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Author Topic: The Log Chart Myth  (Read 4311 times)
NothinG
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September 06, 2011, 11:54:53 PM
 #21

You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:


Using this metric it is clear the value of bitcoin has stabilised on the horizontal. BUY BUY BUY
That made my laugh harder than it should.

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mute20
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September 07, 2011, 12:12:00 AM
 #22

You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:


Using this metric it is clear the value of bitcoin has stabilised on the horizontal. BUY BUY BUY
That made my laugh harder than it should.

That caught me off guard to. Seems funnier the more I look at it.
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September 07, 2011, 12:26:56 AM
 #23

The log chart is distorted as it includes essentially irrelevant data when bitcoins were worth a few cents each.  While it's valid to include the data (it's factual) it's also irrelevant to bitcoin users today.  So what that the price now is still 1000 times higher than it was a year ago?  It doesn't change the fact that bitcoin's value is down almost 75% from its peak. 

Maybe the Japanese can use log graphs of the Nikkei Index starting from the 1970s to make themselves feel better.  They are still in a bull market today!  Roll Eyes

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September 07, 2011, 12:44:54 AM
 #24

The log chart is distorted as it includes essentially irrelevant data when bitcoins were worth a few cents each.  While it's valid to include the data (it's factual) it's also irrelevant to bitcoin users today.  So what that the price now is still 1000 times higher than it was a year ago?  It doesn't change the fact that bitcoin's value is down almost 75% from its peak. 
Does this one make you happier?
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September 07, 2011, 12:46:14 AM
 #25

I find the hostility towards it very amusing and that all the naysayers come up with comparisons our the fiat money world even more so.  Grin

Since I am the one who has drawn this trend lines you deserve at least some explanation: Wink
These lines will obviously be broken at some point but when is irrelevant since you cant put a real world value on the entire potential supply of USD. Alot of emotional detachment is needed to view this trend with a rational mind.

So to make it easier for you just replace the USD with bytes of computer memory, if you think about it a little you know what I mean  Tongue

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September 07, 2011, 12:58:02 AM
 #26

I find the hostility towards it very amusing and that all the naysayers come up with comparisons our the fiat money world even more so.  Grin

Since I am the one who has drawn this trend lines you deserve at least some explanation: Wink
These lines will obviously be broken at some point but when is irrelevant since you cant put a real world value on the entire potential supply of USD. Alot of emotional detachment is needed to view this trend with a rational mind.

So to make it easier for you just replace the USD with bytes of computer memory, if you think about it a little you know what I mean  Tongue





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September 07, 2011, 01:06:41 AM
 #27

awsome you posted the same pic twice in two different threads.
Welcome to my shitlist  Grin

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September 07, 2011, 01:07:27 AM
 #28





If it's already mapped to a log scale, and it STILL looks parabolic, then you know it's probably oversold.  Silver did this earlier this year, then corrected.

Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.
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September 07, 2011, 01:08:49 AM
 #29

Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.

Unless you can buy most things with these coins, they are a bad investment.  Tulip mania.

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RandyFolds
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September 07, 2011, 01:12:39 AM
 #30

The log chart is distorted as it includes essentially irrelevant data when bitcoins were worth a few cents each.  While it's valid to include the data (it's factual) it's also irrelevant to bitcoin users today.  So what that the price now is still 1000 times higher than it was a year ago?  It doesn't change the fact that bitcoin's value is down almost 75% from its peak. 

Maybe the Japanese can use log graphs of the Nikkei Index starting from the 1970s to make themselves feel better.  They are still in a bull market today!  Roll Eyes

The log chart is distorted as it includes history? C'mon, man. That is just retarded. It's relevant to users today in as much as the current price is relevant.

Do you buy stocks by only looking at today's price? Hey, XXX is trading at $23. That seems like a pretty cool number...

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Minsc
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September 07, 2011, 01:24:55 AM
 #31

awsome you posted the same pic twice in two different threads.
Welcome to my shitlist  Grin

Hey you just proved your charts are wrong because you refuse to take criticism.

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Surawit
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September 07, 2011, 01:27:15 AM
 #32

The log chart is distorted as it includes history? C'mon, man. That is just retarded. It's relevant to users today in as much as the current price is relevant.

Do you buy stocks by only looking at today's price? Hey, XXX is trading at $23. That seems like a pretty cool number...
You are just retarded

When you look at historical data for a company... that company hasn't changed much in the last few years. Roughly the same number of employees doing the same shit.

The price of bitcoin in its infancy is irrelevant because it had a totally different userbase. It used to be a very small group of people doing it as a nerdy project. Now we have several orders of magnitude more participants, and they have markedly different motivations from the original group (!!!$$$get rich quick$$$!!!). It's a totally different market after the wave of publicity in May-June

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Minsc
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September 07, 2011, 01:28:51 AM
 #33

The price of bitcoin in its infancy is irrelevant because it had a totally different userbase. It used to be a very small group of people doing it as a nerdy project. Now we have several orders of magnitude more participants, and they have markedly different motivations from the original group (!!!$$$get rich quick$$$!!!). It's a totally different market after the wave of publicity in May-June

Yes, people making linear charts are just dead innacurate.  People need to see bitcoin frenzy this summer as like a gasoline fire.

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RandyFolds
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September 07, 2011, 02:35:50 AM
 #34

You are just retarded

When you look at historical data for a company... that company hasn't changed much in the last few years. Roughly the same number of employees doing the same shit.

The price of bitcoin in its infancy is irrelevant because it had a totally different userbase. It used to be a very small group of people doing it as a nerdy project. Now we have several orders of magnitude more participants, and they have markedly different motivations from the original group (!!!$$$get rich quick$$$!!!). It's a totally different market after the wave of publicity in May-June

But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.


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nmat
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September 07, 2011, 02:57:33 AM
 #35

Honestly, none of the graphs really work if you are in for long term predictions (since you are including 1 year of data, I assume we are talking about mid/long term). An year ago we had like 10 people with great technical knowlege. Right now, we have 1000 people and 90% only wants to profit. Next year, bitcon could be outlawed, completely dead or it could be flourishing.

There are a lot of changes in the userbase and in the environment surrounding bitcons that make it very very difficult to predict long term prices (with or without charts).
Surawit
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September 07, 2011, 03:06:23 AM
 #36

But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.
Not 'jelly' of someone who wins the lottery. Or someone who gets in on the ground floor of a pyramid scam and makes some cash. In both cases both have made some money against the odds, and can't really claim anything but blind luck. The same goes with bitcoins.

I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry

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RandyFolds
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September 07, 2011, 03:16:18 AM
 #37

But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.
Not 'jelly' of someone who wins the lottery. Or someone who gets in on the ground floor of a pyramid scam and makes some cash. In both cases both have made some money against the odds, and can't really claim anything but blind luck. The same goes with bitcoins.

I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry

So I said investor instead of adopter. I'm such an asshole for that slip in semantics.

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September 07, 2011, 03:17:33 AM
 #38

But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.
Not 'jelly' of someone who wins the lottery. Or someone who gets in on the ground floor of a pyramid scam and makes some cash. In both cases both have made some money against the odds, and can't really claim anything but blind luck. The same goes with bitcoins.

I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry

So I said investor instead of adopter. I'm such an asshole for that slip in semantics.

Yeah, fuck you, asshole!

GTFO.
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September 07, 2011, 03:23:29 AM
 #39

So I said investor instead of adopter. I'm such an asshole for that slip in semantics.
It's not semantics at all. Investors have very different motivations than adopters

This is what it looks like when a bunch of investors suddenly jump into a market
http://www.minyanville.com/assets/Image/tulipmania.jpg

Does that shape look familiar perchance?

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RandyFolds
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September 07, 2011, 03:44:31 AM
 #40

Poor choice of words then. Jesus christ...now you are definitely arguing semantics. Just keep posting that tulip graph over and over. I am sure it has some sort of point.

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