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Author Topic: Interesting milestone  (Read 1072 times)
epii
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August 29, 2011, 12:15:50 AM
 #1

I do believe this will be the first time the difficulty has ever dropped two times in a row.

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techwtf
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August 29, 2011, 02:06:26 PM
 #2

3 times or even more is possible ...
ElectricMucus
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August 29, 2011, 02:26:38 PM
 #3

Well mining has become unprofitable with current prices in many areas meaning that the cost of electricity is higher than buying old coins directly. This trend will continue until the next rally.
So people mining bitcoins just for profit will slowly quit one after the other.

If you look at the trend the decline of hashing power could take as long as the initial decline @difficulty 1. Only now it makes a tremendous difference. This makes sense if you consider that the initial hype period is over and the price downwards trend is unbroken.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
AngelusWebDesign
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August 29, 2011, 05:00:04 PM
 #4

I wouldn't get excited about this #2 difficulty -- it looks to be basically "flat".

If the DJIA (stock market) gained 5 days in a row -- up 10 the first day, up 5 the 2nd, up 7 the third, up 12 the fourth, and up 9 the fifth -- I wouldn't exactly be selling all my stock into the "rally". (For those who aren't familiar with the DOW -- a rise in the single or low double-digits is practically flat)

Now if it gained several hundred points for a few days, everyone would expect a correction and the first person to sell would make money (he could re-buy at a lower price, even if he wanted to hold)

So technically yes, we have "2 difficulty drops in a row", but come on! I almost wish this one was an increase of 20,000 rather than a decrease of 40,000. Because it really doesn't matter as far as mining income is concerned -- it's just psychological.
bcpokey
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August 29, 2011, 06:14:47 PM
 #5

Come on man, I posted this link a buncha times already.



I use this graph as my favorite eyeball on the situation. It looks like a pretty serious drop actually, though it's currently averaging against a large increase, so it still remains to be seen how consistent it will be, but this is definitely the first time we've seen such a sustained hit to hash.
AngelusWebDesign
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August 29, 2011, 08:16:57 PM
 #6

Yes, there's the large spike earlier to be averaged against.

At any rate, here's what I'm going by:


Difficulty   1806098
Estimated   1766344 in 58 blks
 
Network total   11.546 Thash/s
Blocks/hour    5.36 / 672 s

lemonginger
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August 30, 2011, 05:47:45 AM
 #7

just wait til it gets  on into fall/winter people in the northern hemisphere will be willing to mine at lower prices when the heat generated is a positive not a negative and we should see mining speeds go back up again.

7.50 is my "not worth the hassle" price when the miners get shut off.
mike678
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August 30, 2011, 03:27:54 PM
 #8

just wait til it gets  on into fall/winter people in the northern hemisphere will be willing to mine at lower prices when the heat generated is a positive not a negative and we should see mining speeds go back up again.

7.50 is my "not worth the hassle" price when the miners get shut off.

I'm from the northeast and I agree with you. Once it gets cold enough that my window can be my ac if needed. I will consider adding another machine.
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