Why is the pool payout so much lower than expected?

[zmhaha]

I am having 3.484Mh/s on cgminer and cgminer rejected is roughly 1%-2%.
I understand pools can only calculate your h/s based on the VALID share you submitted. My invalid share usually are 1%. And so most of the time my pool reported h/s are very close to my cgminer with the rejected adjustment.

For example, most of the time I get a 3.4Mh/s pool reported hash speed on a Doge pool. The pool has about 3Gh/s while the whole network has 30Gh/s, so I'd say the pool should get blocks found regularly. However, based on my 3.4Mh/s pool hash rate, I should be getting nearly 69k Doge/day(I guess this estimation does not take orphans into account, so actual payout should be a bit of lower due to orphans).
And the difficulty has not been changing too much lately so I may assume the current difficulty should be an close estimate of the average difficulty during a day but give it a +-5% payouts for adjusting the difficulty estimation error.
But even after discarding the orphan block coins, I should still get at least 60k/day.
But in reality, I am getting 50k/day.

So is the pool cheating? Or am I missing something.

Also there are many times the cgminer reporting my pool detects a block, however the pool round still keep going even after 2-3 mins of that. So what is going on?

[MineNerd]

The luck of the pool that you are mining at will cause some variance. Also the block reward on DOGE isn't static, it varies each block from 1-1,000,000 per block found, so that will cause the numbers to be skewed.

[Vivisector999]

Yeah, DOGE has to be the worst coin to get an estimated payout since the reward keeps changing.  It's not a solid reward like almost every coin out there. 

But if you are questioning your pool, then the best/easiest thing to do is try another pool, and see if your results are better, or the same, or even worse.  Then you will know if your pool is decent.  You can always go back to your old pool. 

[zmhaha]

But currently DOGE is still on the 57XXX block, which still have another 40k to go before the first reward change...

[ymer]

scamcoins have scampools.

[MineNerd]

But currently DOGE is still on the 57XXX block, which still have another 40k to go before the first reward change...

The block reward halving has nothing to do with the current block reward. Take a look at the blocks found on your pool's website. It will vary between 1-1,000,000.