Can we trust mining profitability comparaison websites?

[wolfshore]

Hi everyone, I am a little confused now;
I always go to http://dustcoin.com/ to check the most profitable coin to mine.
I was mining Dogecoin since 2 weeks but tonight, I've see that DIGITALCOIN was 950 % profitable /LTC instead of the usual 120-150% for Dogecoin
so I've transferred all my miners to mine DIGITALCOIN; now the profitability went down to 100% and I've earned 16 DGC in one hour (as usual), nothing has changed.

- How is it possible?
- Can we trust comparaison websites?

I've saw that we could earn 32500$/month (with my rigs) if the profitability stayed like this but it came back to the usual 3200$/month.

I think that it is only possible if someone had a big monopoly on this currency, took it off and put it back. Isn't it?

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[Chohannes]

There is a calculator that does take into account the up and coming difficulty but I can't remember what i was.. n'or find it

[CaptainPicard]

I've seen some very odd behavior, in particular with Coinchoose.  I would be wary of any sites like this that also manage their own pools.

Why not do your own research?  I find that picking two or three coins that I feel have potential and sticking with them has been the most profitable way to go.  This way you can follow them closely, know when diff changes are about to occur, and have a better feel for the market direction at any given time.

Multipool's go against the greater good of the community as a whole.  They often bring in 10x the normal hashrate of the coin then abandon it when the difficulty rises.  This leaves the coin stuck in a state where blocks are being solved far less frequently than intended.  This is good for no coin.

Even ASIC manufacturers have the decency to give up huge profit potential by only selling and shipping a limited supply of ASICs to the market to battle this kind of disruption.

[boxofspuds]

Hi everyone, I am a little confused now;
I always go to http://dustcoin.com/ to check the most profitable coin to mine.
I was mining Dogecoin since 2 weeks but tonight, I've see that DIGITALCOIN was 950 % profitable /LTC instead of the usual 120-150% for Dogecoin
so I've transferred all my miners to mine DIGITALCOIN; now the profitability went down to 100% and I've earned 16 DGC in one hour (as usual), nothing has changed.

- How is it possible?
- Can we trust comparaison websites?

I've saw that we could earn 32500$/month (with my rigs) if the profitability stayed like this but it came back to the usual 3200$/month.

I think that it is only possible if someone had a big monopoly on this currency, took it off and put it back. Isn't it?

I also check coinchoose, coinwarz and http://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/calculator

if you are having trust issues with the normal profitability sites, why not calculate the details on your own for whatever wallets you hold?  just need difficulty, hash, current exchange rate of BTC to your alt coin and some basic math/scripts/excel work

[kalus]

coinwarz calculator pointed out correctly the pool i was using for LTC was underperforming. 

metaanalysis from several calculators controlled by different interests would provide a more accurate picture.  however, this seems to be a lot of work due to it being difficult to fortell the future, difficulty flux, hashrate flux, etc.

[boxofspuds]

coinwarz calculator pointed out correctly the pool i was using for LTC was underperforming. 

metaanalysis from several calculators controlled by different interests would provide a more accurate picture.  however, this seems to be a lot of work due to it being difficult to fortell the future, difficulty flux, hashrate flux, etc.

just curious, how did coinwarz point out your pool was underperforming?

[kalus]

just curious, how did coinwarz point out your pool was underperforming?

i was mining for LTC, and ran my hashrate through coinwarz calculator.  it showed i should ahve been making about 10% more than i did.  (n.b. no rejects, no HW).  i switched to another pool and was 7-8% up that same day.

i'm not going to say it was a scam, and i'm not going to name the pool, but it was informative to have a neutral third party's data to compare. 

[boxofspuds]

just curious, how did coinwarz point out your pool was underperforming?

i was mining for LTC, and ran my hashrate through coinwarz calculator.  it showed i should ahve been making about 10% more than i did.  (n.b. no rejects, no HW).  i switched to another pool and was 7-8% up that same day.

i'm not going to say it was a scam, and i'm not going to name the pool, but it was informative to have a neutral third party's data to compare. 

good to know, thanks for the response.  another reason why it is always good to shop around the pools to see which one treats your setup the best.  I'm a bit surprised to see no rejects as it seems everyone always ends up with some miniscule amount.  Also, did you run your hashrate or your accepted rate through the calculator and were you factoring in pool efficiency/stales from the pool? 

[kalus]

just curious, how did coinwarz point out your pool was underperforming?

i was mining for LTC, and ran my hashrate through coinwarz calculator.  it showed i should ahve been making about 10% more than i did.  (n.b. no rejects, no HW).  i switched to another pool and was 7-8% up that same day.

i'm not going to say it was a scam, and i'm not going to name the pool, but it was informative to have a neutral third party's data to compare.  

good to know, thanks for the response.  another reason why it is always good to shop around the pools to see which one treats your setup the best.  I'm a bit surprised to see no rejects as it seems everyone always ends up with some miniscule amount.  Also, did you run your hashrate or your accepted rate through the calculator and were you factoring in pool efficiency/stales from the pool?  

good question!  used a 3 hour average, taken at 5 randomly predetermined times from the pool data.  used a belkin wattmeter to determine average wattage over 10 samples in a 1 hour period.  I have a two tiered elx. usage bill, so i used the higher number of 10.6¢/kwh.   i wanted to see the production as the pool would see it, but look at the expenses incurred from my perspective.  

re:  no rejects, i have cheaper elx. so i run the cards with more volts, and run them at suboptimal settings to favour stability over max performance.  the pool i was using also was LTC exclusive so we didn't do coin hopping; i don't know if that would eliminate stale shares or rejects.

[Lethn]

We can trust them, they're giving accurate data from what I can see on most of the coins but the thing about the mining profitability websites is they only take a very short sighted view based on things like current prices and difficulty. A miner/trader that knows what they're doing will be able to look at all sorts of things the websites can't like whether or not the coin has any active dev team behind it or if it's got a lot of trade volume and velocity going on.