For Individuals looking to get into the Mining Game in 2014, please read this!

[2tights]

First off, anyone who is mining is doing so because, to some degree, they believe in Bitcoin. I want to accumulate as many bitcoin as possible, but I'm not comfortable nor do I have the time to trade currencies. Yes, I agree that mathematically speculating directly on the Bitcoin may be more profitable. Maybe. But, then again in depends on the time frame you're looking at as well as if/when you sell your Bitcoin. Also, it should be noted that the USD continues to decrease in value and will eventually be worth less than toilet paper because its so abbrasive

There is a much more simple way to look at it. First, who decides the value of  Bitcoin? Well, we do, actually because we pay what it's worth to us. That being said, I view my speculative bet on mining hardware as a very simple bet. If I had bought my Neptune with bitcoin, it would have cost me about 14 bitcoin. But I purchased with USD, so I'm already ahead of the game because I haven't spent any bitcoin, but I've acquired a method to create bitcoin.

So, as long as I'm able to mine more than 14 bitcoin I have succeeded. Oh yeah, and I still have the machine and depending on its performance I can sell it or continue mining into the sunset.

[bigb159]

In the mining equipment preorder game escrow is a must. The only people in Bitcoin making money are the hardware manufacturers, and the people carrying all the risk and cost are the miners. The current practice is for manufacturers to take Bitcoin on preorders and when they miss their timelines, refund in USD or EUR.

I will never preorder (nor even order for that matter) any Bitcoin hardware except through a reliable escrow service which allows me to release funds only once I've received a machine which lives up to the specs and timelines which were guaranteed.

[crocko]

In the mining equipment preorder game escrow is a must. The only people in Bitcoin making money are the hardware manufacturers, and the people carrying all the risk and cost are the miners. The current practice is for manufacturers to take Bitcoin on preorders and when they miss their timelines, refund in USD or EUR.

I will never preorder (nor even order for that matter) any Bitcoin hardware except through a reliable escrow service which allows me to release funds only once I've received a machine which lives up to the specs and timelines which were guaranteed.

What hardware manufacturer accept escrow ? Please announce me when you see one 
I will give you a free tip : if you buy it with fiat, you have more chances to get ROI 

[iglasses]

A lot of these doom and gloom 'mining is the devil' approaches fail to take into consideration what is happening right now.  In the last two hours BTC has shed %20 of it's value...TWENTY PERCENT people!
For a retail investor who has say 5-10k to work with this is a nightmare.  Imagine two people who began their BTC investment today.  One guy bought 8k worth of hardware and started and the other one bought
7BTC.  Now of course no investment is judged by what happens in such a small time frame but that having been said...

Which one of those two people do you think is having a worse day?
Yes, I know there are plenty of days where it runs the exact opposite.  But even on those days the guy mining can watch his existing and new BTC go up too!

I am still really new here and learning but from what I have seen there is a negative bias towards mining that seems to have it's own agenda.
JMO.

[Entropy-uc]

A lot of these doom and gloom 'mining is the devil' approaches fail to take into consideration what is happening right now.  In the last two hours BTC has shed %20 of it's value...TWENTY PERCENT people!
For a retail investor who has say 5-10k to work with this is a nightmare.  Imagine two people who began their BTC investment today.  One guy bought 8k worth of hardware and started and the other one bought
7BTC.  Now of course no investment is judged by what happens in such a small time frame but that having been said...

Which one of those two people do you think is having a worse day?
Yes, I know there are plenty of days where it runs the exact opposite.  But even on those days the guy mining can watch his existing and new BTC go up too!

I am still really new here and learning but from what I have seen there is a negative bias towards mining that seems to have it's own agenda.
JMO.

Let's take your example for a moment and see where it goes.

So Andy goes out and buys a 2 TH/s miner from scamfast labs for April delivery.  $8000
Brian buys $8000 worth of bitcoin.  10 BTC.

Tomorrow Andy is broke and Brian has 10 BTC.  And it's going to stay that way for a long time.

Fast forward to April:
Brian has 10 BTC.  He might be happy, he might be sad depending on the exchange rate, but he still has 10 BTC.  And he could do whatever he wanted with it at any time.  If bitcoin hit $100k one day and he thought that was too high, he could cash in for $1M and walk away.

Andy still has nothing.  He checks bitcoincharts and sees that the network has crossed 100 Ph/s and is still climbing.  It's going to take 140 days to get to 10 BTC if difficulty stops now, and more like a year if there has been no price appreciation and growth starts slowing.  He better get hashing soon!  Now where is Andy's scamfast machine?  Better check the forums.  Ah, Joe from Scamfast Labs is promising shipment in a couple weeks.  Well that's 1 less bitcoin Andy will ever see, but it's not so bad, I guess, just 2 weeks.  But wait, why is this guy complaining that his January order hasn't shipped yet?  What does that mean for Andy's delivery date?

Brian still has 10 BTC.  Used in hand sytems are selling for 4 BTC / 2 Th/s.  Andy realizes he's a sucker.

[pjviitas]

A lot of these doom and gloom 'mining is the devil' approaches fail to take into consideration what is happening right now.  In the last two hours BTC has shed %20 of it's value...TWENTY PERCENT people!
For a retail investor who has say 5-10k to work with this is a nightmare.  Imagine two people who began their BTC investment today.  One guy bought 8k worth of hardware and started and the other one bought
7BTC.  Now of course no investment is judged by what happens in such a small time frame but that having been said...

Which one of those two people do you think is having a worse day?
Yes, I know there are plenty of days where it runs the exact opposite.  But even on those days the guy mining can watch his existing and new BTC go up too!

I am still really new here and learning but from what I have seen there is a negative bias towards mining that seems to have it's own agenda.
JMO.

Let's take your example for a moment and see where it goes.

So Andy goes out and buys a 2 TH/s miner from scamfast labs for April delivery.  $8000
Brian buys $8000 worth of bitcoin.  10 BTC.

Tomorrow Andy is broke and Brian has 10 BTC.  And it's going to stay that way for a long time.

Fast forward to April:
Brian has 10 BTC.  He might be happy, he might be sad depending on the exchange rate, but he still has 10 BTC.  And he could do whatever he wanted with it at any time.  If bitcoin hit $100k one day and he thought that was too high, he could cash in for $1M and walk away.

Andy still has nothing.  He checks bitcoincharts and sees that the network has crossed 100 Ph/s and is still climbing.  It's going to take 140 days to get to 10 BTC if difficulty stops now, and more like a year if there has been no price appreciation and growth starts slowing.  He better get hashing soon!  Now where is Andy's scamfast machine?  Better check the forums.  Ah, Joe from Scamfast Labs is promising shipment in a couple weeks.  Well that's 1 less bitcoin Andy will ever see, but it's not so bad, I guess, just 2 weeks.  But wait, why is this guy complaining that his January order hasn't shipped yet?  What does that mean for Andy's delivery date?

Brian still has 10 BTC.  Used in hand sytems are selling for 4 BTC / 2 Th/s.  Andy realizes he's a sucker.

To begin with I would like to say that without us "miners"...none of this shit would be possible.  Don't ever forget that the spirit of Bitcoin was that everyone mined at least a little bit.

Secondly, all the mining hardware I have ever sold has been for more than what I paid for it so the hardware is basically free.  Don't forget that a lot of low hashing hardware isn't purchased by people that want to make money right away...they just want to learn the ropes.

[Entropy-uc]

A lot of these doom and gloom 'mining is the devil' approaches fail to take into consideration what is happening right now.  In the last two hours BTC has shed %20 of it's value...TWENTY PERCENT people!
For a retail investor who has say 5-10k to work with this is a nightmare.  Imagine two people who began their BTC investment today.  One guy bought 8k worth of hardware and started and the other one bought
7BTC.  Now of course no investment is judged by what happens in such a small time frame but that having been said...

Which one of those two people do you think is having a worse day?
Yes, I know there are plenty of days where it runs the exact opposite.  But even on those days the guy mining can watch his existing and new BTC go up too!

I am still really new here and learning but from what I have seen there is a negative bias towards mining that seems to have it's own agenda.
JMO.

Let's take your example for a moment and see where it goes.

So Andy goes out and buys a 2 TH/s miner from scamfast labs for April delivery.  $8000
Brian buys $8000 worth of bitcoin.  10 BTC.

Tomorrow Andy is broke and Brian has 10 BTC.  And it's going to stay that way for a long time.

Fast forward to April:
Brian has 10 BTC.  He might be happy, he might be sad depending on the exchange rate, but he still has 10 BTC.  And he could do whatever he wanted with it at any time.  If bitcoin hit $100k one day and he thought that was too high, he could cash in for $1M and walk away.

Andy still has nothing.  He checks bitcoincharts and sees that the network has crossed 100 Ph/s and is still climbing.  It's going to take 140 days to get to 10 BTC if difficulty stops now, and more like a year if there has been no price appreciation and growth starts slowing.  He better get hashing soon!  Now where is Andy's scamfast machine?  Better check the forums.  Ah, Joe from Scamfast Labs is promising shipment in a couple weeks.  Well that's 1 less bitcoin Andy will ever see, but it's not so bad, I guess, just 2 weeks.  But wait, why is this guy complaining that his January order hasn't shipped yet?  What does that mean for Andy's delivery date?

Brian still has 10 BTC.  Used in hand sytems are selling for 4 BTC / 2 Th/s.  Andy realizes he's a sucker.

To begin with I would like to say that without us "miners"...none of this shit would be possible.  Don't ever forget that the spirit of Bitcoin was that everyone mined at least a little bit.

Secondly, all the mining hardware I have ever sold has been for more than what I paid for it so the hardware is basically free.  Don't forget that a lot of low hashing hardware isn't purchased by people that want to make money right away...they just want to learn the ropes.

Go ahead and cite all the cases where you bought hardware for a price in Bitcoin and then sold it for a higher price in Bitcoin.

The only times that has been feasible has been with pre-order flips, in which case you weren't actually a miner.  Just a speculator in mining hardware.

[iglasses]

A lot of these doom and gloom 'mining is the devil' approaches fail to take into consideration what is happening right now.  In the last two hours BTC has shed %20 of it's value...TWENTY PERCENT people!
For a retail investor who has say 5-10k to work with this is a nightmare.  Imagine two people who began their BTC investment today.  One guy bought 8k worth of hardware and started and the other one bought
7BTC.  Now of course no investment is judged by what happens in such a small time frame but that having been said...

Which one of those two people do you think is having a worse day?
Yes, I know there are plenty of days where it runs the exact opposite.  But even on those days the guy mining can watch his existing and new BTC go up too!

I am still really new here and learning but from what I have seen there is a negative bias towards mining that seems to have it's own agenda.
JMO.

Let's take your example for a moment and see where it goes.

So Andy goes out and buys a 2 TH/s miner from scamfast labs for April delivery.  $8000
Brian buys $8000 worth of bitcoin.  10 BTC.

Tomorrow Andy is broke and Brian has 10 BTC.  And it's going to stay that way for a long time.

Fast forward to April:
Brian has 10 BTC.  He might be happy, he might be sad depending on the exchange rate, but he still has 10 BTC.  And he could do whatever he wanted with it at any time.  If bitcoin hit $100k one day and he thought that was too high, he could cash in for $1M and walk away.

Andy still has nothing.  He checks bitcoincharts and sees that the network has crossed 100 Ph/s and is still climbing.  It's going to take 140 days to get to 10 BTC if difficulty stops now, and more like a year if there has been no price appreciation and growth starts slowing.  He better get hashing soon!  Now where is Andy's scamfast machine?  Better check the forums.  Ah, Joe from Scamfast Labs is promising shipment in a couple weeks.  Well that's 1 less bitcoin Andy will ever see, but it's not so bad, I guess, just 2 weeks.  But wait, why is this guy complaining that his January order hasn't shipped yet?  What does that mean for Andy's delivery date?

Brian still has 10 BTC.  Used in hand sytems are selling for 4 BTC / 2 Th/s.  Andy realizes he's a sucker.

That's fair but not exactly what I meant. I was referring to a situation where someone either begins mining or buying same day.

[outsider]

Does the mining game change at all if we're talking scrypt instead of SHA-256 coins?

Yes, you need to dump $10k for a machine that won't be available 3 months from now (if you're lucky) if you're after bitcoins (SHA-256).
I can walk into my local computer store and drop $10k in GPUs and MoBos and start mining scrypt coins today and convert to bitcoin.
Sure there's more work to get a tonne of GPUs working smoothly (never mind heat management), but all that aside, it seems a lot safer to go the scrypt way.

[timk225]

I'd like to propose an alternate theory on what happens to GPU prices / resale value if Litecoin prices do a lumpkin dive.

GPU miners will look on coinwarz.com, see what are the next most profitable Scrypt coins, and then they will look to see which exchanges are taking those coins and converting them into BTC or another coin they want.

Then the miners will point their GPU farms to some other Scrypt coin instead of LiteCoin.

So in conclusion, if Litecoin did crash out in value, I think some GPUs would go up for sale, but the majority of them would just mine some other Scrypt coin.

[studio1one]

you can get 2 x 200 GH/s machines for 5K

they will mine 1BTC a week between them at current difficulty.

with increased difficulty you sould get ROI in 7 weeks.

Seems pretty good to me.

[pjviitas]

Can the speculators please stop trolling the Mining Boards?

[Entropy-uc]

Can the speculators please stop trolling the Mining Boards?

Where exactly do you see this trolling?

[cdog]

A lot of people PM'd me asking for advice on what miner to buy and if this contract or hosted mining is profitable blah blah blah.

People. Reread the original post. If you arent already neck deep into pro-level mining, dont even think of getting in now.

You will be outgunned and outplayed at every possible turn. Mining is at this point a Snipe Hunt or Fools Errand: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snipe_hunt

Nobody like bad news. Nobody likes hearing that their grand plans are actually a pipe dream.

Swallow your pride and save your money, unless you want to make a donation to mining manufacturers and Bitcoin network, which is surely appreciated.

[pjviitas]

A lot of people PM'd me asking for advice on what miner to buy and if this contract or hosted mining is profitable blah blah blah.

People. Reread the original post. If you arent already neck deep into pro-level mining, dont even think of getting in now.

You will be outgunned and outplayed at every possible turn. Mining is at this point a Snipe Hunt or Fools Errand: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snipe_hunt

Nobody like bad news. Nobody likes hearing that their grand plans are actually a pipe dream.

Swallow your pride and save your money, unless you want to make a donation to mining manufacturers and Bitcoin network, which is surely appreciated.

"Bitcoin network, which is surely appreciated."  Thank you.

Some of us just like playing around with tech...helping out a cause while making a few satoshis on the side is just bonus.

[byt411]

If you are trying to mine for profit, then you should get out as soon as possible, since you are no different from the government idiots that think BitCoin is a "High Risk Investment Product with low ROI".
If you hope that bitcoin will eventually replace the current meaningless pieces of paper, then i take my hat off to you. Continue mining. Even if you have a very low hashrate, you are still contributing to the network.

That's all i'm saying.

[graphicsdump]

you can get 2 x 200 GH/s machines for 5K

they will mine 1BTC a week between them at current difficulty.

with increased difficulty you sould get ROI in 7 weeks.

Seems pretty good to me.

How accurate are profitability calculators? According to all of the ones I've checked, profitability will go way down in about 5 months from now. It seems that the next three to four months are all that are left for mining in the black.

I want to jump in, but difficulty is not making an investment in hardware very attractive.

[traiz]

you can get 2 x 200 GH/s machines for 5K

they will mine 1BTC a week between them at current difficulty.

with increased difficulty you sould get ROI in 7 weeks.

Seems pretty good to me.

How accurate are profitability calculators? According to all of the ones I've checked, profitability will go way down in about 5 months from now. It seems that the next three to four months are all that are left for mining in the black.

I want to jump in, but difficulty is not making an investment in hardware very attractive.

It's a risk you have to take. Do you believe that the 3 TH machines will be released on schedule, and are you slated to get one? Alternatively, do you have access to the latest 650 GH/s machines?
If you're not, I wouldn't bother mining BTC. - Look into alt-coins or arbitrage in the financial markets (ie, trade 1 crypto currency for another)

My personal estimate is that a 650 GH/s machine has about 14 BTC left in its life, so if you want to get one, bid appropriately.
disclaimer - I have a batch 1 KNC Neptune on order that I'm thinking about cancelling since the batch 2 comes out a month later, and if it follows KNC's historical info, it will probably be faster

[CatCoin]

Does the mining game change at all if we're talking scrypt instead of SHA-256 coins?

Yes, you need to dump $10k for a machine that won't be available 3 months from now (if you're lucky) if you're after bitcoins (SHA-256).
I can walk into my local computer store and drop $10k in GPUs and MoBos and start mining scrypt coins today and convert to bitcoin.
Sure there's more work to get a tonne of GPUs working smoothly (never mind heat management), but all that aside, it seems a lot safer to go the scrypt way.

It sounds like your local computer store has somehow managed to obtain more GPU stock than anywhere else on earth at the moment (unless you want to get gouged by Newegg, anyway).

[okimzti]

weird...I just started mining 3 weeks ago and have nearly broke even.  I should see profits next week.  How is mining not profitable???