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全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷
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Topic: 全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷 (Read 1013 times)
PBC.cn
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全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷
January 05, 2014, 02:11:03 AM
#1
与BTC、LTC为代表的POW(工作证明)模式不同,还存在一种POS(股权证明)模式
POS类型的币,以PPC为代表,包括NVC、YAC、元宝币、招财币、CMC等等
这一类型的币曾经活得很滋润,主要得力于一种投机性的设计:POS块逐渐增多,POW块逐渐减少。POS块的产出是1-5%的年利息,与POW块的产出相比少到几乎可以勿略不计,其实质是造成了产量的快速下降,从而其价格相对坚挺。
但本人长期追踪研究发现,这个投机性优势最近已经破灭,反过来变成了劣势
以本人长期追踪研究的数据来说话,在以前,元宝币的POS块很常见,YAC的POS块约占三分之一,PPC的POS块居然占到80%以上(这是PPC价格之前为何如此坚挺的原因)
约在一个月以前,YAC与YBC的POS块就已经很少见了,翻几十个区块也找不到一个。而最近,这种恶化的趋势已经波及到PPC,统计表明POS块已经下降到三分之二以下,反过来说它的POW块差不多翻倍,实际产量也翻了一倍。
原因分析:
POS的设计要求,币存在钱包里不动超过30天,才可以参与铸造POS块,获得POS利息。同时,这个操作需要一定的技术水平,要有防病毒能力。在早期,官方掌握了大量的币,且忠实用户较多,技术流较多,维持POS的运转没有问题。但如今,山寨价格普涨,新用户大增,用户群体发生了结构性的变化,整体投机性大增,技术水平下降。
在此情况下,绝大部份的人既不在乎也不懂获取那微不足道的利息,很少有人在本地钱包存币超过30天,估计官方也大幅减仓甚至有的清仓了,导致POS块减少,POW块增多,从而实际产量不降反增。这将会形成一种恶性循环,最终导致POS币的消亡。
感想:
POS币,成也投机(设计),败也投机(用户)
如IFC之类,是另一种形式的产量快速减少,但算力也会大降,很快就会无人挖矿而死
产量快速减少的投机取巧,怎么爬起来,还得怎么跌回去。
ADTQoo
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Re: 全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷
January 05, 2014, 02:37:10 AM
#2
如果pos的周期缩短这种情况会不会有好转呢?
.Ignatius
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Re: 全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷
January 05, 2014, 04:22:28 AM
#3
limit2718
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Re: 全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷
January 05, 2014, 05:26:02 AM
#4
继续关注
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*Thread*
bitbbs
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Re: 全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷
January 05, 2014, 09:32:36 AM
#5
学习了
ybcoin
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Re: 全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷
January 05, 2014, 11:07:10 AM
#6
太好笑了, 就看到这点问题,就震撼全球首发了? 怎么产量下降就引起消亡了?
换手率高,说明成交活跃,说明玩的人越来越多!!!什么狗屁逻辑,POS块少了和消亡有毛关系?
English ABCoin Announcement Thread
harveyweizhao
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Re: 全球震撼首发:POS币的致命缺陷
January 06, 2014, 04:47:04 PM
#7
楼主指责pos币 如果大家都把币转移了 就没有拥有超过30天币年龄的钱包 从而网络没有pos数据块产生。
这个观点是对的 这点必须要肯定。
但这个忧虑我觉得是多余的,这就好像担心:pow币 由于参量持续减半 导致最后没有矿工参与挖矿 网络算力大减 导致网络奔溃。
pos币网络节点成千上万 要所有的节点 同时都没有30天币年龄 不妨算算这个概率是多少 基本这是个可以忽略不计的小概率事件。
最新资讯 请follow微博:Harvey老狼
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