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Author Topic: 10$ in the future?  (Read 1309 times)
mute20
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August 30, 2011, 07:52:46 PM
 #1

So do you guys expect the price to be back to where they were a few weeks ago? Or is 8.5-9 the new norm for the next few months. Just curious what price to expect. Huh
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gw4tt
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August 30, 2011, 07:55:36 PM
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right now it still looks like it's going to continue to slide down..

Until new investors pick it up, the inflation rate is going to keep the prices slowly sliding.
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August 30, 2011, 08:21:29 PM
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There's just a lot of downward pressure on bitcoin. Mainly as large investors withdraw capital from the market and from miners living hand to mouth.

What's also interesting to calculate in is that in addition to miners drawing capital in the market, dramatic swings are less likely as miners introduce a higher volume of BTC per day into the market (~7200 BTC per day). Meaning a buyer would have to buy 200,000 BTC to cause the same price swing that was caused 30 days prior (based on available volume increase).

So every day that passes, the price swings become more gradual and we can come to expect either gradual increases or decreases as time moves forward. The point we're going to get at is that a year from now, there's going to be such a high volume of BTC in the market that it would be difficult for a manipulator to swing the price +/- $0.10USD with a large order.
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August 30, 2011, 09:51:08 PM
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I'm fairly confident that the price will go up significantly later this year. When the trend changes is unknown but basically anyone who knows what you can already do with Bitcoin and the potential that's still there to be tapped, it can't go anywhere but up.

Basic calculations show that even a sustained $30+ price doesn't mean the market has to be unrealistically massive, not at all. It has to be way bigger than it is now, more activity and more adoption but it's not unrealistic if we talk in the timeframe of months.

The market in a global scale is insanely small and we're around $10 right now. It's not far fetched to see way bigger prices in the future. It all depends on what kind of services can be created that make Bitcoin really useful and how those services are marketed, we need to market that stuff really well and create brands around it.

Just look at all the stuff that's going on, the really useful mobile wallets such as the Android wallet which is already fairly revolutionary, the upcoming Bitcoin ATM's, services such as Bit-pay etc, the list goes on. And the number of merchants accepting Bitcoin keep growing and growing.

At the same time we have some challenges such as security which is going to be WAY better in the long run and this will build confidence in the whole system. The wallet will be more secure by default, the main services like E-wallets and exchanges will be way more robust etc.

There are so many good things growing in the Bitcoin world right now that the downward trend of the last few months will soon be a thing of the past. As a trader I'm still seeing the downward trend but looking at Bitcoin fundamentally I'm seeing that the trend simply has no other choice but to change soon, simply because Bitcoin is too awesome to keep going down much longer.

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August 30, 2011, 11:51:45 PM
 #5

Also... 7200 BTC per day has always been the amount of volume which miners can introduce to the market, that has not changed. But it has accounted for an ever decreasing percentage of liquidity available to trading volume. To assert that this is somehow a higher volume is a  specious argument at best.
However true that 7200 BTC/day are and have always  been added to the stream, if only 5% stay in the market, in perpetual limbo, trading back and forth, every day there are 360 "extra" coins staying in the market! Over time that increase in total volume would dilute a large order easier than say...mid June! Would it not?

Waiver: I am no professional economist! Just trying to understand!  Grin

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August 31, 2011, 08:28:49 AM
 #6

Quote
You are, of course, speaking of Bitcoin volume. But until volume measured in native currencies becomes significant, (over a billion $) we can expect Bitcoin to remain an easily manipulable backwater... We are nowhere near that point. I expect it to be a long road, but unlike Bitcoin's detractors I do not expect there to be a lot of downside in the long term, I think we are already near the bottom. Perhaps the market manipulators will get bored and move on to more fruitful exploits, and give Bitcoin some room to breathe. That includes well meaning bots that seek to 'stabilize' Bitcoin, which is an entirely misguided objective, their real effect has only been to dampen natural market growth.

+1

Nice to finally here someone talking sense  Grin

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August 31, 2011, 08:53:12 AM
 #7

There are indicators that should be taken seriously.

MtGox is the market that has the highest liquidity; for that reason, it is the best place for short term traders and speculators.
In contrast, other markets have a larger spread, therefore transactions that take place there are much more likely to reflect demand related to the real economy.

With that in mind, it is interesting to observe that the volume of bitcoins exchanged on some of these
markets has been increasing consistently over the last few months:
- btcchina has had the most spectacular growth: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#vzm1g10zm2g25
- virtexCAD has had a nice growth too: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/virtexCAD#vzm1g10zm2g25
- bitcoins are now the 3rd currency traded at virwox, in terms of volume: https://www.virwox.com/  (4Mio SLL/day, slightly behind the USD)


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