Do u think BTC mining difficulty in Apr will be around 18,048,808,968

[athatisme2]

I just looking the KNC miner 3.3T, the delivery date is around Q2 of 2014, uumm i'm thinking about is it worth to buy it. But try base on the trend of BTC difficulty, 10 or 12 days and around 26% change, my result is 18,048,808,968 around 23/4 if KNC delay....

i pasted the value http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty , that really make me depressed that i can only earn 0.09 BTC per day ....      hopefully the value of BTC will be higher and higher~~
Am I wrong with it ?

Date         Difficulty      Change 23/4/2014      18,048,808,968   26.00%   (my personal predict only) 13/4/2014           14,324,451,562   26.00% 3/4/2014           11,368,612,351   26.00% 24/3/2014           9,022,708,215   26.00% 14/3/2014           7,160,879,536   26.00% 4/3/2014           5,683,237,727   26.00% 22/2/2014     4,510,506,132   26.00% 12/2/2014      3,579,766,772   26.00% 2/2/2014      2,841,084,739   26.00% 23/1/2014    2,254,829,158   26.00% 13/1/2014    1,789,546,951   26.16% 2/1/2014      1,418,481,395   20.12% 21/12/2013   1,180,923,195   30.01% 10/12/2013   908,350,862   28.41% 29/11/2013   707,408,283   16.07%

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[philipma1957]

well sooner or later growth will slow. 26%  a jump will be possible for only so long.

[Entropy-uc]

I think you are on track.

The long delays between hardware orders and delivery mean that difficulty will shoot far past the level where a rational person would not decide to invest in mining hardware.  Buying mining gear now is essentially a bet that BTC will be far more valuable in the future.

The trouble is buying BTC is the same bet, and you can probably get more BTC today for your dollars than buying mining gear will ever yield.

[frankenmint]

more like

29%
3%
10%
2%
30%
5%


No such thing as linear difficulty jumps in exponential terms.  If this happens so much that many many people are deterred to btc mining, they excess hashpower will now fill up the alt chain sha algorithms, particularly if the coin is poised to be profitable, such as UNO or BETA (reference to December when BTC was in the middle of the coinwarz list)

[dbell]

My calculations tell me that even the best mining hardware deals out there are negative to marginal in terms of BTC return right now.   I feel fortunate to have gotten in on of the earlier rounds of the Antminer.  I don't even think that the current purchase of an Antminer will ROI on BTC at the current price, current and increasing difficulty and the price of electricity. 

I expect the shops in China to keep building new hardware right now and either using it themselves or selling it.  I expect Black Arrow and Cointerra to deliver and others eventually as well and thus the flood of hashing power to continue with no slow down in hash rate growth.  I expect this will be followed by secondary developers (China) using the 28nm ASIC chips and the flood of hash power to continue.  Price of "immediate delivery" hardware to the "gentleman miner" will just follow its marginal ROI value as it has been.

So I think you need to be early and lucky as a buyer of finished hardware.

At this point the mining hardware developers are the ones making money mining with their own hardware and then selling it at prices that are marginal to negative in terms of ROI.    If you are smart enough to build your own boards you might be able to get a decent ROI by building your own.  If you are smart enough to design an ASIC, you can make lots of mining money.

If you are depending on the price of BTC to go so that you can get ROI, then you are better off just buying Bitcoin directly.  Less risk.... but less interesting too.

[brontosaurus]

The real answer is that no one knows what will happen. 18000 million is probably a bit high, anyone seriously mining just know knows that a ton of new kit is going to get dumped on the network starting mid February when all the chip orders from November start to come through to production. 1800 million would very roughly equate to a total network hashng power of 130,000 TH; from the present 14,000 TH that's adding 116,000 TH, or nearly 60 THOUSAND 2TH rigs. None of the current or 'pending' suppliers have production capabilities for units of this size and complexity anywhere near 1000 a week at present, and it would take them quite some time to get up the learning curve. The 'hidden' mining companies are another matter altogether, but I'll bet even they can't turn on instant capacity via their subcontractors.

So buyers will tread carefully unless they get offered a stellar deal - or the value of BTC jumps again which will start a whole new cycle.

But I'd also advise anyone thinking of buying to consider this - if you were an existing miner earning good money on your existing setup, would you want to encourage new entrants who will push the difficulty up? So be careful of what you read, there are hidden agendas!

[rext]

if Bitcoin worths about 3k then, probably it will still be fine.

[U1TRA_L0RD]

Then the KNC Neptunes and Cointerra Miners will be making less and wont make any ROI.