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Author Topic: Difficulty Decrease!  (Read 2172 times)
tysat
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August 30, 2011, 05:17:44 AM
 #1

From 1806098.30 -> 1777774.48 making it the second decrease in a row!  Sure is nice to know I can still mine at a decent rate.
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deepceleron
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August 30, 2011, 05:26:45 AM
 #2

The above was just a guess from somewhere; The actual difficulty is in: 1,777,774.482001

http://blockexplorer.com/b/143136

I'll just leave this here:

block   date         difficulty   Average hashes for solve
2016   2009-01-27 13:38:51   1.00   4294967296
4032   2009-02-12 19:16:30   1.00   4294967296
6048   2009-03-02 04:01:53   1.00   4294967296
8064   2009-03-20 00:26:26   1.00   4294967296
10080   2009-04-06 22:04:23   1.00   4294967296
12096   2009-04-24 18:51:38   1.00   4294967296
14112   2009-05-12 03:20:25   1.00   4294967296
16128   2009-05-31 02:31:25   1.00   4294967296
18144   2009-06-26 21:32:53   1.00   4294967296
20160   2009-07-25 00:30:16   1.00   4294967296
22176   2009-09-04 13:01:38   1.00   4294967296
24192   2009-10-02 03:27:08   1.00   4294967296
26208   2009-10-31 15:28:20   1.00   4294967296
28224   2009-11-27 21:51:07   1.00   4294967296
30240   2009-12-18 09:56:01   1.00   4294967296
32256   2009-12-30 06:11:04   1.18   5068061409
34272   2010-01-11 22:48:37   1.30   5583457485
36288   2010-01-25 13:07:59   1.34   5755256177
38304   2010-02-04 21:43:14   1.81   7773890806
40320   2010-02-14 23:52:59   2.52   10823317586
42336   2010-02-24 08:41:04   3.78   16234976379
44352   2010-03-08 01:14:33   4.53   19456201851
46368   2010-03-21 22:54:24   4.56   19585050870
48384   2010-04-01 11:07:22   6.08   26113401160
50400   2010-04-12 08:39:46   7.81   33543694582
52416   2010-04-21 21:52:52   11.46   49220325212
54432   2010-05-04 09:46:16   12.84   55147380081
56448   2010-05-19 14:13:55   11.84   50852412785
58464   2010-05-29 13:57:28   16.61   71339406787
60480   2010-06-11 23:26:26   17.38   74646531604
62496   2010-06-24 12:27:26   19.40   83322365542
64512   2010-07-06 01:57:44   23.50   100931731456
66528   2010-07-13 08:03:57   45.38   194905615892
68544   2010-07-16 16:29:39   181.54   779708362916
70560   2010-07-27 02:42:38   244.21   1048873963356
72576   2010-08-05 19:46:35   352.16   1512515682959
74592   2010-08-15 11:11:11   511.77   2198035413074
76608   2010-08-26 23:13:23   623.38   2677396712980
78624   2010-09-08 05:04:49   712.88   3061796285972
80640   2010-09-19 02:04:07   917.83   3942049833288
82656   2010-09-28 19:58:28   1318.67   5663644524216
84672   2010-10-12 05:35:05   1378.02   5918550833234
86688   2010-10-21 05:13:15   2149.02   9229970618450
88704   2010-10-30 22:58:47   3091.73   13278879238062
90720   2010-11-09 12:29:28   4536.35   19483474893210
92736   2010-11-18 18:44:34   6866.89   29493067975230
94752   2010-11-30 16:37:55   8078.19   34695561860874
96768   2010-12-09 22:20:02   12251.99   52621896360919
98784   2010-12-21 18:34:03   14484.16   62208993510031
100800   2011-01-03 05:10:11   16307.42   70039835582136
102816   2011-01-15 14:26:07   18437.64   79189060815422
104832   2011-01-27 08:16:11   22012.38   94542452207125
106848   2011-02-08 04:53:20   25997.87   111660001415660
108864   2011-02-18 05:15:52   36459.88   156593992216084
110880   2011-02-27 09:59:20   55589.51   238755127450665
112896   2011-03-09 15:25:55   76192.61   327244768146883
114912   2011-03-25 02:39:45   68977.78   296257309250683
116928   2011-04-05 20:09:57   82345.64   353671830768189
118944   2011-04-18 07:49:36   92347.59   396629878914417
120960   2011-04-30 02:53:00   109670.13   471029621698068
122976   2011-05-09 21:17:24   157416.40   676098289854054
124992   2011-05-18 22:04:47   244112.48   1048455118145450
127008   2011-05-26 18:41:56   434877.04   1867782664581280
129024   2011-06-06 12:25:05   567269.53   2436404079367290
131040   2011-06-15 13:49:34   876954.49   3766490854630360
133056   2011-06-24 11:45:23   1379192.28   5923585737495680
135072   2011-07-06 20:35:46   1563027.99   6713154099782620
137088   2011-07-19 19:23:09   1690895.80   7262342161943760
139104   2011-08-01 08:11:19   1888786.70   8112277105619760
141120   2011-08-15 23:44:54   1805700.83   7755426011210060
143136   2011-08-30 05:15:03   1777774.48   7635483251263410


tysat
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August 30, 2011, 05:38:21 AM
 #3

The above was just a guess from somewhere; The actual difficulty is in: 1,777,774.482001

http://blockexplorer.com/b/143136

Good call, it had showed the new block number so I assumed it was the correct difficulty.  I edited my first post to be correct.
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August 30, 2011, 05:43:42 AM
 #4

The difficulty level *has* decreased in the past, ya know.  This time, it's most likely due to the Irene storm.  It will probably go back up in the next 2 weeks, don't you worry.

Kinda makes me wonder what would have happened if Bitcoin started out with the GPU miners that Namecoin/ixcoin/iocoin/WHATEVER already had to begin with.  Methinks it wouldn't have worked out nearly as smoothly.
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August 30, 2011, 06:07:01 AM
 #5

The difficulty level *has* decreased in the past, ya know.  This time, it's most likely due to the Irene storm.  It will probably go back up in the next 2 weeks, don't you worry.

Kinda makes me wonder what would have happened if Bitcoin started out with the GPU miners that Namecoin/ixcoin/iocoin/WHATEVER already had to begin with.  Methinks it wouldn't have worked out nearly as smoothly.

I know it's decreased before, but not many times and this is the first time it's decreased twice in a row.
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August 30, 2011, 06:16:02 AM
 #6

Okay, so it's decreased for 4 weeks instead of 2.  I still wouldn't worry too much about it, to be honest.

In other terms (via your avatar), it took how many years before the Vince Lombardi Trophy came back to Green Bay?  You can't let the temporary downturns distort your ultimate goal of success.

(...go Pack go...) >_>
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August 30, 2011, 07:06:34 AM
 #7

Okay, so it's decreased for 4 weeks instead of 2.  I still wouldn't worry too much about it, to be honest.

...

I'm not worried, I'm fucking happy!

If you are a miner, you have 2 risk factors.  The price and the difficulty.  If the diff is going to level out at around where it is now, I'm fine with the price doing the same. (tho 10 or11 would be better)   Grin

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tysat
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August 30, 2011, 07:11:57 AM
 #8

Okay, so it's decreased for 4 weeks instead of 2.  I still wouldn't worry too much about it, to be honest.

In other terms (via your avatar), it took how many years before the Vince Lombardi Trophy came back to Green Bay?  You can't let the temporary downturns distort your ultimate goal of success.

(...go Pack go...) >_>

I never said I was worried!  Just trying to spark some discussion is all.
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August 30, 2011, 07:39:16 AM
 #9

Its Worry-free, just a slight decrease  Smiley

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August 30, 2011, 01:50:20 PM
 #10

Growth has been slowing pries have been dropping and we've been close to a decrease for a while now. 
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August 30, 2011, 02:00:06 PM
 #11

The drop is marginal and with current outlook this might be it.
We are still at 94.12% of the ath.

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August 30, 2011, 02:27:59 PM
 #12

Summer (GPUs off due to overheating) + Irene (some days at 10Thash/s or less) + low price...
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August 30, 2011, 06:54:56 PM
 #13

Also, a lot of people are mining other blockchains. I haven't mined bitcoin for awhile now, been mining i0coins, ixcoins, solidcoins.

much more profitable compared to bitcoin.
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August 30, 2011, 08:39:15 PM
 #14

However the stats says that the difficulty will increase by 12% in 11 days.  Sad

Let's enjoy these few days to mine hard  Wink
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August 30, 2011, 09:02:52 PM
 #15

However the stats says that the difficulty will increase by 12% in 11 days.  Sad

Let's enjoy these few days to mine hard  Wink
Every time this needs to be explained...

The estimate at the beginning of a new difficulty is not accurate. It takes several days for even a relatively close estimate to come out.
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August 30, 2011, 09:45:07 PM
 #16

The major cause of this week's drop was the introduction all the forkcoins in the last two weeks.  Between I0Coin and Solidcoin, we were missing 500 GH - 1 TH/s on the network for a large portion of the last two weeks.  Even with that large batch of power missing, the decrease was minor.

The BTC price also fell a bit over the last two weeks, so we'll see if we get a fairly large increase after this difficulty finishes (most the fork coins are dying off, and no new ones are in sight).  The miners with higher power costs are starting to turn off GPUs as the price dips lower, so it's going to be interesting to watch how the BTC network behaves.

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August 31, 2011, 02:55:33 AM
 #17

However the stats says that the difficulty will increase by 12% in 11 days.  Sad

Let's enjoy these few days to mine hard  Wink
Every time this needs to be explained...

The estimate at the beginning of a new difficulty is not accurate. It takes several days for even a relatively close estimate to come out.

Is true, in the last difficulty update indicated further increase, but decreased. Is very relative.
Now the prediction is +5.5%  Undecided
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August 31, 2011, 04:38:32 AM
 #18

Bitcoin has its ups and downs also.

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August 31, 2011, 05:14:08 AM
 #19

I'm in agreement. I expect difficulty averages would level around here since mining profitability has been seriously thwarted for anyone investing in new equipment, while 7-day moving averages have lowered, and summer electric rates are still in effect (at least for part of the U.S. anyway). ROIs have converted from months to years with the edge too close, especially with exchange rates so volatile and testing new lows. ROIs can flip from positive to negative within a few hours and that should scare a number of higher cost miners out.
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August 31, 2011, 05:34:59 AM
 #20

ROIs have converted from months to years with the edge too close, especially with exchange rates so volatile and testing new lows.
This isn't true roi is still in the months category. I'll use my 5850 machine for example. Its a rig with 5 5850's and cost me 1,375 to build. It can generate 1,900 megahash and requires 1kw.

That generates me 1.0750 btc a day which is 290 a month. At 8.5 cents per kwh (cost for me) it costs 61 per month. Which gives me a profit of 229.

Thats 6 months and lets be honest in 6 months the price could easily go up. If you save your coins and wait and at any point it reaches 20 dollars a coin you will have roi in 2.3 months. Keep in mind it only has to hit this once for you to drastically cut your roi.

So like I said roi's don't take years to recover.
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