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Author Topic: Which graph is more useful and why?  (Read 1227 times)
jack102938
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August 28, 2011, 05:12:55 PM
 #1

Normal Vs Log

If you look at the Log graph then it does not really resemble the classic "bubble" that everyone keeps harping on about... what gives  Undecided
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YoYa
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August 28, 2011, 05:39:00 PM
 #2

Normal Vs Log

If you look at the Log graph then it does not really resemble the classic "bubble" that everyone keeps harping on about... what gives  Undecided

Nobody is really sure at the moment, the 30$ mark was a short intense blip that if you look at it on a short time scale seems like a bubble. The log shows a sideways consolidation pattern, which is why there is uncertainty around how things will go. Were BTC to drop to 2, then I think that would absolutely validate the bubble scenario, but I doubt this will happen somehow.
mmortal03
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August 28, 2011, 10:38:43 PM
 #3

I go by the log chart, just like anyone else that takes this stuff seriously.  The people calling it a bubble by looking at the short term linear chart are newbies. That isn't to say that it won't still crash, but it won't be because some linear chart informed us of anything.
fcmatt
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August 29, 2011, 12:02:01 AM
 #4

I go by the "normal" chart, just like anyone else who does not take bitcoin seriously. The people calling bitcoin stable by looking at the log
chart are experts. That isn't to say that it will not skyrocket to the moon, but it won't be because some log chart informed us of anything.

just poking fun.

How can looking at a different chart showing the same exact data but in a different way make someone a newb or an expert?
The data being shown barely warrants a log chart and in my opinion actually makes it more difficult to interpret except for
percentage change but it does not even have the lines representing that as I look at it now. Sure I can click the percentage
scale.. but I am used to figuring that out myself with linear graphs due to being used to them.

Now if the bitcoin price was all over the place.... .00001 to 10,000... Log would probably be more useful to everyone.

But i can be wrong.

BTC Economist
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August 29, 2011, 01:03:03 AM
 #5

Here is why you need to use the log chart:

(d/dx) log x = dx / x

Now, what is dx / x.  Well that is the change in x over x.  If we move from continuous time (derivatives) to a discrete time interpretation, then it's analogous to  (x2 - x1) / x1 (ie. percentage change).  Log charts show percentage change.

Why percentage change?

Well, would you rather have your investment go from 5 to 10 or from 10 to 20?  Obviously they are both the same, you double your money.  A log chart would show a change from 5 to 10 to 20 as a straight line which is what you'd want.  A linear chart would make it look as if they price had grown exponentially.

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michaelmclees
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August 29, 2011, 01:08:36 AM
 #6

Depends on when you made your investment.  If you got in at 5 and your asset is sitting at 20, you haven't merely doubled your investment, you've quadrupled it, with strikes people as more exponential.
RandyMarsh
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August 29, 2011, 10:40:58 AM
 #7

Here is why you need to use the log chart:

(d/dx) log x = dx / x

Now, what is dx / x.  Well that is the change in x over x.  If we move from continuous time (derivatives) to a discrete time interpretation, then it's analogous to  (x2 - x1) / x1 (ie. percentage change).  Log charts show percentage change.

Why percentage change?

Well, would you rather have your investment go from 5 to 10 or from 10 to 20?  Obviously they are both the same, you double your money.  A log chart would show a change from 5 to 10 to 20 as a straight line which is what you'd want.  A linear chart would make it look as if they price had grown exponentially.

+1

Its amazing how many people take it on face value that log charts are "better" without understanding why let alone what a log scale is. Thanks BTC Economist

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arsenische
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August 29, 2011, 12:20:28 PM
 #8

Normal Vs Log

If you look at the Log graph then it does not really resemble the classic "bubble" that everyone keeps harping on about... what gives  Undecided

Wow.. I like the Log one (with weighted prices).. I know it is too optimistic and arbitrary.. but it looks like price correction takes about twice as match time as the it took to grow from the previous maximum.. If this it is true, then it is going to be 30$/btc in september and over 50$/btc by November Smiley


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August 29, 2011, 01:04:28 PM
 #9

Here is why you need to use the log chart:

(d/dx) log x = dx / x

Now, what is dx / x.  Well that is the change in x over x.  If we move from continuous time (derivatives) to a discrete time interpretation, then it's analogous to  (x2 - x1) / x1 (ie. percentage change).  Log charts show percentage change.

Why percentage change?

Well, would you rather have your investment go from 5 to 10 or from 10 to 20?  Obviously they are both the same, you double your money.  A log chart would show a change from 5 to 10 to 20 as a straight line which is what you'd want.  A linear chart would make it look as if they price had grown exponentially.

Thank you.
kiwiasian
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August 30, 2011, 01:55:18 PM
 #10

Normal Vs Log

If you look at the Log graph then it does not really resemble the classic "bubble" that everyone keeps harping on about... what gives  Undecided

Wow.. I like the Log one (with weighted prices).. I know it is too optimistic and arbitrary.. but it looks like price correction takes about twice as match time as the it took to grow from the previous maximum.. If this it is true, then it is going to be 30$/btc in september and over 50$/btc by November Smiley



It's almost September, and we're at sub $10

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arsenische
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August 30, 2011, 02:02:33 PM
 #11

we are in the middle of the third square.. if to look at the previous period, can see that lows may happen after that before it gows up Smiley

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August 30, 2011, 06:47:12 PM
 #12

Normal Vs Log

If you look at the Log graph then it does not really resemble the classic "bubble" that everyone keeps harping on about... what gives  Undecided

Wow.. I like the Log one (with weighted prices).. I know it is too optimistic and arbitrary.. but it looks like price correction takes about twice as match time as the it took to grow from the previous maximum.. If this it is true, then it is going to be 30$/btc in september and over 50$/btc by November Smiley



It's almost September, and we're at sub $10
This does not seem realistic to me. A jump of this magnitude seems a bit too optimistic.
gw4tt
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August 30, 2011, 08:07:56 PM
 #13

This does not seem realistic to me. A jump of this magnitude seems a bit too optimistic.

It's done it before, just something to keep in mind as a possibility really.
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