Maddin (OP)
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January 15, 2014, 12:11:05 PM |
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Hi guys,
no I'm not another newbie whos thinking to get rich by mining. I know that mining is not profitable at all due to rising difficulty caused by "mining-noobs", losing a lot of their money.
In fact I think theres acutally blowing up some kind of mining bubble. When people realise they make no profit and sell all there mining hardware the bubble could explode and rise the btc prise down. But thats just a theory.
I'm writing a bachelor thesis about bitcoin and in one chapter I will analyze if its possible to make a profit by mining. Also I want to calculate how much it costs to mine one singe BTC (power costs + proportional hardwarecostes). Therefore I will make the assumption that only the most efficient (hash per watt) mining hardware is used.
So what is the most efficient hardware available at the moment? It's important that it has been already delivered to some people. I don't want to calculate with one of those preorder hardware minng, which may never arrive.
Thanks for helping me out.
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samcornwell
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January 15, 2014, 03:24:49 PM Last edit: January 26, 2014, 01:23:28 AM by MiningBuddy |
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Hi, A direct answer to your question would be a stolen one using somebody else's power. $:MH/s ratio would be infinite and running costs would be nil. Any bitcoins mined would be profit. An answer you're probably looking for though is the KNC Neptune.It's also worth bearing in mind that Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency you can mine. There are many others, and more importantly, many others that can use the same hardware to mine. These smaller crypto-currencies, along with the benefit of easy to use exchanges may pose opportunities to the small fish. Good luck on your thesis. Rather you than me.
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raskul
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January 16, 2014, 12:14:17 PM |
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i've a small stack of garden blades (8gh-10gh per blade) they run around 80-90w per blade. old tech but decent.
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tips 1APp826DqjJBdsAeqpEstx6Q8hD4urac8a
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Hashcesar84
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January 16, 2014, 02:28:42 PM |
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Hi, A direct answer to your question would be a stolen one using somebody else's power. $:MH/s ratio would be infinite and running costs would be nil. Any bitcoins mined would be profit. An answer you're probably looking for though is the KNC Neptune.It's also worth bearing in mind that Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency you can mine. There are many others, and more importantly, many others that can use the same hardware to mine. These smaller crypto-currencies, along with the benefit of easy to use exchanges may pose opportunities to the small fish. Good luck on your thesis. Rather you than me. knc neptune in terms of $:GH/s is less advantageous than terraminer iv but both have shipping very late.
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bcpokey
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January 17, 2014, 08:48:09 PM |
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Hi guys,
no I'm not another newbie whos thinking to get rich by mining. I know that mining is not profitable at all due to rising difficulty caused by "mining-noobs", losing a lot of their money.
In fact I think theres acutally blowing up some kind of mining bubble. When people realise they make no profit and sell all there mining hardware the bubble could explode and rise the btc prise down. But thats just a theory.
I'm writing a bachelor thesis about bitcoin and in one chapter I will analyze if its possible to make a profit by mining.
A bit off topic but in the vein of academic integrity, since this is for a thesis. You "know" mining is not profitable but you haven't analyzed profitability yet, and want people to give you lead ins to do so. It's one thing to hypothesize it will not be profitable, but fore knowledge is dangerous.
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2tights
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January 17, 2014, 08:58:34 PM |
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the word is that the KNC Neptune is the nuts, but we're still preflop so everything can change once the board is revealed.
As others have mentioned in prior responses, you aren't restricted to only Bitcoin on ASIC SHA256 chips/rigs.... If you have the time, patience and a little smarts you can do as many are right now: find a sha256 coin that you've found to be profitable with your hardware, then trade up to bitcoin, and speculate, HODL, or keep flipping. There are a multitude of recipes that may be profitable... many many variables to account for. Lots of reading.
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libitum
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January 19, 2014, 01:17:01 AM |
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For anyone to be able to answer your question, he should have every ASIC so that he can compare which one is the most efficient. You probably should rephrase your question, asking to anyone who has an ASIC miner, what is the Hash/Watts they are getting at the wall.
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Reviews of Bitcoin Miners. $500 Rebate KNC Neptune Miner (http://www.libtium.com/?page_id=88/)
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TookDk
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One coin to rule them all
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January 19, 2014, 01:38:21 AM |
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I know that mining is not profitable at all due to rising difficulty caused by "mining-noobs", losing a lot of their money.
I agree that the margin for profit is small, but not profitable is not true. Most miners has experienced both loss and gains, but that is properly not much different that any other business. The reward for mining is self-adjusting, as long as there is a block reward to compete on, then will there be miners to race for the reward. If the block reward exceed the cost in electricity and roi is impossible then will some miners (with lower hashrate = lower probability to find the block) shut down, and then will the difficulty go down, and then will roi be possible for others. The system will self-adjust to a level where there is a profit for the miners. Even when all 21 mil BTC has been mined will there still be competition to claim the tx-fee's in the block. The system (bitcoin) is on a ramp-up right now, so it is very difficult to make any scientific conclusions based the current situation, I believe a more holistic approach is needed.
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Cryptography is one of the few things you can truly trust.
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Maddin (OP)
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January 25, 2014, 01:22:41 PM |
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I know that mining is not profitable at all due to rising difficulty caused by "mining-noobs", losing a lot of their money.
If the block reward exceed the cost in electricity and roi is impossible then will some miners (with lower hashrate = lower probability to find the block) shut down, and then will the difficulty go down, and then will roi be possible for others. The system will self-adjust to a level where there is a profit for the miners. You won't see this happen in the next few years. Because most miners dont think rational like that. They think like: Bitcoin is going to rise in value, so it makes sense to mine. But they don't see that their revenue would be significantly higher by a direct investment in btc.
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TookDk
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One coin to rule them all
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January 25, 2014, 01:45:52 PM |
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I know that mining is not profitable at all due to rising difficulty caused by "mining-noobs", losing a lot of their money.
If the block reward exceed the cost in electricity and roi is impossible then will some miners (with lower hashrate = lower probability to find the block) shut down, and then will the difficulty go down, and then will roi be possible for others. The system will self-adjust to a level where there is a profit for the miners. You won't see this happen in the next few years. Because most miners dont think rational like that. They think like: Bitcoin is going to rise in value, so it makes sense to mine. But they don't see that their revenue would be significantly higher by a direct investment in btc. I think you are underestimating the intelligence levels of miners... Sure you can find single cases that support your statement, but the majority of the network is commercial now.
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Cryptography is one of the few things you can truly trust.
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Sonny
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January 26, 2014, 05:39:34 AM |
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I know that mining is not profitable at all due to rising difficulty caused by "mining-noobs", losing a lot of their money.
If the block reward exceed the cost in electricity and roi is impossible then will some miners (with lower hashrate = lower probability to find the block) shut down, and then will the difficulty go down, and then will roi be possible for others. The system will self-adjust to a level where there is a profit for the miners. You won't see this happen in the next few years. Because most miners dont think rational like that. They think like: Bitcoin is going to rise in value, so it makes sense to mine. But they don't see that their revenue would be significantly higher by a direct investment in btc. I think you are underestimating the intelligence levels of miners... Sure you can find single cases that support your statement, but the majority of the network is commercial now. I am sure there are irrational miners out there, but I don't most miners are irrational. However, I am quite sure it is not just a few single cases. For example, if you take a look at cex.io, you will find people buying 1 GH/s mining contract for 0.043+ btc. And, the GH/s price is pretty stable even after the difficulty readjustment.
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raskul
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January 26, 2014, 09:43:39 AM |
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if you take a look at cex.io, you will find people buying 1 GH/s mining contract for 0.043+ btc.
most irrational.
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tips 1APp826DqjJBdsAeqpEstx6Q8hD4urac8a
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Sonny
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January 26, 2014, 10:34:32 AM |
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if you take a look at cex.io, you will find people buying 1 GH/s mining contract for 0.043+ btc.
most irrational. Ironically, cex.io has a built-in calculator showing that people will never get their investment back (not even close), but it seems no one cares about it.
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SellStuff
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January 26, 2014, 01:17:44 PM |
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In fact I think theres acutally blowing up some kind of mining bubble. When people realise they make no profit and sell all there mining hardware the bubble could explode and rise the btc prise down. But thats just a theory.
I'm writing a bachelor thesis about bitcoin and in one chapter I will analyze if its possible to make a profit by mining.
Writing a theory on rising prices down sounds like an interesting task, I must say. Maybe you should do some more reading.
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davepsilon
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January 26, 2014, 05:51:54 PM |
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I'm interested in how this chapter will fit in - what is the real thesis topic? In any case for the chapter you should consider doing a review of bitcoin mining profitability in the past since it greatly influenced the current state of the bitcoin economy - especially since it widely distributed coins to those that were willing to turn their cpu and then later gpu cycles to it. You could discuss the current state where it requires dedicated ASIC (application-specific integrated circuits) to have profitability and the hardware that is profitable generally requires a pre-order gamble to acquire in a timely manner. Then I suggest you turn an eye towards the future. The total computational power of the network has grown exponentially - fueled in my opinion somewhat by increased bitcoin value and somewhat by technology that is more efficient - can this continue for the long term? While moore's law has stunned some by holding true with exponential growth in computing power over more than 40 years - the limited pool of resources for bitcoin (the remaining coins to be minted + transaction fees) will likely mean mining power growth will likely become linear and logarithmic after a time. But you certainly shouldn't try to predict that timeframe too accurately - the error bars are probably measured in tens of months. Not to mention the exit of the home miner - soon typical household electric circuits will be sufficient to host the required juice to keep relevant miners powered. You could look at the cost of such a large bitcoin computation network. Both the social cost in current electric consumption which has some environmental implications and in terms of how much investment at current prices would be required to increase difficulty. If everyone adding computation to the network is paying the pre-order retail price of $3 per GH/s how much capital was spent acquiring minng hardware last month? Is that sustainable? Lots of great avenues for topics, I hope you've carved out a good one. I also encourage you to use analogies to relate the at times tediously technical details of bitcoin operation. Things like What is difficulty? What is one bitcoin? Why is it secure? Analogy is a technique often leaned upon by the great physicists to translate the technical into the everyday - think http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat
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davepsilon
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January 26, 2014, 06:00:33 PM |
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As for your question on what hardware cost to use - naturally hardware that can be purchased right now isn't such a great deal (or everyone would purchase it until it wasn't available). The recent bitmain usb chips are priced at $50 for 2 GH/s (overclocked) and cooling would need to be applied and the bitmain S1 is $1700 for 180 GH/s
I don't think using those prices ($10/GH + electricty) are fair for your analysis. You can find cheaper options with a high chance of delivery if you are willing to wait until April / May - but no one knows what difficulty will be then. If you were going to buy mining equipment today I think you'd need to get in line on one of this and gamble on the difficulty or continually monitor for the next generation (more efficient) pre-order and again gamble.
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