Confidence then, confidence now!

Thought this might need its own thread. Discuss!! Wink

Confidence then, confidence now

In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown. Danger lurked around every corner and chance events changed the price drastically. Silk Road, hacks, forks, dodgy exchanges (still are a few but many are rushing to get their acts together )... It is very important that TA analysts come to terms with the fact that there was a lot of essentially chance price movement in the past, based on intermittent media reports and catastrophes that no-one can predict!

But looking at history is in fact very important, but for a different reason. Look at the whole picture, the bubbles coming closer together, the price constantly rising, and what do you get? The bubbles are moving closer together becuase confidence has been growing. This is leading to the S-curve or whatever you want to call it - when confidence becomes a loop alongside new users, new wallets, new adoption, etc.

Thus it is normal and logical to presume that the next "bubble" has already started. But although this will look like a gigantic bubble in a year from now, it will be so large it will necessarily take a lot of time to grow, even at +$20 or +30 per day. There has never been a level of general confidence in BTC like today - never. Hell, the US government was talking about banning it a year or two ago. BANNING!!! And BTC pulled through. But what is the US government saying now eh? And Wall Street? And e-commerce? etc. etc. etc.

Confidence is taking a quantum leap forward and this is why so many analysts will fail here. They cannot see past their calculations to feel the real market psychology right now, which is just as much based on maths as an argument with my wife is based on maths!!! Cheesy

What if a market driven by mostly confidence on low volume backfires when something happens to make people less confident, when a business decides they need to dump a truckload of coins to pay their invoices regardless of confidence, or when people are stunned to see a price drop that goes against their beliefs and it turns into a snowball of panic selling.

Quote from: Holliday on January 07, 2014, 07:58:12 AM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 07, 2014, 07:55:02 AM

In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown.

So you say. Don't worry, many here say the same thing.

Edit: Damn, I've let my hubris out... EM will have a fit.

Thanks for the heads up! I should let those who were commenting here years ago comment on the uncertainty of the past, definately!

Please do!

Quote from: TERA on January 07, 2014, 08:00:47 AM

An essentially chance event won't change things as much as before (unless of course Doomsday scenario). Overall confidence is progressing very, very well.

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 07, 2014, 07:55:02 AM

Thought this might need its own thread. Discuss!! Wink

Confidence then, confidence now

[snip]

this is the third time in the past hour you've made this same post almost verbatim... methinks he doth protest too much

tell me, T, are you losing confidence? Cheesy

don't worry, just HODL and this whole thing will blow over in like a week. markets correct, though, they have to.

--arepo

Quote from: arepo on January 07, 2014, 08:05:22 AM

this is the third time in the past hour you've made this same post almost verbatim... methinks he doth protest too much

tell me, T, are you losing confidence? Cheesy

Just trying to keep up with your feverish activity Arepo! Cheesy

And it must take you a lot longer to prepare all your reports!

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-prices-rebound-from-previous-day%E2%80%99s-losses,-climb-5-to-usd950-258955

"Investing.com - Bitcoin prices regained strength on Wednesday, as demand for the virtual currency remained supported amid speculation an increasing number of online retailers will begin accepting Bitcoin payments in the year ahead."

EDIT: "Prices of the virtual currency tumbled approximately 12% on Tuesday as speculators booked profits from a recent rally which took prices of the virtual currency to a one-month high on Monday."

Believe in Bitcoin? Don't let them profit from you.

Quote from: TERA on January 07, 2014, 08:00:47 AM

Yep, with Bitcoin, anything can happen. Bitcoin is no place to allow complacency or 'normalcy' bias to take a grip, let alone allow hair-brained bulltard paradigms to dominate your thinking.

Having said that, I do dispute the 'low volume' argument. Low volume perhaps in comparison to Oct, Nov, and the mass December sell-offs. But overall, volume is above average for the past year.

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 08, 2014, 10:38:10 AM

The wise pay their due to KARHU, you would do well to follow their example or the price will be higher when all hope is lost in the valley of capitulation.

Quote from: KARHU on January 08, 2014, 12:00:04 PM

The wise pay their due to KARHU, you would do well to follow their example or the price will be higher when all hope is lost in the valley of capitulation.

Hey I was looking for someone to host emergency bear mass in the Whale Temple. Sounds like you're just the ticket! Fancy a job? Cheesy

NASDAQ displaying Investing.com article (same as above post) regarding growing confidence in Bitcoin!

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-prices-rebound-from-previous-day%E2%80%99s-losses,-climb-5-to-usd950-258955

Okay dude. We get it. You bought in at a high number and are uncomfortable with the ideas some are presenting about a final capitulation. Please stop with the permabull shit lets just ride this out for the next month or two and then continue our journey to the moon.

Quote from: sayaz on January 08, 2014, 12:52:48 PM

Still doing fine thanks!

It is a genuine point: there is a big difference in the situation now when compared with previous bubbles.

Don't know if you noticed but I'm enjoying researching what's going on and comparing what is happening with what some analysts are saying. I'm having a lot of fun! Don't read my stuff if it annoys you.

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 08, 2014, 12:02:19 PM

Quote from: KARHU on January 08, 2014, 12:00:04 PM

The wise pay their due to KARHU, you would do well to follow their example or the price will be higher when all hope is lost in the valley of capitulation.

Hey I was looking for someone to host emergency bear mass in the Whale Temple. Sounds like you're just the ticket! Fancy a job? Cheesy

A spirit does not worship itself mortal. The Whale Temple is a tribute to mere idolatry, ones which shall prove meaningless in the face of the ascendency of KARHU! Time is running out for you to pay your dues.....and time does not wait as we enter the long night of the ascendancy of KARHU as the Bull wanes in the long twilight.

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 08, 2014, 01:00:19 PM

Still doing fine thanks!

Shit!

I thought you bought in at $500 during previous crash. What price did you actually pay for your Bitcoin holdings on average? So when I suggested to to you yesterday that you take some profits (at prices $100 higher than they are just now), had you sold some Bitcoins, you would have actually realised nominal losses? If so, that kind of explains your increasing Bitcoin evangelicalism.

btw, you stopped 'researching' quite some time ago. What you are doing is colouring in your rose tainted picture. Bitcoin may go to 5 figures, but it could just as easily be destroyed and with it, all your wealth. you would do well to be aware of that. Little more than 1 month ago, we reading reports of Chinese state sponsored documentaries promoting Bitcoin, it was common knowledge that Bitcoin was ok with China, cos:

It helps fight their inflation (surplus CNY) problem.
It gives their citizens something of value to invest in.
China produces all the Mining gear
Chinese government is probably doing all the mining, after-all, only large scale operations are now capable of serious Bitcoin mining.
All China's top companies were getting on board.

One month later, we have a perceived Chinese Bitcoin ban 3 weeks around the corner cos:

Bitcoin facilitates capital flight from CNY into global currencies (with hindsight, were The Peoples Republic of 'pegged to the Dollar' ever going to allow this shit to spread unabated?)
It allows China's citizens to operate off the financial radar
All China's top companies are dropping it like a shit covered brick
Government is telling top retail websites to stop selling Mining Equipment

We have had two brutal corrections and are half way through the third (and perhaps final?) correction. We still have this China thing hanging over Bitcoin's head like the sword of Damocles, yet the only response the Bitcoin bulltard can muster to this issue is to either dismiss China's relevance (majority of global Bitcoin trades) or cling either further to more positive media stories.

Either you come to your senses and at least acknowledge that there are two side to the coin or prepare to either miss huge investment opportunities (sell high, buy much lower) or in the worst case scenario, watch in disbelief and crippling self-denial as your wealth turns to vapour.

Bitcoin's fate is NOT a foregone rosy conclusion!

Bitcoin has gotten too much heat early on. Now, its future lies in the hands of the authorities and financial powers that Bitcoin was meant to 'smash'. If the The Man gives Bitcoin the thumbs down, then Bitcoin is fk'd, at least as far as recent 3 and 4 figure valuations are concerned which is by now, all that any Bitcoiner really cares about. Bitcoiner is now relying on The Man, and The Man will only approve or allow Bitcoin if it is in his interest's to do so. If The Man can't control it, then he will kill it.

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 08, 2014, 01:37:27 PM

It helps fight their inflation (surplus CNY) problem.
It gives their citizens something of value to invest in.
China produces all the Mining gear
Chinese government is probably doing all the mining, after-all, only large scale operations are now capable of serious Bitcoin mining.
All China's top companies were getting on board.

One month later, we have a perceived Chinese Bitcoin ban 3 weeks around the corner cos:

Bitcoin facilitates capital flight from CNY into global currencies (with hindsight, were The Peoples Republic of 'pegged to the Dollar' ever going to allow this shit to spread unabated?)
It allows China's citizens to operate off the financial radar
All China's top companies are dropping it like a shit covered brick
Government is telling top retail websites to stop selling Mining Equipment

Thanks, this is a valuable writeup providing good perspective as to how not only the sentiment but the news narrative itself can rapidly change by 180 degrees, and thus, in truth, price action is king, because only on the charts depicting actual bets do we have the complete picture of people expressing their true beliefs.

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 08, 2014, 01:37:27 PM

Either you come to your senses and at least acknowledge that there are two side to the coin or prepare to either miss huge investment opportunities (sell high, buy much lower) or in the worst case scenario, watch in disbelief and crippling self-denial as your wealth turns to vapour.

Bitcoin's fate is NOT a foregone rosy conclusion!

Bitcoin has gotten too much heat early on. Now, its future lies in the hands of the authorities and financial powers that Bitcoin was meant to 'smash'. If the The Man gives Bitcoin the thumbs down, then Bitcoin is fk'd, at least as far as recent 3 and 4 figure valuations are concerned which is by now, all that any Bitcoiner really cares about.

MatTheCat...

All I can say is you definately put those bid orders too low yesterday!

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 08, 2014, 01:44:30 PM

MatTheCat...

All I can say is you definately put those bid orders too low yesterday!

Eh?

You think I expected them to come in right away?

I had to wait at least three or maybe even four whole days for my last orders to come in. I am amazed that I had so much patience!

btw...you really are beginning to sound frantic and in denial. You may not get punished for your self-delusion just now, but one day you will.

Yep, even if events just happen to continue to support your rosy paradigm for now, delusion it is.

Go and have a look at the Bitcoin charts, and note Bitcoin's uncanny tendency up until now to bottom out around major support levels. You may also note that there is no major support level @ ~$800. Past chart behaviour would indicate that Bitcoin is just resting before finding a more solid bottom.

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 08, 2014, 01:51:00 PM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 08, 2014, 01:44:30 PM

MatTheCat...

All I can say is you definately put those bid orders too low yesterday!

I'm not bullshitting you man.

What is happening now with this floaty volume and price gravitating up after the bubble is the result of a change in market psychology. Of course it might be fragile still depending on Chinese aggression (but becoming less fragile by the day) for example, but in its natural state it is in a whole different space than it was after previous bubbles. I can't understand why this isn't more obvious to you.

It's all part of the waning of volatility as time goes by. We are getting a good taste of it now. I venture to suggest that after years of becoming hardened to adrenaline pumping in their veins, some older Bitcoiners might almost feel like crying. "Where's the roller coaster?!!" I also think there are big traders who've been around for a long time who will get burned this time. They have millions on the sidelines and stubbornly refuse to put it in now. They will watch the price glide higher like a balloon and their chance to quadruple, triple, double their stash disappear with it. Unless of course they can find another way...

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 08, 2014, 01:59:55 PM

It's all part of the waning of volatility as time goes by. We are getting a good taste of it now. I venture to suggest that after years of becoming hardened to adrenaline pumping in their veins, some older Bitcoiners might almost feel like crying. "Where's the roller coaster?!!" I also think there are big traders who've been around for a long time who will get burned this time. They have millions on the sidelines and stubbornly refuse to put it in now. They will watch the price glide higher like a balloon and their chance to quadruple, triple, double their stash disappear with it. Unless of course they can find another way...

Anyone sitting 'stubbornly' with millions on the sidelines refusing to put it does so, because he knows that Bitcoin doesn't have the market depth for people rolling around millions of investment capital. What do you think would happen to the Winklevoss twins capital if they tried to convert it into USD? Whilst their investment may be 'worth' 10* what the paid in. If they wanted to exit Bitcoin, do you think that they would even be able to claw back their initial investment?

Oh yeah, and "waning of volatility"!? I would certainly love to see some of that!