Yes, I have plenty of faults and weaknesses but one of my strengths seems to be seeing the big picture -- taking a thousand points of data and forming a coherent picture from it.
I would certainly say that everything I'm saying should be taken only at face-value. I *hate* it when people read things in, and put words in my mouth.
If I say that the 7000 series should be prudently considered, I mean it should be prudently considered. I'm not "between the lines" saying anything about Bitcoin, mining, the South African government, or the relationship between Bert and Ernie.
I'll try to keep posting amusing posts -- sometimes I get too busy to post, but I haven't given up the forum yet.
Sorry to intervene on such an intriguing conversation
I also have made many calls as the one you mention, the total inevitable collapse of the dollar, major disruptions on world economy.
I also invested heavily on gold in 2006 and 2007, and then again in 2010.
Moreover , I am from Europe but I have lived and worked for a short while in 1999 in The Great State of Texas
, Austin to be precise.
I simply Love the place, the people, the countryside, a great time no doubt, and I miss it a lot.
Just before that I was in Brasil researching in a University. At the time Everyone exchanged immediately from Real to USD$ as soon as they got their payments.
When I was there everyone told me. ... you must be crazy ?!?! Why don't you exchange right away to the US$ ?!?!
It was with surprise everyone listened to me explaining the basis of international economics, and how their Government at the time was really heading in the right direction and things will be ok on the contrary to the rest of the world ... they all stared at me thinking I must be crazy ... after all this time (13 years) however the numbers are clear: If I had "exchanged" to the dollar instead of keeping the cash in Brazilian Real Central Bank certificates (Brazilian Gov Debt) I would have lost 65% of the value instead of a very great 56% Gain on a zero risk app (0 risk apart from exchange rates).
Moreover: I only bought a house for me and my wife in 2008, yeah, the peak of the crisis ... for everyone to understand How Accurate my forecast have been here is the picture:
I needed at the time a loan and spreads for me where about 0.25% in my case. Spreads are the Bank margin over ECB rate Euribor. Today at 1.5%
It involved negociating with lots of banks an I had a huge deal on the financing in the middle of a world crisis.
The point was I am now paying Less then Half the cash monthly as I would by Renting the same house I live in with my wife.
You guys would not understand the Enormous pressure I had to put to in order to convince my wife to live with me a very (like Very) small apartment for 10 years!
In a time where Everyone we knew that actually earned a Lot Less then we did had Huge Houses ... I mean Huge houses, not apartments. ...
Today when I meet them they can not even stand to look at me in the eyes ...
Not that my wife was ever into managing our savings, but now she does not even ask for any investment we make ...
I could mention so many other things you do not even imagine ... things where I gained and were literally to put my money where my mouth is against everyone else common sense.
My forecasts, some of them long term forecasts, where Dead On.
So I dare anyone to show a track record compare to what I have done.
And all this in an environment where everyone considered me a complete fool. It was "obvious" I was wrong ... houses prices never came down ... dollar will not fall ... Gold is a dead investment and so many more things.
Hence I really see a major downfall of the US$ and yes, I see bitcoins as Way More safe then any US$. For several reasons.
I do see bitcoins as the new World coin. Just think about increasing bank and Credit card fees ...
And lets face it: No country is a safe guardian of currency and actually gold is kind of hard to be used as a trade and exchange.
Examples abound: the Euro is also a mess although only for a short time of a couple of years, the Yen is what we all know but even like that I trust it more then the US$. We could go on and on with all other currencies ...
Bitcoins, gold, and some other assets are immune to this debacle of currencies, with the US$ at the top of devaluation, risking a major major tumble.
I agree on your stance over the 7000 series. It will be faster no doubt. It Certainly be Much Less power hungry. How much?
We do not know.
But I must remind you that the 28nm is made by TSMC. The initial date is already set back one year from the original date ...
So I think that top of line boards will not be here before Q1 2010 at best.
They will certainly not be aimed at mining ... and also, like you said, many people have 6990 on major rig operations.
For that reason I can not see the big farmers exchanging their current 6990 for 7990 ... some have not even pay for the investment ...
Also there is the question of the 7990 availability, like I have said before ... going from 40nm to 28nm is not the same as going from 32nm to 28nm ... and TSMC (a company I really appreciate by the way) already made some blops on the way to 32nm ...
And they will cost more then the current 6990 for sure. Once again, how much no one knows (initial technology (28nm) costs are very very high ... ).
I am about to buy 20X 6990 and can even go for 40 X 6990 ... these boards will be profitable for a long time ... maybe longer then what we think.
If you actually see the big picture I would strongly suggest you take into consideration _ALL_ market conditions that point to a Hugelly undervalued bitcoin at current prices.
I think 35US$ / BTC is actually a very low exchange rate.