A Chinese look at the situation in China

[segeln]

+1 ,as always.OP !

[Torque]

It's great to have insight from a man on the ground over there. Much appreciated Zhang, please keep us informed.

I will do so from http://bitcoinblog.de/ in the future. The two latest article I wrote for it are:
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/16/china-if-bitcoin-remains-small-it-will-be-allowed-to-live/
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/12/its-not-a-survivors-game-its-a-losers-game/

Hey, thanks for the articles.  Very nicely written.

On the second one though, I have to debate you on a few topics:

"Even Bitcoin’s global events seem to support this vast ego. China was the reason for the last bitcoin peak, and it’s the reason for its fall. Western news still maintains that 83% of bitcoins are traded in USD. ‘It must be fake’ say the Chinese bitcoin players. ‘The West faked their trade volume. The truth is that 83% of bitcoins are traded in CNY and USD traders are just following our lead, over-reacting to our market movements from time to time.’ Facing the Bitcoin Foundation’s failure, the Chinese started Bit Foundation, and although the imitation version is rarely mentioned in the west, the original was rarely heard of in China. And when the west is sick of China crying wolf about the ‘ban’, the Chinese are sick of westerners ‘spreading rumours’. ‘Trust no more English sources please’, one person said at a Bitcoin event."

This is just laughable.  Do Chinese bitcoiners really believe that the West is just overreacting whenever a Chinese news source prints FUD of another 'ban', and it's clearly Huobi, OKCoin, and BTCChina LEADING the sell off, not Bitstamp or Bitfinex?  Do Chinese bitcoiners really believe that they can't trust English news sources on bitcoin, but CAN trust Chinese news sources? (if so, then wow).

Can you also tell me why Chinese bitcoiners trust the Chinese exchanges so much over the Western exchanges, when none of the Chinese exchanges have submitted themselves to an unbiased proof-of-reserve audit of their holdings?  Just blind trust, huh?

"...Americans talk of alibaba as yet another Chinese imitation. Yet Alibaba win a PR favor in China by never touching morality topic, never shy away from a fierce fight – with such an image a western company is doomed to fail, in the West."

What does this mean?  And if means what I think it means, then tell me how the Chinese exchanges are not just bowing down to the PBOC and not shying away from a fierce fight?

[zhangweiwu]

I wrote answer to your questions, but I realized it is off topic before posting, so will you be so kind to post it there on the bitcoinblog.de and I'll paste my answer there? Or you can post to the reddit page of this article and I'll follow up there. I can answer the last part here because the last one question challanged my logic.

"What does this mean?  And if means what I think it means, then tell me how the Chinese exchanges are not just bowing down to the PBOC and not shying away from a fierce fight?"

Answer: Isreal bow to their God and do not shy away from the fierce battles. You don't fight God, however you can fight your enemy in the competition of who can do more bows to to God per minute (or how many hours you bow to your God without resting). Smarter fighters guess God's intention and execute it without being ordered, thus win battles by gaining God's favor. (PBOC is not God himself, but the government is a united body, the communist party is the soul, which is God. nothing co-signed by 5-ministries are not party's will so you bow to it.)

In my article I consistantly use the world "Lord" for the central government. Here I use God for the party to make a stronger point. You will notice that in my Bitcoin speculation articles, I am consitantly speculating the Lord's intention, a skill I received training in China and most senior managers are well trained of. My latest article published today is also a speculation of Lord's intention, but only German version is published - English perhaps tomorrow:
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/05/11/china-der-bitcoin-ist-kein-ungezogenes-kind-er-ist-falsch-geboren/

[tupelo]

Interesting. Thanks for your valuable perspective!

[Torque]

I wrote answer to your questions, but I realized it is off topic before posting, so will you be so kind to post it there on the bitcoinblog.de and I'll paste my answer there? Or you can post to the reddit page of this article and I'll follow up there. I can answer the last part here because the last one question challanged my logic.

"What does this mean?  And if means what I think it means, then tell me how the Chinese exchanges are not just bowing down to the PBOC and not shying away from a fierce fight?"

Answer: Isreal bow to their God and do not shy away from the fierce battle. You don't fight God, however you can fight your enemy in the competition of who can do more bows to to God per minute (or how many hours you bow to your God without resting). Smarter fighters guess God's intention and execute it without being ordered, thus win battles by gaining God's favor. (PBOC is not God himself, but the government is a united body, the communist party is the soul, which is God. nothing co-signed by 5-ministries are not party's will so you bow to it)

Thanks for the reply.  I guess in the West we really do see things differently, as here we hardly see bowing down to the government or authority as "putting up a fierce fight."  Quite the opposite, we see it as cowardliness, as fear, as giving in.  Survival at the expense of freedom (that is, not having so many severe restrictions that daily business becomes impossible) is not survival at all.  It is oppression.  It is living in a prison.

Also in the West, our government would NEVER allow pro-bitcoin infomercials to be run on national/state television, thus giving stamp of approval encouraging our people to buy it, and then turn around 6 months later and basically outlaw it.

[zhangweiwu]

Thanks for the reply.  I guess in the West we really do see things differently, as here we hardly see bowing down to the government or authority as "putting up a fierce fight."  Quite the opposite, we see it as cowardliness, as fear, as giving in.  Survival at the expense of freedom (that is, not having so many severe restrictions that daily business becomes impossible) is not survival at all.  It is living in a prison.

Thanks for pointing out. Having watched Rigoletto a few years ago I started to consider the difference between China and the West is more like the difference between "Medieval and Enlightenment", than the difference between "Confucius and Socrates". That is, if Shakespeare comes to China now, he feels more homy (culture-speaking) than if he comes to current day England.

[segeln]

My latest article published today is also a speculation of Lord's intention, but only German version is published - English perhaps tomorrow:
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/05/11/china-der-bitcoin-ist-kein-ungezogenes-kind-er-ist-falsch-geboren/

thanks for posting.
As a german I appreciate it very much

[N12]

zhangweiwu,

Would you say that it is likely that the way this continues with the Chinese exchanges defying the PBOC is, there will be a first arrest/raid of an exchange?

[Asrael999]

zhangweiwu,

Would you say that it is likely that the way this continues with the Chinese exchanges defying the PBOC is, there will be a first arrest/raid of an exchange?

the warrants are probably written, the bullets yet to be paid for

[hdbuck]

zhangweiwu,

Would you say that it is likely that the way this continues with the Chinese exchanges defying the PBOC is, there will be a first arrest/raid of an exchange?

the warrants are probably written, the bullets yet to be paid for

i heard that in china, they make the condemned's family pay for da bullet?

[zhangweiwu]

Would you say that it is likely that the way this continues with the Chinese exchanges defying the PBOC is, there will be a first arrest/raid of an exchange?

Well, there is no way to not to defy the PBOC at all. "How to train your dragon" has this in the cartoon:

"The problem is HERE!"
"You just pointed at all of me!"

Their existance is an offence.

There will unlikely be an arrest / raid, because that sort of thing should happen before the event escalate to central government, when the central government can always blame lower level for the blood. Since this issue is brought to central (The Lord) as early as Dec 2013, there is no space for bloody action. You won't hear someone buying execution bullet with 0.001฿, sorry. Put to consideration of foreign capital involvement, bloody action backfires PR trouble. I had speculated the possibility of blood and picturesque scene, but that was in October before PBOC announcement. After PBOC announcement, no blood. Your life is guaranteed.

What more likely is a strong ban, a national 'illegal exchanges cleanse' action to rule the exchanges outlaw and ask them to settle and stop exchange business before a certain date. They may also take down a few non-bitcoin exchanges, e.g. underground stock broker, to weaken Bitcoin's publicity and to incriminate Bitcoin by putting it together with other guilty financial schemes.

The second on the candidate list is a ban from non-PBOC entity (most likely Ministry of Industry and Information or Ministry of Commerce) for any commercial activities related to Bitcoin - this second possibility won't happen in May, because one weak ban after anther weak ban in short interval weakens Lord's image. After all you should fear the Lord, not to play hide-and-seek.

The third is our Lord's backup plan. Question one exchange about insolvency (typically largest of all targets), force it to actually be insolvency, and use state media propoganda machine to paint Bitcoin evil and black, from birth, with news, documentaries, radio etc etc. This plan is really not needed: as "Art of War" said, letting it die peacefully is better than killing it in fight, and thanks to the Internet, change attitude that radically would harm the reign. It happens only if die-hard bitcoin believers started some activities that calls a lot of atention OR the state decide to take down a die-hard enemy similar in influnce of Bitcoin, and by killing Bitcoin in a confrontation, save the need to do it again for a harder enemy (for the time being, the harder enemy is either P2P lending business or Alibaba, but Alibaba is too smart to need a lesson to teach them, so only P2P lending is left). Both conditions for this level of confrontation are unlikely to happen.

The last outcome: if exchanges all choose to go out of the country, or just do business with cash-at-door on tiny scale, or just choose to close (FxBTC), not trying hosting P2P trading, not trying ATM or vendor machines, then PBOC will say nothing more. However this is also unlikely to happen.

[Asrael999]

zhangweiwu,

Would you say that it is likely that the way this continues with the Chinese exchanges defying the PBOC is, there will be a first arrest/raid of an exchange?

the warrants are probably written, the bullets yet to be paid for

i heard that in china, they make the condemned's family pay for da bullet?

exactly

[jl2012]

zhangweiwu,

Would you say that it is likely that the way this continues with the Chinese exchanges defying the PBOC is, there will be a first arrest/raid of an exchange?

the warrants are probably written, the bullets yet to be paid for

i heard that in china, they make the condemned's family pay for da bullet?

Yes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lin_Zhao (not mentioned in the English wikipedia)

[T.Stuart]

The last outcome: if exchanges all choose to go out of the country... then PBOC will say nothing more.

Wouldn't this course of action be a whole lot simpler for everyone? (in an ideal world of course)

[jl2012]

The last outcome: if exchanges all choose to go out of the country, or just do business with cash-at-door on tiny scale, or just choose to close (FxBTC), not trying P2P trading, not trying ATM or vendor machines, then PBOC will say nothing more. However this is also unlikely to happen.

P2P trading is fine, because there is no need to establish a P2P trading site in China and the operator could remain mostly anonymous. Just like the first P2P trading site in China, they intentionally refuse to register (beian) with the government: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=589158.msg6472369#msg6472369 .

[Torque]

Another question for you zhangweiwu:

One of your articles discusses the notion that if "bitcoin remains small, the Chinese exchanges will be allowed to live."

So in that context, if the Chinese exchange operators know this, then how do you know that it's not the Chinese exchange operators themselves that are spreading false bitcoin news to incite panic and keep the price suppressed?  Or perhaps even using other unethical or shady means to do so?  Wouldn't it be in their best interests that the bitcoin price never rises ever again, and a rally never happen again, so that they get to stay in the PBOC's good graces and thus stay in business indefinitely?  I would think that they really don't care what the btc exchange rate is, as long as the fees keep coming in and they are not shut down.

[dreamspark]

Another question for you zhangweiwu:

One of your articles discusses the notion that if "bitcoin remains small, the Chinese exchanges will be allowed to live."

So in that context, if the Chinese exchange operators know this, then how do you know that it's not the Chinese exchange operators themselves that are spreading false bitcoin news to incite panic and keep the price suppressed?  Or perhaps even using other immoral or shady means to do so?  Wouldn't it be in their best interests that the bitcoin price never rises ever again, and a rally never happen again, so that they get to stay in the PBOC's good graces and thus stay in business indefinitely?  I would think that they really don't care what the btc exchange rate is, as long as the fees keep coming in and they are not shut down.

I too would be interested in the answer to this question. I think its difficult to get a hold of how big Bitcoin actually is in any country and also how much money exchanges are actually dealing with.

At the end of the day an exchange may do $1mm of a trade a day but most of that is internal database stuff, the actual amount coming into and out of the exchange is likely nowhere near that an I wouldn't of thought it would even be enough to get central government interested.