What's after 3TH machines. What's the timeframe?

[rdnkjdi]

Just a disclaimer - I'm a noob.  

After this next release of miners going up to 3TH large companies will move mining in house and continue the arms race seems to be the consensus.

My question is ... speculatively speaking what comes after these latest machines?  From what I can tell - efficiency has increased approximately sixfold from Jupiter to Neptune.

My impression (and this could be completely wrong) is the efficiency squeezed out of the new technology was the low hanging fruit.  But isn't producing a machine that is twice as $/Mhs efficient as current gen Neptunes going to be as difficult as the 6X jump from Jupiter to Neptune?

[Aseras]

Everyone but the guys selling the machines are getting hosed now. The low hanging fruit was the first 4 months of last year and the end of the gpu game. ASIC has disrupted everything and tipped the scales in favor of the big boys, old money BTC hoarders and corporate mining and speculators day trading and manipulating the market.

If you aren't in neck deep now and have a few TH and/or have at least several hundred BTC, the mining game is over. Spend your money buying bitcoin on bad news days when it dips and hold.

[rdnkjdi]

Yeah ... I've dug into the difficulty projections just a little and agree with you.

Guess what I don't quite get is if ASICS are obsolete as far as break even on the hardware while the hardware company is still selling them.  Eventually something has to give.  Wondering what that will be and how.

Higher prices plus the manufacturers switching from individual investors to deeper pockets.  Or just internalize all their own equipment with the money they've made with the first and second gen ASICS.

[timmmers]

 Or just internalize all their own equipment with the money they've made with the first and second gen ASICS.

That seems logical to me, they get them at a fraction of the price that we do, so break even is much easier and their working life will be longer. Even that will end though eventually.

What I'm wondering is how things will work when they crank it up a level to 14nm or so...who will be funding those? Pre-order again, or will we even see them at all on sale if they don't need the funding? After all, if we can buy a fast rig and make a profit, they can do better keeping it to mine for themselves. Save all that hassle with unhappy punters too.

This is all very short term stuff, the last bitcoin won't be mined for a very long time yet...in 5 years from now things will be very different from today without a doubt...the exchange rate may make slower rigs worth running even then if it explodes and supply can't keep up with demand.

I'd love to know what large private developments are going on that we don't know about too. Got to be some completely in-house dev and mining going on at some point.

[nitehawk]

thought there was already someone working on the 20nm chips  smaller chips = faster speed

[vpasic]

IMHO
we can expect 5, 7 and even 10TH miners in late summer or beginning of fall this year.

[Sitarow]

IMHO
we can expect 5, 7 and even 10TH miners in late summer or beginning of fall this year.

At this time 3TB is expected to need close to 2500 watt of electricity. Most "miners" may find that this is the economic maximum a system manufacturer can pull without adversely effecting product sales.

[Bitweasil]

You still can't power 2500W on a standard home circuit in the USA.  Most homes have 110v wiring, at 15A or 20A.  That puts a reasonable max of 1500W per circuit, and even that's pushing it pretty hard for a lot of homes.  You basically require 240v for a 2500W system.  Many people in the US don't have access to that, or only have that wired for the laundry room and kitchen.

[timmmers]

Looking like people from the USA have some expensive options there then, hosting or rewires...or hope that KNC manage to get Neptunes under the estimated 2.5Kw ?

[BitcoinBarrel]

A Salute to Home Miners

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vQpW9XRiyM

[Aseras]

You still can't power 2500W on a standard home circuit in the USA.  Most homes have 110v wiring, at 15A or 20A.  That puts a reasonable max of 1500W per circuit, and even that's pushing it pretty hard for a lot of homes.  You basically require 240v for a 2500W system.  Many people in the US don't have access to that, or only have that wired for the laundry room and kitchen.

If someone can afford to drop >$10K+ on hardware, they can drop $200-$500 to drop a new power outlet in and have it wired professionally, or co-locate their equipment.

[smoothrunnings]

You still can't power 2500W on a standard home circuit in the USA.  Most homes have 110v wiring, at 15A or 20A.  That puts a reasonable max of 1500W per circuit, and even that's pushing it pretty hard for a lot of homes.  You basically require 240v for a 2500W system.  Many people in the US don't have access to that, or only have that wired for the laundry room and kitchen.

If someone can afford to drop >$10K+ on hardware, they can drop $200-$500 to drop a new power outlet in and have it wired professionally, or co-locate their equipment.

Really and what if the people who dropped $10k on a miner used bitcoins and not actual fiat money? I personally will never convert bitcoin to fiat as it's too risky, the exchanges don't seem to care enough to stick handle the hand off between the seller and buyers.

[hyphymikey]

2500W!!! 3 Phase electricity right there

[zimmah]

You still can't power 2500W on a standard home circuit in the USA.  Most homes have 110v wiring, at 15A or 20A.  That puts a reasonable max of 1500W per circuit, and even that's pushing it pretty hard for a lot of homes.  You basically require 240v for a 2500W system.  Many people in the US don't have access to that, or only have that wired for the laundry room and kitchen.

One nice thing about living in Europe, where 210/220 is the standard.

[Bitweasil]

2500W!!! 3 Phase electricity right there

Cute.   Doesn't even run one proper server flat out.

Now, if you're talking about 2500A of 480v, then we can talk.

[fattypig]

You still can't power 2500W on a standard home circuit in the USA.  Most homes have 110v wiring, at 15A or 20A.  That puts a reasonable max of 1500W per circuit, and even that's pushing it pretty hard for a lot of homes.  You basically require 240v for a 2500W system.  Many people in the US don't have access to that, or only have that wired for the laundry room and kitchen.

You can always ask your electrician to make 30A or 50A wiring...