability in the language...

....I guess dignity, respectful for tradition, honourably, etc etc.

You guessed it right. I meant Loyalty and I misspelled it Royalty. Many Chinese pronounce R and L rather alike and they write it alike.

I corrected my post with a search and replace. And Loyalty is "loyalty to the party" (sometimes colorfully reworded as "royalty to the people" - that expression used to be "formality red", now is "rehorical pink" color). I have added an Edit Note in the text.

[toddfletcher]

Thanks for this post, for non-Chinese your insight is really useful.

[yomofo]

so what are the price predictions?  will the govt crackdown on the huobi deposits and btcchina vouchers?  is it real trading or bots?

[fr33d0miz3r]

so what are the price predictions?

down.

[jubalix]

(unless it is too abstract to kill, like, an idea) = bitcoin

[HairyMaclairy]

Thank you for taking the time to post while you could not sleep.  

You have made many important points which I will consider carefully.  Please come back and share your thoughts with us more often.

[gnode]

Unfortunately, there is still a lot of uncertainty about what will happen if anything come Jan 31st. Market is on hold until then.

[hdbuck]

Thanks for that clear review on china! 

[molecular]

Thanks for some perspective on Chinese culture.

That "choice" thing is interesting and the part about following ruler intention versus following regulation.

[Milotyc]

Tyvm bro very informative stuff

[BitchicksHusband]

Yes, most helpful.  Thanks.

[Mikcik]

No sorry, i just skim read it, but i didnt get it, just another BS about some principles, ethics etc. Sorry, nobody cares :-).

I really didnt get the point of your post, so do you think your government will ban bitcoin or not, or are the possibilities 50% to 50%?

[MatTheCat]

No sorry, i just skim read it, but i didnt get it, just another BS about some principles, ethics etc. Sorry, nobody cares :-).

I really didnt get the point of your post, so do you think your government will ban bitcoin or not, or are the possibilities 50% to 50%?

FFS!

Welcome to my ignore list u damn rude ignorant fool.

[Alonzo Ewing]

Thank you for the post.

One thing I find fascinating is the idea that the govt has the best interests of China as a whole in mind.  To an American like me, that seems too unbelievable to be true.  We are used to our govt using power to help themselves and their cronies at the expense of the people.  A libertarian like me believes everyone in govt is screwing the majority to help the few.  Democrats believe the Republicans are screwing the majority to help their few friends, and Democrats vice versa.  Either way, most Americans think they're being screwed.  It seems strange that people in the Chinese govt place loyalty above profit.

A question for you regarding the future.

What if Bitcoin takes off in the rest of the world?  What if it reaches a much higher price, i.e., $100,000, or similar, and achieves price stability, thereby making it a useful medium of exchange?  What if Bitcoin actual does what us dreamers desire:  a replacement for the dollar, euro, etc.?  

Will the Chinese govt still ban Bitcoin even if it looks like China will be "left behind"?

[EvilPanda]

Hard to predict what will happen but I liked your explanation, OP. Your first prediction is similar to what some smart people posted here a month ago. Unfortunately the crowd was already screaming in panic and running towards the exit.

[Equilux]

Thank you very much for taking the time to explain some fairly complex structures of Chinese market. This is an interesting view which helps me fill in a lot of details. I'm also interested in what kind of people are currently interested in Bitcoin, like T.Stuart was asking?