I have been mining with ASICs since beginning of November, and I cant complain. It is true that every second week, profitability takes a hit, however it still needs to take a lot of hits for profitability to become 0.
Right now a
KNC Jupiter makes only 0.15 BTC per day. I am sure in a month, it will be half of that. Still, 0.15 BTC per day means that I will pocket in the coming 2 weeks US$ 1600. (electricity for 2 weeks is less than $50).
If the difficulty rise continues at these crazy rates of 20% every 2 weeks (difficulty increases every 2 weeks, then that is the only valid period for BTC calculations), that means that I will make the next 2 week periods: $ 1250, $1000, 800, 600, 480, 380, 290, 220, 170, 130, 90, 60, 40, 30, 16, 5, -4, -12, -17, ...
So I would still be able to get about $5000 assuming the difficulty increases exponentially forever.
Luckily, that will not be the case. Because for every time profitability goes to half, it means that hashing power needs to double. If right now there would be 50 000 ASIC computers, next month it will need to be 100 000. Next month 200 000, then 400 000, 800 000, 1 600 000, etc.
Any business putting lots of money, they can not do that unless they can recover the investment within a year, and get an acceptable income for the coming years. Very soon that business logic will break (profits low enough to scare the big money), then network hashing power will stabilize.
Notice that if I stop mining because it is not profitable, then 90% of the network hashing power will also be in the exactly same situation, and they will also stop mining. Then the theory that hashing power will keep increasing is flawed. Hashing power is increasing right now, but it is very short sighted to think that it will keep doing that forever.
Besides mining with Jupiters, I am also waiting for few Neptunes. And I do think that I will end this 2014 with more money than what
I paid for the Neptunes.So, just a different approach to analyze the bitcoin mining profitability for 2014-2017.