DPR's Bitcoin Stash future sell off by the gov't panic ensues ..

[Dr Bloggood]

Just say they did start selling off large amounts at a time. How would that affect the market?

Good question.   It would probably have a short term impact on the prices decreasing. Might even lead to some panic selling.  But as soon as word started to spread that it was simply the fbi selling their bitcoins back to the market and not a price drop because of anything negative in regards to bitcoin then i would assume the prices would bounce back up pretty quick.

Just my thoughts.

Ok, but how do you calculate that?

How far would a sale of 144.000 BTCs at once bring the market down? I don't think it could do much damage, but just interested to learn.

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[nodroids]

Done well, a 144,000 stash over say 1 week to 2 months could affect the market quite a lot. I think we could go back to $300ish. As I understand, there are only 30,000 btc on the markets in a given day, not including all the bitcoins that get traded back and forth by day traders multiple times per day, but unique coins that haven't been on the market for a good while. Now whether a technically HFT induced crash could succeed again (that was all that I could tell brought the $266 run crashing down) I would find very doubtful (we've already seen it and thus won't be too shook).  But I do think that such volume as 144,000 done well over 4-16 days could put a dent in market cap. If they were trying to get the absolute least for their asset when instead, if they just sit on it and try to get the most for it, it'll probably be worth $100s of Millions if not a Billion$ in just 6 months.
This is all assuming they have access to it, which is doubtful as the seizure is being contested legally (thus he hasn't given over encryption yet).

[Bitcoinpro]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/07/the-silk-roads-libertas-is-free-to-the-annoyance-of-us-authorities/

Gov't is spooking the cryptomarket on purpose....  HOLD TIGHT DAMN IT!

“The reason for selling is that the Government has lost faith in the value of bitcoin and does not want to deal with the volatility of the currency,” the source said.

LOL

Does it belong to them already, I thought it would have to go to court to actually seize them properly.

[Bitcoinpro]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/07/the-silk-roads-libertas-is-free-to-the-annoyance-of-us-authorities/

Gov't is spooking the cryptomarket on purpose....

...So that they can get less for the assets than they would have otherwise?  In any event, this isn't even the worst news of the day, since sources have disclosed that the Chinese and US governments have entered an agreement whereby they work to filter out and block all cryptocurrency network traffic.  Look it up.  It's been confirmed via sources.

your uncle?

[P_Shep]

As someone mentioned elsewhere... it's unlikely that the FBI would create an account on MtGOX to sell them, they're more likely to auction them off somehow. That then probably wouldn't have much of a disastrous effect on the exchanges as it'll be independent of them. In fact, it may well help as it might involve parties who would otherwise not use exchanges.

[BurtW]

1) Yes the ownership is or will be, of course, contested.  So they cannot sell them until that is settled.
2) He probably had to turn over the keys in order to contest the ownership and/or to cut a deal.  In any case AFAWK the FBI does control the two addresses.
3) They will not sell them until everything (ownership, guilt, etc.) is all settled and appealed.
4) When they sell them they will not use any exchange, they will auction them off just like they do all other seized assets (gold, cars, boats, houses) through their already established methods and protocols.
5) I expect that they want the most USD they can get (not the least) - as this all goes directly into their budgets.
6) These people are not stupid and (for the most part) they do follow the law or their own internal regulations.  We are not talking about the CIA or NSA here.
7) They do not give a shit as to what Bitcoin is, whither a currency, asset, "digital gold" or whatever.  That is not their job.  They just want the most USD they can get to line their budgets.

I could be wrong.  I would be willing to bet on this but the event (sale of the BTC) is so many years in the future that placing a bet is not very practical.  I wish I could in order to just shut up the hundreds of threads on this same subject every day, day after day.  It gets very tedious.

I guess I could bet "The FBI will not sell or otherwise dispose of the DPR coins in the next year"  but who would be stupid enough to take the opposite side on this bet?

[Dr Bloggood]

1) Yes the ownership is or will be, of course, contested.  So they cannot sell them until that is settled.
2) He probably had to turn over the keys in order to contest the ownership and/or to cut a deal.  In any case AFAWK the FBI does control the two addresses.
3) They will not sell them until everything (ownership, guilt, etc.) is all settled and appealed.
4) When they sell them they will not use any exchange, they will auction them off just like they do all other seized assets (gold, cars, boats, houses) through their already established methods and protocols.
5) I expect that they want the most USD they can get (not the least) - as this all goes directly into their budgets.
6) These people are not stupid and (for the most part) they do follow the law or their own internal regulations.  We are not talking about the CIA or NSA here.
7) They do not give a shit as to what Bitcoin is, whither a currency, asset, "digital gold" or whatever.  That is not their job.  They just want the most USD they can get to line their budgets.

I could be wrong.  I would be willing to bet on this but the event (sale of the BTC) is so many years in the future that placing a bet is not very practical.  I wish I could in order to just shut up the hundreds of threads on this same subject every day, day after day.  It gets very tedious.

I guess I could bet "The FBI will not sell or otherwise dispose of the DPR coins in the next year"  but who would be stupid enough to take the opposite side on this bet?

Yes, this sounds all very reasonable. You could also add another point about that amount of BTC sold into the market all at once can't make too much of a dent (I suppose). But how do you calculate that?

It's 144.000 BTCs, which are 1,2% of the total mined BTCs currently in existence (but that percentage will drop, as more BTCs are mined, so it will make even less of an effect).

Can you calculate what the maximum effect would be of all the BTCs sold at once? Would be interesting to know, regardless of Silk Road.

[BurtW]

Go here:  

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Pick a market, GOX for example:  

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

Now click on the market depth tab, scroll down and enter your sell order in the calculator.

I get:  Sell 144,000 BTC for 35,160,043.93 USD

Below the calculator you can see the table.  Unfortunatly it does not show the entire order book.

However if you take 35,160,043.93 / 144,000 you will see the average price they would get would be $244 per BTC so the lowest they would get would be very small.

Someone else can tell you the exact number - but this is all moot.

This is because the public order book does not show all the orders.  There are many large orders in the book that are not public.  So it is impossible to say for sure.  However $244 per BTC is just STUPID so they will not do that.
 

[mel2000]

Does it belong to them already, I thought it would have to go to court to actually seize them properly.

I too was wondering how the gov could sell seized assets of someone who has not had a trial.

[Walsoraj]

Does it belong to them already, I thought it would have to go to court to actually seize them properly.

I too was wondering how the gov could sell seized assets of someone who has not had a trial.

The accused consents to the sale without waiving the right to a trial. Why would someone do that? Because both the accused and gov realize the asset will likely be worthless if they wait until the case is resolved.

Ross may never see the cash. But, at least there is something waiting for him if he can prove his innocence.

[BurtW]

Does it belong to them already, I thought it would have to go to court to actually seize them properly.

I too was wondering how the gov could sell seized assets of someone who has not had a trial.

The accused consents to the sale without waiving the right to a trial. Why would someone do that? Because both the accused and gov realize the asset will likely be worthless if they wait until the case is resolved.

Ross may never see the cash. But, at least there is something waiting for him if he can prove his innocence.

What if the accused does not consent to the sale before trial etc.?

[Peter R]

This is all assuming they have access to it, which is doubtful as the seizure is being contested legally (thus he hasn't given over encryption yet).

nodroids, here is the address that contains all or a fraction of DPR's personal coins: https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH .  You can see that coins were moved to this address after Ross's arrest in increments of 324 BTC (FBI on telephone key-pad).  You said "he hasn't given over encryption yet."  Are you suggesting that it was not in fact the FBI who moved these coins to this address?

I find that very doubtful, but, in a way, it could have been a brilliant 'dead man switch' if Ross had the foresight to implement it.  Write a program to send your coins in increments of 324 BTCs to a new address (that you also control) with a time-delay such that the transfer happens when you are in jail and makes it look like an FBI seizure.  Now you have plausible deniability that you actually even have the coins ("it was clearly the FBI who moved those coins, your honour").  Better yet, if you win the case, you can sue the FBI for your coins back.  It would be a real legal mess.  

[C. Bergmann]

thanks for sharing.

come on guys around ...did you read the source?

The FBI has to defend a budget. Did you really thought they'll operate with around 200.000 Million Dollar in Bitcoins? Why should they? To promote bitcoin? 

And about the dump: How stupid do you think they are to dump this gigantic peace of money in one act and let bitcoin crash to zero? Don't you think they calculate the profit?

 

[fluidjax]

DPR's coins have been discussed repeatedly.
But there is no information, everything is simply FUD.
facebook, 500, underlying trend.... etc etc..
Some people have a lot of fiat and want back in at a better price.

[Realpra]

Proudhon got banned? I was wondering what all the panic posts were about. You pissed Proudhon?

No just quiet for a while.. I thought.. from his activity history it seems I just missed it.. 

[QuestionAuthority]

Proudhon got banned? I was wondering what all the panic posts were about. You pissed Proudhon?

No just quiet for a while.. I thought.. from his activity history it seems I just missed it.. 

Oh, I thought because you said "keep the bans flowing" you were talking about him getting banned. I haven't seen him post in a while either and then he starts spreading a China joke thread around about how stupid people are by falling for the China news and moving the market. 

[Voogru]

1) Yes the ownership is or will be, of course, contested.  So they cannot sell them until that is settled.
2) He probably had to turn over the keys in order to contest the ownership and/or to cut a deal.  In any case AFAWK the FBI does control the two addresses.
3) They will not sell them until everything (ownership, guilt, etc.) is all settled and appealed.
4) When they sell them they will not use any exchange, they will auction them off just like they do all other seized assets (gold, cars, boats, houses) through their already established methods and protocols.
5) I expect that they want the most USD they can get (not the least) - as this all goes directly into their budgets.
6) These people are not stupid and (for the most part) they do follow the law or their own internal regulations.  We are not talking about the CIA or NSA here.
7) They do not give a shit as to what Bitcoin is, whither a currency, asset, "digital gold" or whatever.  That is not their job.  They just want the most USD they can get to line their budgets.

I could be wrong.  I would be willing to bet on this but the event (sale of the BTC) is so many years in the future that placing a bet is not very practical.  I wish I could in order to just shut up the hundreds of threads on this same subject every day, day after day.  It gets very tedious.

I guess I could bet "The FBI will not sell or otherwise dispose of the DPR coins in the next year"  but who would be stupid enough to take the opposite side on this bet?

And the fun part is, what idiot is going to buy the bitcoins if they know that the government is going to act against bitcoin, destroying the value?

Hint: Nobody.

So in order for them to be sold in some sort of auction, whoever buys them is going to probably want some actual assurance that the government isn't all of a sudden going to take a position that will destroy the value of the thing they just purchased.

So it's going to be some sort of insider that buys them.

Fascism for the win!

[BurtW]

They have several of their own auction web side for Christ's sake.  Why would the do anything other than just post them up there for everyone to bid on?  Example:

http://www.govsales.gov

That is all they need to do to conver them to USD (when the time comes).

The US gov is not going to "move against" Bitcoin.  Why does everyone keep saying that over and over and over.  Do you have any facts to support your position?

The only question I have is how big will the lots be.  100 BTC?  1,000 BTC?  10,000 BTC?  That will be interesting.

[BurtW]

Here is an interesting item on one of the gov auction site:

AIRCRAFT, CH-47D CHINOOK
Item Number: 91QSCI14027601
Sale Type: Internet Auction
State: AL
Close Date: 01/20/2014
Close Time: 11:00 AM CT
Number Of Bidders: 0
Current Bid:
$1,000,000.00

So you cannot say they don't auction off esoteric and expensive stuff.

[Dr Bloggood]

Go here:  

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Pick a market, GOX for example:  

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

Now click on the market depth tab, scroll down and enter your sell order in the calculator.

I get:  Sell 144,000 BTC for 35,160,043.93 USD

Below the calculator you can see the table.  Unfortunatly it does not show the entire order book.

However if you take 35,160,043.93 / 144,000 you will see the average price they would get would be $244 per BTC so the lowest they would get would be very small.

Someone else can tell you the exact number - but this is all moot.

This is because the public order book does not show all the orders.  There are many large orders in the book that are not public.  So it is impossible to say for sure.  However $244 per BTC is just STUPID so they will not do that.
 

Awesome, thanks a lot!

I just don't see the $244, where is that?