Mining profit in 2014

[therealbigcoin]

Do you guys think if im buying now a terahash miner i will get my mone in in 2-3 months?
The problem is the delivery delay and many scam sites but i think http://bitmine.ch/?page_id=919 looks legit and there is a real company behind.
But they never delivered the dezember batch so im afraid to buy now the march batch ..

What do you recommend?

Greetings

[lassdas]

Do you guys think if im buying now a terahash miner i will get my mone in in 2-3 months?

No, you'll never get your money back.


Let's take those rigs for sale on bitmine as an example an do some maths:

1TH/s price: $6229
Current BTC-rate: ~$820

6229/820= ~7.6BTC per TH/s

Shipping march and being optimistic with our difficulty-assumption (only ~20% per 2016 blocks)
1TH/s will generate around 6.6BTC, ever!

So with an investment of 7.6BTC you'll be able to generate 6.6BTC
and that's not even taking power consumption into account.


Better forget about mining and just buy some bitcoins. 

[Flashman]

Yup unfortunately I think we're heading into the era of superscale mining, where you can cut deals for bulk hardware, bulk electricity and go where space is cheap.

[humd1ng3r]

I think most people are thrown off by the difficulty increase percentages that people are throwing around. They are assuming a 20% raise every single time. This gives too much weight on the principle of compound interest. All you need is for one block to remain even or decrease in value to throw off the percentages for the long run. For example:

Compounding difficulty increase:
 1,418,481,395.00
 1,702,177,674.00 - 20%
 2,042,613,208.80 - 20%
 2,451,135,850.56 - 20%
 2,941,363,020.67 - 20%
 3,529,635,624.81 - 20%
 4,235,562,749.77 - 20%
 5,082,675,299.72 - 20%
 6,099,210,359.67 - 20%
 7,319,052,431.60 - 20%

With one breakeven period
 1,418,481,395.00 - 20%
 1,702,177,674.00 - 20%
 2,042,613,208.80 - 20%
2,042,613,208.80 - 0%
 2,451,135,850.56 - 20%
 2,941,363,020.67 - 20%
 3,529,635,624.81 - 20%
 4,235,562,749.77 - 20%
 5,082,675,299.72 - 20%
 6,099,210,359.67 - 20%

I think this is what most people that are buying ASIC's are betting on happening. Especially here in the first quarter of '14.

[dspearce]

You're better off speculating with some Scrypt mining, buy some GPU's they will especially hold their resale value!

[terman45x]

This gives too much weight on the principle of compound interest. All you need is for one block to remain even or decrease in value to throw off the percentages for the long run.

It is just two weeks of difficulty increase delay. Now compare it with preordering hardware with months of delay (delivery dates are not guaranteed for preorders by ASIC manufacturers)

[lassdas]

They are assuming a 20% raise every single time.

And that's quite optimistic!

What do you think will happen, when all those TH/s-machines offered today get sold and are actually delivered?
You can be happy, if difficulty raises only 20% on average specially here in the first quarter of '14. 

But anyway, if you wanna risk your money, your choice,
I will never recover the loss i made with asic-investments, not that i care much,
if you also don't care about a loss, go fo it, I'll happily come around to say "told you so". 

[FiatKiller]

This is the year of scrypt ASICs! Not quite as big a boom as last year because they will mostly only save power, but still.

[therealbigcoin]

So with an investment of 7.6BTC you'll be able to generate 6.6BTC
and that's not even taking power consumption into account.

Why do you think i will never create more than 6.6 BTC? If i run the machine i will get very little amounts maybe , but it create amounts. And so after  i reached 6.6 why do you think i will not create more? after one day of running i will have 6.60001 BTC maybe thats ok it increase (maybe i have a naive thinking, i just wanna understand)
And After the difficulty is extremly rising i could change to an altcoin, right? I could mine peercoins and exchange it to bitcoin so its also increasing.

You're better off speculating with some Scrypt mining, buy some GPU's they will especially hold their resale value!

I was searching already for scrypt-mining chips but there are nothing or do you know some? I would really buy pci-scrypt-mining-cards not radeon r9 290 but i think thats future music ^^

Greetings

TRBC

[coinnext]

Do you guys think if im buying now a terahash miner i will get my mone in in 2-3 months?

Your chances are slim to none

[Light]

Why do you think i will never create more than 6.6 BTC? If i run the machine i will get very little amounts maybe , but it create amounts. And so after  i reached 6.6 why do you think i will not create more? after one day of running i will have 6.60001 BTC maybe thats ok it increase (maybe i have a naive thinking, i just wanna understand)
And After the difficulty is extremly rising i could change to an altcoin, right? I could mine peercoins and exchange it to bitcoin so its also increasing.

Your not going to create any significant amount more than 6.6 BTC from those calcs, you might created 0.000001 in the next block and so forth in decreasing amounts to the point where you get nothing (i.e your earnings approach zero per block). Wrong, you can't change to an altcoin because those are based on scrypt which is a different to the SHA-256 used by Bitcoin making your miner incompatible. To mine altcoins at the moment you need to use GPUs as there are no ASICs in existence for altcoins.

[therealbigcoin]

Why do you think i will never create more than 6.6 BTC? If i run the machine i will get very little amounts maybe , but it create amounts. And so after  i reached 6.6 why do you think i will not create more? after one day of running i will have 6.60001 BTC maybe thats ok it increase (maybe i have a naive thinking, i just wanna understand)
And After the difficulty is extremly rising i could change to an altcoin, right? I could mine peercoins and exchange it to bitcoin so its also increasing.

Your not going to create any significant amount more than 6.6 BTC from those calcs, you might created 0.000001 in the next block and so forth in decreasing amounts to the point where you get nothing (i.e your earnings approach zero per block). Wrong, you can't change to an altcoin because those are based on scrypt which is a different to the SHA-256 used by Bitcoin making your miner incompatible. To mine altcoins at the moment you need to use GPUs as there are no ASICs in existence for altcoins.

Its wrong that there are no SHA-256 altcoins, look at this list of alternatives that not require a scrypt miner:

http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency/?sha256HashRate=2000000.00&sha256Power=3000&sha256PowerCost=0.1000&scryptHashRate=830.00&scryptPower=600.00&scryptPowerCost=0.1000&sha256Check=true&scryptCheck=false

Greetings

[FiatKiller]

Why do you think i will never create more than 6.6 BTC? If i run the machine i will get very little amounts maybe , but it create amounts. And so after  i reached 6.6 why do you think i will not create more? after one day of running i will have 6.60001 BTC maybe thats ok it increase (maybe i have a naive thinking, i just wanna understand)
And After the difficulty is extremly rising i could change to an altcoin, right? I could mine peercoins and exchange it to bitcoin so its also increasing.

Your not going to create any significant amount more than 6.6 BTC from those calcs, you might created 0.000001 in the next block and so forth in decreasing amounts to the point where you get nothing (i.e your earnings approach zero per block). Wrong, you can't change to an altcoin because those are based on scrypt which is a different to the SHA-256 used by Bitcoin making your miner incompatible. To mine altcoins at the moment you need to use GPUs as there are no ASICs in existence for altcoins.

Orders have already been placed with one company for Scrypt ASICs and another company is imminent. You are correct that they are not in the hands of miners yet, but they have been designed.

[manboy1688]

 

[PerrythePlatypus]

Highly unlikely to ROI now. Difficulty rising too fast.