Bitcoin Price Analysis!

[MatTheCat]

- Bitcoin remains very manipulated. MtGox for example has been used to manipulate the market.
- Most bitcoins are, in fact, in the hands of a very few people.

My position:
- It's time to wait until the end of the week!
- But my position remains bear!

This is something that I have become very aware off from the past week, which I have spent watching the market closer than ever before.

Far too many massive single moves have been responsible for determination of market trends. Today, we have seen a 3 million dollar worth of Bitcoin purchases spring up out of the blue within a 5 minute time frame and take down a massive 1500BTC strong Ask wall at 820. Volume since then has been derisory and market is now down at 812. Was it merely some idiot with too much money that made this purchase or is there something much more convoluted and/or sinister at hand.

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[jeomses]

Hi MatTheCat,

Most bitcoins are, in fact, in the hands of a very few people. Are you surprised? I’m not.

We also learn that, of the approximately 9 million bitcoins which currently exist, less than 2 million actually circulate – that is, change hands with any appreciable frequency:
“It is remarkable that 97% of all owners had fewer than 10 transactions each, while 75 owners use the network very often and are affiliated with at least 5,000 transactions.”

And it would appear that most of the non-circulating coins are in the hands of a very small number of people – who, one may reasonably suspect, were involved from with building and propagandising Bitcoin from its very beginning. So, who are the lords of Bitcoin?

[jeomses]

Week 5 events.
- The appearance of more companies to accept BTC did not affect the market!
- A week full of many uncertainties! Bitcoin needs more trust!
- The regulation and taxes will still give much to talk about!

Some thoughts:
- During the first quarter of the year i believe that Bitcoin quickly falls to the 400 than rises above 1000!
- "What really moves this market is the trust and the fear!"
- “We are living in historical times!”

My position:
-Bear

Chart:
http://s28.postimg.org/fo3wrw9xp/s5_bitcoin.jpg

[jeomses]

Week 6 breaking events:
- Bitcoin is still not well accepted by some countries and/or authorities.
- Apple Removes Blockchain Bitcoin Wallet Apps from its App Stores
- Mt. Gox Halts ALL Bitcoin Withdrawals

Some thoughts:
- We continue to see a large market manipulation!
- If we do not see any good news of great importance for the use of BTC i believe that in the next days and after a small correction we will see a big drop in the value of BTC.
- In the next days BTC should go up to 750/800 approximately and then drops to 500/400

My position:
- Bear


Chart:
http://s12.postimg.org/bfc5l9jzx/s6_bitcoin.jpg

[jeomses]

Week 7 breaking events:
- Bitcoin Exchanges Under Massive and Concerted Attack
- Gox was right after all! There is a problem with bitcoin!
- BitStamp off all withdrawals

Some thoughts:
- There is a great possibility that BTC go to $100 instead of $400, as I said before! (In bitstamp)
- The manipulation of the market remains very strong! The coming weeks will be decisive!
- Bitcoin regulation will ever happen?

My position:
- Bear

Chart:
http://s27.postimg.org/q7gtd47fn/image.jpg

[MatTheCat]

Not getting very much response here Jeomses. Maybe people don't like the message although your forecasts have provided for a good rough estimate of what has actually transpired in Bitcoin in the past weeks.

When/if the market turns and you are actually truthfully able to tell people the value of their Bitcoins will rise, then you might start getting your own little fan club around here.

I sense a marked correction to much lower lows also, despite the Gox 'good news', and despite any little boost that may come if Gox really do start allowing withdrawals of BTC again on Friday. The 'good news' events seem more like pangs of respite to me in a market that has lost all it's previous hunger and enthuse. Take away the artificial boosts, and the interest just isn't there for Bitcoin at the moment.

[jeomses]

Not getting very much response here Jeomses. Maybe people don't like the message..

"People like to vote on who tells them what they like to hear, even if it is not true"

[jeomses]

Week 8 breaking events:
- There is talk about insolvency in MtGox, comparing the company to now-bankrupt online gambling operators.
- ATMs continue to be developed and are coming in the big cities.
- The regulation of BTC is something increasingly talked about and desired. (while watching the greatest manipulation ever in BTC.)
- How some banks see BTC:
JP Morgan: “As a medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value, it is vastly inferior to fiat currencies.”
Wells Fargo: “Wells Fargo appears to be interested in being an innovator in cryptocurrencies, but, as the title of its summit suggests, it has concerns about future regulation in the United States.” “The venture capital firm has invested in bitcoin over the last year, providing funding for Coinbase in several different rounds…”
Silicon Valley Bank: “Right now the bank is actively involved with bitcoin business, but not proving storage services. Instead, the bank’s role appears to be as an ACH wire transfer provider.”


Some thoughts:
- As I said in week 6, there is a possibility of bitcoin climb up to the $ 750/800 and then fall!
- In short, there should be a small rise and then a fall. And this fall should be strong.
- I also believe that this will be the final fall.


My position:
- Bear


Chart:
http://s22.postimg.org/3ky3968vl/s8_bitcoin.jpg

[dedcoin]

Would you care expanding on the $100 prevision? Looks to me like a very hard bottom, even gox is fighting in this area.
Right now, I am very surprise by the positive reaction to the mtgox testings. I really don't understand what's going on. Why in the world should the price rise in other exchange when the threat of $100 cheap bitcoins inflow is looming. I don't want to pay for these!!

My position:
100%fiat

[MrHindsight]

Your way of replying and use of exclamation marks is somehow intriguing. I agree with you that upcoming 1/2 weeks could become highly volatile (!).

[jeomses]

Week 9

I have not had time to do the analysis of week 9.
But everything continues according to the analysis of the week 8. After this small rise, the fall will be to very low values​​. I still can not tell if it will last four weeks or more. In next weekend I'll post new analysis.

My position:
- Bear

[MrHindsight]

Week 9

I have not had time to do the analysis of week 9.
But everything continues according to the analysis of the week 8. After this small rise, the fall will be to very low values​​. I still can not tell if it will last four weeks or more. In next weekend I'll post new analysis.

My position:
- Bear

Your forecasts remain to be remarkably accurate, including today's rise to $710,-.  But such low values - really? You're expecting a catastrophe?

It's tough to remain bearish in times like these but I'll wait and see how this week will play out. But I'm playing along with you that today's rise was fake, although majestically orchestrated.

[jeomses]

Week 10 breaking events:
- Satoshi Nakamoto found. (He is 64-year-old Satoshi Nakamoto, a Californian with a love of math, encryption and model trains, McGrath Goodman claims.)
- Satoshi Nakamoto Denies Being Creator of Bitcoin
- Russia’s Anti-Bitcoin Stance May Be Softening, Reports Say
- Toronto-based bitcoin exchange Vault of Satoshi, announced that it will cease its US operations effective immediately. “We feel the regulatory environment in the US is becoming increasingly hostile toward Bitcoin, and more specifically toward exchanges trading in digital currencies.”
- Bitcoin “does not fall under the category of a currency” as defined by Japanese law
- Poloniex Loses 12.3% of its Bitcoins in Latest Bitcoin Exchange Hack


Some thoughts:
- For many, Bitcoin is associated with improper activities. (Black Market and the huge rip in MtGox) How can it be considered a good medium of exchange, secure, anonymous, etc after so many scandals?
- The big market manipulation is almost done.
- Fear and doubt are getting bigger!
- Something must be done to restore confidence and stop the manipulation. (It will be done!)
- Because many have lost Bitcoins, will be required that something be done to discover the track and the guy who has stolen bitcoins. (the anonymity of Bitcoin will eventually fall.)

- Before falling below 550, will have a false increase.
- The Bitcoin now is in its short climb up to 750/800. Then begin their fall!
- The fall may take more days than I was expecting.
 

My position:
- Bear


Chart:
http://s24.postimg.org/4hebtmbgl/s10_bitcoin.jpg

[gary492]

Hey keep it up dude your really good at this and I enjoy reading this each week 

[af_newbie]

- The Bitcoin now is in its short climb up to 750/800. Then begin their fall!

I'm not sure about that.  If we stay in 775-800 range for more than few days, you and millions of other traders will be looking at the reverse head and shoulders pattern.
Who is going to sell this downtrend breakout?

I think chances are we'll have another failed attempt at 700 or go down from 670. If we go down at all.
It all depends on the selling pressure around 700.  I think shorts/sellers are getting tired of getting burned, so next attempt might be successful and we break 700,
go to 750, retest 700 and back up.  The longer we stay above 600, the less selling pressure you'll see when the market moves up.

So forget about falling from 750s+, if we continue downtrend, we'll do it from high 600s, IMHO.

[jeomses]

Week 11 breaking events:

- Cryptocurrencies are ‘Inevitable’, Says Google’s Jared Cohen.
- French Finance Minister Calls for EU Action on Bitcoin Regulation “This is an imperative topic to be treated not only at national level but also at European level.”
- Bitcoin ATM Company Refused Account by Bank of Ireland.
- Bank of England: Digital Currencies are Similar to Commodities. “The current levels of economic activity and payments involving bitcoin are too light to have a material impact on [the bank's] monetary or financial stability objectives in the short term.”
- Singapore to Regulate Bitcoin Exchanges and ATMs. The authority said: “Whether or not businesses accept bitcoins in exchange for their goods and services is a commercial decision in which MAS does not intervene.”
- Warren Buffett spoke out about bitcoin for the second time in as many weeks, calling the digital currency “a mirage” and advising investors to “stay away from it” (in an interview with CNBC)
- Icelandic Parliament Committee Holds Closed Session to Discuss Auroracoin.


Some thoughts:
- For the google Cryptocurrencies are inevitable, why have not developed any? Surely it would be much used, what are they waiting for?
- Bitcoin continues to be increasingly accepted in small businesses over the world.
- At the same time will emerging new national currencies which will be distributed to the population of each country.
-
- When a "cycle of manipulation" ends, another begins!
- For now BTC continues a false "rise" to values close to 750/800.
- Soon will come the fall!
- I'm studying how it will fall, but should no longer be as I expected.
- At this time I believe that Bitcoin (BTC) can never be used as currency. Can not be compared or used as is done with the USD or EUR! Other digital currencies can. Will arise one or more that will be used, but never BTC.

My position:
- Bearish

Chart:
http://s17.postimg.org/9jyqnsldr/s11_bitcoin.jpg