Where I placed my bets on short-term bitcoin price.

[Edward50]

I think once you saw the poster you probably knew where I placed my bets  . This is a serious post and just letting you guys know how I placed my bets and why. I am not trying to tell you how to place your bets or trying to make you guys sell or anything like that, so no flaming me please.

Anyway, I sold out around 7 bitcoins, or mostly all the bitcoins I could easily transfer to the exchange. I started before this last recent rally by selling half at $820. Didn't expect this recent rally, but sold the rest some hours ago for $840 after this rally failed. These are campbx prices and not MTgox so they are a lot lower, like $100 lower.

Bitcoin can go either way as there is nothing certain anymore but here is why I decided to place my bets for it going lower.

First, you should understand that only big speculators really control the price. They use their wealth to push the market where they want, then they hope you guys pick up the slack and they profit from that.

They tried twice to push bitcoin to over $1000 dollars and both times have failed to start any rally higher. Volume got super low and the demand for expensive bitcoins is just not there. This was unlike the situation with the first push to $1000 which had lots of mania and super high volume.

Since they probably spent a lot of money twice trying to push the market higher and failed, they will pull back and let the price slide back down. This way they can at least buy at say $400 and then try and push it up to $1000 again and sell at $1000.

Well, these are my thoughts anyway. I could be wrong as it could go either way and wouldn't be surprised either if it went up. But I feel more certain that it just has to go lower from here so that the big market players can make some money again. I sold half after the first push to $1000 failed, and sold the rest today.

[1714908470]

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[1714908470]

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[BitcoinBobbeh]

Way to cite sources bro.

Manipulation is so 2011.

Really I think we are just levelling out from the last bubble. The corrections are getting smaller, and a slow, positive growth has resulted from greater levels of adoption. Whales are fewer and further between and I believe they have less influence than ever before. The big news, both good and bad (Overstock vs. China) has little to do with the price atm. Until Overstock accepts BTC on a global level, or China bans it outright, they will not have that great of an influence on the price.

On Christmas day, BTC hit $750 on Coinbase, and that was considered a nice uptick.

Last week it was flirting with $900, same thing.

Bitcoin is in a relatively steady period of growth and no news out of Bumfuckistan is going to change it unless it truly affects the globe.

[kromer]

$400... Keep dreaming

[piramida]

I placed my bets at $7, because the price was there just a year and a half ago and since then we can see there is no volume, so the speculative price won't hold much longer and there is no more demand; people are only selling and nobody bought a single bitcoin since 2013.

This price is a guess but I'm 100% positive I will buy at that level, maybe $7.30 maximum.

[byronbb]

Agree in principle with op. Bitcoin can go way down. 1k has been rejected a number of times now. Loaded mention that there are two groups painting ta signals.

[piramida]

In truth, I think this is exactly the post-April situation now, only with 1000 instead of 150. No, we are not going to 400. we'll sit in 600-1000 range for a month or several, and then break through to the next moon.

[skivrmt]

In truth, I think this is exactly the post-April situation now, only with 1000 instead of 150. No, we are not going to 400. we'll sit in 600-1000 range for a month or several, and then break through to the next moon.

It might be even a tighter range than that.  We've established, over the last month, a nice tight range, relative to Bitcoins historical volatility and price movements.  We have built up resistance and support bands that could limit the price movement in either direction until we receive some good or bad news.

[proudhon]

I think once you saw the poster you probably knew where I placed my bets  . This is a serious post and just letting you guys know how I placed my bets and why. I am not trying to tell you how to place your bets or trying to make you guys sell or anything like that, so no flaming me please.

Anyway, I sold out around 7 bitcoins, or mostly all the bitcoins I could easily transfer to the exchange. I started before this last recent rally by selling half at $820. Didn't expect this recent rally, but sold the rest some hours ago for $840 after this rally failed. These are campbx prices and not MTgox so they are a lot lower, like $100 lower.

Bitcoin can go either way as there is nothing certain anymore but here is why I decided to place my bets for it going lower.

First, you should understand that only big speculators really control the price. They use their wealth to push the market where they want, then they hope you guys pick up the slack and they profit from that.

They tried twice to push bitcoin to over $1000 dollars and both times have failed to start any rally higher. Volume got super low and the demand for expensive bitcoins is just not there. This was unlike the situation with the first push to $1000 which had lots of mania and super high volume.

Since they probably spent a lot of money twice trying to push the market higher and failed, they will pull back and let the price slide back down. This way they can at least buy at say $400 and then try and push it up to $1000 again and sell at $1000.

Well, these are my thoughts anyway. I could be wrong as it could go either way and wouldn't be surprised either if it went up. But I feel more certain that it just has to go lower from here so that the big market players can make some money again. I sold half after the first push to $1000 failed, and sold the rest today.

Mmmmmm, I've analysed your analysis and I think you're being a bit too bullish here, Edward.  I think we can safely assume that anyone with big money has already internalized all of the confirmed bad news from sources and such, and without their support my backtesting shows that the conservative bearish case has the price leveling off around $100 for a while before bitcoin fully implodes later this year, or perhaps early next year, depending on a few factors.

Whether your bullish case is correct, or my conservative bearish case is, or my more likely aggressive panda bear case, it's clear at this point that everyone should SODL and not HODL, and if you can, short bitcoin at the highest margin levels possible.

[aminorex]

if you can, short bitcoin at the highest margin levels possible.

That is so marvelously evil that I am marveling now.  Marvel marvel.

[ElectricMucus]

Proudhon I liked you better back then.

[proudhon]

Proudhon I liked you better back then.

Back when?

[N12]

Back when we really were afraid that there was a good chance it was all going down the drain.

[proudhon]

Back when we really were afraid that there was a good chance it was all going down the drain.

Yeah, Oct/Nov 2011 probably took a few years off my life.  I just got IRC flashbacks.  Jesus, 2011, what a ride.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Back when we really were afraid that there was a good chance it was all going down the drain.

Yeah, Oct/Nov 2011 probably took a few years off my life.  I just got IRC flashbacks.  Jesus, 2011, what a ride.

I spent some good time today looking back through your last 2-3 pages of posts.

You are all kinds of FUD up.

(♫ Wah Wah Pun Sound ♪)

[N12]

I remember when the final lower trendline broke to the downside. You literally couldn't draw a valid long-term support trendline either on log or nominal charts.



Hell has come upon us, and I am thankful it has come so early in my career.

[Dafar]

In truth, I think this is exactly the post-April situation now, only with 1000 instead of 150. No, we are not going to 400. we'll sit in 600-1000 range for a month or several, and then break through to the next moon.

This.


I had a strong feeling of this last month and even called it.... this sideways motion is boring as hell and I have a feeling this will last for months.

[gentlemand]

Well, it can't always be exploding or plunging prices. Perhaps boring periods maybe send Bitcoin fans off to work on interesting projects.

Perhaps overwhelming price dullness will inspire people to invest in whatever infrastructure they can as well. That's where major and ongoing returns will come from. That's what I'd be doing if I had the chance.

A price rise of 2013 proportions seems ludicrous from this moment in time but I think the ongoing developments and news will be about as far from boring as possible.

[Dafar]

A price rise of 2013 proportions seems ludicrous from this moment in time but I think the ongoing developments and news will be about as far from boring as possible.

I agree but I also think that's what made 2013 the year of bitcoin.... as opposed to 2014.

[gentlemand]

The whole price thing has been pretty darned compelling so far but I wouldn't be here if the overall tale wasn't so incredibly fascinating.

From fraction of a penny to $1200 a piece is entirely achievable with enthusiast funds. To get to some of the stratospheric valuations being thrown around will need big finance and some sort of government involvement.

It's looking like that's what 2014 is going to clarify, whether we want it or not, and that's maybe why it'll be the year of all years to date. It's a humongous and potentially fatal chasm to attempt to bridge and we're here to watch it unfold.