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January 04, 2014, 03:02:02 AM |
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Well a few observations can be made:
Like e-mail is to mail, digital currency is to fiat money.
The fact that the majority of transactions will at some point in the future be digital is extremely likely, I'd put it close to 100%. However, the chance that Bitcoin will become and remain a long-term significant currency is much smaller, e.g. a 50/50. That means there's a good chance another digital currency will become popular. That's why some people invest in it when you can buy a thousand coins for a dollar, if any of these coins ever become worth a single dollar each, 1/800th of the price of a bitcoin, that's a massive profit.
Most of these currencies will simply fail, while others have interesting benefits that Bitcoin doesn't have. (faster transactions for example). Generally though, none of them can deliver on what's needed: momentum, a strong and innovative protocol a large fully decentralized network & ownership, massive user & merchant adoption, favourable opinions from government & media, a strong protocol and barely any monopoly benefits to the founders.
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