I buy a lot of bitcoins on blockchain and mtgox , when the price was $90, i got some coins than suddenly the price went up to $900, ok the market explains these oscillations, but what would happen if FBI decide shut down the 4 biggert trade sites? the price will drop? i trade in small sites like bitcoins4currency.com, but the big sites keep the most of the transaction, i dont keep 2 many bitcoins in my wallet, i exchange in other currencies to avoid a big down oscillation, well, which are your opnion about bitcoins price if this happen?
1. None of the top 4 are in US jurisdiction.
2. To answer the spirit of your question, open bitcoinwisdom to Gox, the 1w chart. (Longest dataset.) make sure it is on logarithmic. For extra points, change the oscillator to KDI, and its values to "13, 3, 11". You need to see the whole chart, so this needs to be done on a laptop or something, a mobile may not cut if depending on the way it reports it's resolution. If you can see when BTC was like, 5 cents or whatever, you're good.
It would look like the April crash at worst, which was perpetuated by the Dwolla seizures from Gox and before we knew that was about Liberty Reserve, back when Gox still had 80% of the volume. By the way, notice how much more severe that was that this last one, and how much closer together the spikes are coming. Eventually, the spikes and recessions will tame and correct and level off. We are not there yet, for at probably 3 years, and I give 99% probability it will definitely not display a tail before perhaps this time 2015, but I honestly think to the extent it is possible to predict, the taper is most likely to occur around the next block reward halving. There is no sign of the sigmoid tail beginning yet.
