How Many TH will you need to mine 1 BTC per month in January 2015?

[cdog]

Simple poll, how many TH will a miner need to strut out a year from now to mine one BTC in the month of January 2015?

For those thinking about getting into mining now, or selling some coins when BTC goes back over $1k, you might want to pay careful attention here.

Personally, I think its a great time to buy some coins. 2014 is going to be epic!

[1715072417]

1715072417

[AvalonMiner]

Honestly I think it will be a large amount maybe 5TH. The difficulty will be in the multi-billions by then but the price will match

[semzor]

about 15-25 TH if hash speed grows like this
maybe btc would worth 5k by then

[cdog]

For those of you who voted 25TH and below, whats your reasoning behind the difficulty plateauing in 2014?

[baddw]

For those of you who voted 25TH and below, whats your reasoning behind the difficulty plateauing in 2014?

I don't see difficulty plateauing per se, but I see the rate of increase dropping dramatically.  It is currently in exponential mode due to the large-scale rollout of ASICs which are hugely faster than the previous generation mining tech.  2nd gen ASICs (28/20nm) see good improvements over previous gen hardware, but not comparable to 1st gen ASIC over GPU mining, or GPU mining over CPU mining.  We are now getting to where the state-of-the-art is limited by Moore's Law.

However, now that ASICs (1st gen) are "the new normal"/baseline, and there is no known, comparable disruptive technology in the near future, we are limited to mundane things like:

1) Amount of chips produced
2) Amount of power available at hosting facilities
3) Amount of money investors are willing to spend on new mining tech

For these reasons, I see the difficulty continuing to increase, but once the 2nd gen ASICs hit the market fully (6-9 months?) the difficulty increases will start to become linear instead of exponential.

[mcleo]

Pretty crazy predictions here... makes me re-think my investment.  Put about 1/3 of my income into mining gear in the past 5 months... I have got no fiat back, of course if i cashed out my btc I would be good.  Sad though because this gear is so nice, hard to believe how fast it will be obsolete.

[Korbman]

For those of you who voted 25TH and below, whats your reasoning behind the difficulty plateauing in 2014?

Some quick 'napkin' math says 25TH/s for BTC1 would require the difficulty to be, what, around 350B or so (network hashing speed at ~3500PH/s).
That's essentially the equivalent of selling 1.75 million Cointerra TerraMiner IVs, worth ~$10 billion.

Impossible? Definitely not, it could certainly happen. But over 12 months? Probably not. Bitcoin has a lot of growing to do before it reach that point.

[Clayce]

One meeeeeeeeellllliiiiooonnnn TH......

[mgio]

This is actually really simple.

First, let's assume BTC is $1000/btc at that time. It reality it could be way higher or way lower, but I think that's a reasonable guess for now.
 
Assume the most efficient miner available is 0.5w/GH/s and average electricity rate is $0.15/kwh.

That means spending $1000/month in electricity will get you 9,250 GH/s of hashing power.

For 9,250 GH/s of hashing power to make you 1 btc/month, difficulty would have to be at about 140 billion.

It reality miners need to make money to cover the cost of their hardware, so I doubt difficulty will go much higher than 100 billion if btc is at $1000, but around 100 billion is a good guess.

EDIT: so the answer is really less than 9250 GH/s.

It CAN'T be much more than this because the electricity cost to run the miners would be more than the miners would make assuming BTC is still around $1000/btc.

We aren't going to see miners more efficient than 0.5 w/GH/s either and even that is pushing it. That part you can be sure of.

[mgio]

For those of you who voted 25TH and below, whats your reasoning behind the difficulty plateauing in 2014?

Difficulty can not get anywhere near that high unless one of a two things happen:

1) The price of bitcoin goes up several times to $3,000 or more.
2) Super efficient miners appear. We are already at 20nm (coming soon from KNC) and so I doubt we'll see anything better than 0.5w/GH/s in 2014.
3) Electricity somehow becomes super cheap worldwide.

Otherwise, if 25TH/s was required with current BTC price and miner efficiency you would spend more money on electricity than you'd get back in BTC. Yes, there are people out there who have "free" electricity but there is nowhere near enough to support a mining network a couple of orders of magnitude larger than there is now.

[BuildTheFuture]

ASICMiner's next gen chip design (supposedly taping out any day now) has been said to target 0.20 W/GH/s. That may be in some kind of "slow" mode that people may not actually use at first, but at any rate such hardware could possibly become available a few months from now.

[-ck]

Eleventy billion

[Zeal0t]

As fun as it is to predict this, I don't see how anyone could possibly do so accurately. 

[alpher]

Woohoo: http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/a/d4d6067898

150 GH.

[Korbman]

Woohoo: http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/a/d4d6067898

150 GH.

You had it set for 150TH/s, not GH. And it's also assuming a consistent growth of 78%, which is incredibly unlikely.

[zimmah]

I think somewhere between 40 and 100 TH

[daynnite]

5TH max i think

[sharedminers]

I think Difficulty will be around 15B by then, which means that you'll need a 5 TH/s miner to make 1 btc per month.

[_Miracle]

Eleventy billion

One meeeeeeeeellllliiiiooonnnn TH......

Both of those made me laugh even though it really feels like that today

[nezarkadhem]

I think Difficulty will be around 15B by then, which means that you'll need a 5 TH/s miner to make 1 btc per month.

You guys are dreaming. Look at the warehouses of rigs and ASICs currently under construction. Anyone with under 50THs will be pushed out the game.

[iamborg1of1]

Hi Im running at 4.5 TH/s and through Btc guild I earn about 1.5 BTC a month
Hope this helps

[rm1023]

Hi Im running at 4.5 TH/s and through Btc guild I earn about 1.5 BTC a month
Hope this helps

Thanks for the confirmation.  I saw the post and was wondering how it would turn out.

[mavericklm]

2.9146th/s atm

[Korbman]

It's certainly interesting to revisit this a year later, especially to see how completely wrong the majority of us were. It seems I was off by a factor of ~9.

2.9146th/s atm

Close. 

With an average difficulty this month of around 42.5 billion (averaging past, current, and predicted difficulties), and with January having 2,678,400 seconds, the hashrate necessary to generate BTC1.0 is 2.726047 TH/s (ignoring pool variance).

[Rum152]

It's certainly interesting to revisit this a year later, especially to see how completely wrong the majority of us were. It seems I was off by a factor of ~9.

2.9146th/s atm

Close. 

With an average difficulty this month of around 42.5 billion (averaging past, current, and predicted difficulties), and with January having 2,678,400 seconds, the hashrate necessary to generate BTC1.0 is 2.726047 TH/s (ignoring pool variance).

Very interesting. Back when this thread was created having even only 1 TH would have made you 20 BTC in a month (before taking into consideration electric costs). Machines at that efficiency were selling for thousands of dollars. People were making money by buying up preorders, never mining with them and reselling them at huge markups

[samsonn25]

Useless unless electricity is less than .07 and 3% diff jumps.  

But can use as space heater in cold times

[BTCish]

Does really Jupiter is so useless right now ?

[crazyearner]

I voted 50TH simply because right now you need that to make around 1BTC per day or more and with ever growing diff spikes and more bigger units and corporate company's  driving the diff up am sure it will be at that point needing 50TH to even make 1BTC a month sometime this year. Making 1BTC a month is worthless with market prices where they are at now and the amount of energy used to mine 1BTC in a month.

You might as well go mine BURSTCOIN with your hard drive and if you have about 100TB you will make over 1BTC per month might take a fair wack to go grab 100TB that is 20x4TB hard drives and can simply build up bit by bit would cost the same of a 2TH or 3TH unit and you have yourself plenty of storage left over and can sell the hard drives on after if not needing for anything else after when the coin diff gets too much. Right now I have about 10TB making 58,241 Burst per month or their about the equivalent to  0.116 BTC so having 100TB will yield 1.16BTC per month. And with the way it is progressing the prices are gradually increasing to because it is one of a kind crypto compared to all the other alts going out their.

BTC and asic mining is over unless you got some serious TH or soon to be PH mining power and free energy to run.

[ChuckBuck]

It's crazy to think it costs roughly 3 Bitmain Antminer S5's to generate 1 BTC a month.  Each S5 costs 1.5 BTC, so about 4.5 BTC just to mine back 1 BTC in one month, not even factoring electrical costs, should tell you all you need to know right now about the state of mining.

Man, do I wish I had a Hot Tub Time Machine so I could mine with CPU's....

[alh]

It's crazy to think it costs roughly 3 Bitmain Antminer S5's to generate 1 BTC a month.  Each S5 costs 1.5 BTC, so about 4.5 BTC just to mine back 1 BTC in one month, not even factoring electrical costs, should tell you all you need to know right now about the state of mining.

Man, do I wish I had a Hot Tub Time Machine so I could mine with CPU's....

It's actually a little worse than that since each Antminer S5 needs a power supply. Many folks already have those, but many do not. I'll bet PSU's would add almost another BTC to the cost (for the three S5's).

[philipma1957]

I voted 50TH simply because right now you need that to make around 1BTC per day or more and with ever growing diff spikes and more bigger units and corporate company's  driving the diff up am sure it will be at that point needing 50TH to even make 1BTC a month sometime this year. Making 1BTC a month is worthless with market prices where they are at now and the amount of energy used to mine 1BTC in a month.

You might as well go mine BURSTCOIN with your hard drive and if you have about 100TB you will make over 1BTC per month might take a fair wack to go grab 100TB that is 20x4TB hard drives and can simply build up bit by bit would cost the same of a 2TH or 3TH unit and you have yourself plenty of storage left over and can sell the hard drives on after if not needing for anything else after when the coin diff gets too much. Right now I have about 10TB making 58,241 Burst per month or their about the equivalent to  0.116 BTC so having 100TB will yield 1.16BTC per month. And with the way it is progressing the prices are gradually increasing to because it is one of a kind crypto compared to all the other alts going out their.

BTC and asic mining is over unless you got some serious TH or soon to be PH mining power and free energy to run.

I have a question about burst coin.

 I have lots of hdds say 24tb easy more like 30tb.  I could set up a  mac with them.  does burst work with mac?

[philipma1957]

Does really Jupiter is so useless right now ?

yes since an s-3 does 450-500gh for 350-400 watts. 

So if you have a need for space heating  s-3's are a far better choice.

[jermwerty]

This was a great poll!  Interesting how we ended up on the "low" end of the scale for possibilities!

If BTC was $5K per coin those higher values would have some merit.

But since we are under $300 power draw/efficiency matters more.

Compared to a year ago:

Avalons are long obsolete @ 10W/GH
S1s which were BRAND NEW a year ago @ 2W/GH are not profitable now for most people.

Only the newest stuff that draws about a half-watt per GH can hope to be profitable with cheap power.