The Casascius market of the future

[gentlemand]

This is a subject that I find pretty fascinating.

Assuming that Mike Caldwell doesn't continue with coin production, though I hope he does as I'll be lining up for more, where do you think the market for Casacius coins will go in the years to come?

Do you think the 2011 Error coin will continue to loom large in the minds of collectors or will other varieties become more desirable such as the final silver rounds?

If Bitcoin itself dies completely will Casascius coins gain a place in the numanistic pantheon?

Will there be so many fakes that even a genuine coin without a chain of title will become worthless?

If Bitcoin thrives will the value of a Casascius coin reduce the premiums they attract or will it decouple completely from the Bitcoin market and follow its own path upwards?

I'm very interested to learn what other people are thinking.

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[htspringer]

This is a subject that I find pretty fascinating.

Assuming that Mike Caldwell doesn't continue with coin production, though I hope he does as I'll be lining up for more, where do you think the market for Casacius coins will go in the years to come?

Do you think the 2011 Error coin will continue to loom large in the minds of collectors or will other varieties become more desirable such as the final silver rounds?

If Bitcoin itself dies completely will Casascius coins gain a place in the numanistic pantheon?

Will there be so many fakes that even a genuine coin without a chain of title will become worthless?

If Bitcoin thrives will the value of a Casascius coin reduce the premiums they attract or will it decouple completely from the Bitcoin market and follow its own path upwards?

I'm very interested to learn what other people are thinking.

I don't believe that numismatists are taking Casascius coins seriously because they're, frankly, on par with
Chuck e Cheese tokens from an aesthetic point of view.  Numismatists collect coins not just because they're rare... they collect coins that they think look cool...that they're artistically pleasing.

If bitcoin continues to rise, the value of Casascius coins will rise to a point.  When bitcoins are worth, say, $10,000 each, the value of Casascius coins will not rise commensurately, because counterfeiting will be rampant.  Right now a 25 BTC redeemed Casascius token is being sold on ebay, and the bids are coming in at over $560.  I have to wonder if the prices of these tokens are driven by the desire for counterfeiting.  I can't fathom why anyone would pay that kind of money for a redeemed token that has no face value.

Would you be willing to pay $50,000+ for a 5 bitcoin token that could easily be counterfeited and is protected only by a hologram sticker? 

[ixne]

Of course they will be more valuable if Casascius stops producing them. If Bitcoin truly hits the mainstream, these coins will be a very rare piece of history. The possibility of counterfeit exists in any collectible market, but Mike will provide signed attestation of coin purchases - try doing that with your Rembrandt or Morgan dollar.

Also, collectibility has absolutely nothing to do with aesthetics. Try to tell me with a straight face that an ancient Greek hemidrachm is pleasing to the eye...

[htspringer]

Of course they will be more valuable if Casascius stops producing them. If Bitcoin truly hits the mainstream, these coins will be a very rare piece of history. The possibility of counterfeit exists in any collectible market, but Mike will provide signed attestation of coin purchases - try doing that with your Rembrandt or Morgan dollar.

Also, collectibility has absolutely nothing to do with aesthetics. Try to tell me with a straight face that an ancient Greek hemidrachm is pleasing to the eye...

Collectibility has everything to do with aesthetics.  The value of a coin is a matter of supply and demand.  Look at the buffalo silver dollars, for example.  500,000 were minted by the US government, beginning in  2001.  They are now worth between $150 and $300 each.  Why?  Not simply because they are "rare"... Because the demand is higher than the supply because people think they look cool.  If those same silver dollars were tacky, no one would want them and the price would drop.  Casascius coins are rare, hence valuable.  They would, however, be far more valuable if they had some real artistic value.  How many collectors outside of those already committed to bitcoin are interested in Casascius coins?  I don't know any. 

[bitmarket.io]

they'll grow exponentially

[gentlemand]

Of course they will be more valuable if Casascius stops producing them. If Bitcoin truly hits the mainstream, these coins will be a very rare piece of history. The possibility of counterfeit exists in any collectible market, but Mike will provide signed attestation of coin purchases - try doing that with your Rembrandt or Morgan dollar.

Also, collectibility has absolutely nothing to do with aesthetics. Try to tell me with a straight face that an ancient Greek hemidrachm is pleasing to the eye...

Collectibility has everything to do with aesthetics.  The value of a coin is a matter of supply and demand.  Look at the buffalo silver dollars, for example.  500,000 were minted by the US government, beginning in  2001.  They are now worth between $150 and $300 each.  Why?  Not simply because they are "rare"... Because the demand is higher than the supply because people think they look cool.  If those same silver dollars were tacky, no one would want them and the price would drop.  Casascius coins are rare, hence valuable.  They would, however, be far more valuable if they had some real artistic value.  How many collectors outside of those already committed to bitcoin are interested in Casascius coins?  I don't know any.  

Casascius coins are a fringe element of a fringe currency experiment so they're going to be an obscurity for a good while yet. I'd guess committed coin collectors would tend to be innately conservative.

I do find it hard to love the brass coins. The silver examples are very handsome items. As for actual artistic merit, I can't see a huge amount in evidence. They are pleasing designs to me at least.

[htspringer]

Of course they will be more valuable if Casascius stops producing them. If Bitcoin truly hits the mainstream, these coins will be a very rare piece of history. The possibility of counterfeit exists in any collectible market, but Mike will provide signed attestation of coin purchases - try doing that with your Rembrandt or Morgan dollar.

Also, collectibility has absolutely nothing to do with aesthetics. Try to tell me with a straight face that an ancient Greek hemidrachm is pleasing to the eye...

Collectibility has everything to do with aesthetics.  The value of a coin is a matter of supply and demand.  Look at the buffalo silver dollars, for example.  500,000 were minted by the US government, beginning in  2001.  They are now worth between $150 and $300 each.  Why?  Not simply because they are "rare"... Because the demand is higher than the supply because people think they look cool.  If those same silver dollars were tacky, no one would want them and the price would drop.  Casascius coins are rare, hence valuable.  They would, however, be far more valuable if they had some real artistic value.  How many collectors outside of those already committed to bitcoin are interested in Casascius coins?  I don't know any.  

Casascius coins are a fringe element of a fringe currency experiment so they're going to be an obscurity for a good while yet. I'd guess committed coin collectors would tend to be innately conservative.

I do find it hard to love the brass coins. The silver examples are very handsome items. As for actual artistic merit, I can't see a huge amount in evidence. They are pleasing designs to me at least.

You can describe bitcoins as a "fringe currency" now, but that designation will be short-lived.
When bitcoins are worth $20,000 each, even the silver Casascius coins will look very inadequate to represent bitcoins. 

I agree... The silver coins look a lot better than the brass coins.  It's a step in the right direction.... and I think lower denominations are also a good idea.