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Author Topic: The Log Chart Myth  (Read 4309 times)
Blitz­
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September 06, 2011, 06:46:15 PM
 #1

Does this really like like a healthy, historically normal correction to you?


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NothinG
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September 06, 2011, 06:54:26 PM
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I don't see why everyone has their panties in a wad.

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September 06, 2011, 06:56:12 PM
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I don't see why everyone has their panties in a wad.
Because there is a lot at stake.

Will the log chartists please stand up? Show me evidence this is a normal correction and not an exceptionally deep and long one!

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
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September 06, 2011, 06:58:27 PM
 #4

This:


http://www.bitpools.com
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September 06, 2011, 06:59:35 PM
 #5

This:



Hey Elwar, you did not start your chart at 0.000001. Why is that?
Are you trying to show some type of bias here that others who post a chart starting at .000001 do not
seem to have? ;-)
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September 06, 2011, 06:59:58 PM
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*standing*

Math major here, vouching for log chart.
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September 06, 2011, 07:01:14 PM
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This:



Hey Elwar, you did not start your chart at 0.000001. Why is that?
Are you trying to show some type of bias here that others who post a chart starting at .000001 do not
seem to have? ;-)

The random chart I found on the Internet did not start at .000001

I just wanted to feel included in the chart posting.

Tongue

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September 06, 2011, 07:12:58 PM
 #8

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.


here did that for ya:


First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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September 06, 2011, 07:27:30 PM
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I scrolled to the end of that huge picture in hope there was a funny ending to it.


There wasn't.   Sad
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September 06, 2011, 07:36:31 PM
 #10

I scrolled to the end of that huge picture in hope there was a funny ending to it.


There wasn't.   Sad
k fixed

Sorry not very creative  Undecided

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September 06, 2011, 07:42:26 PM
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Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
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September 06, 2011, 07:44:02 PM
 #12

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   Tongue

But you might be on to something here  Wink

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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September 06, 2011, 08:02:18 PM
 #13

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   Tongue

But you might be on to something here  Wink
Oh.  If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.  Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.
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September 06, 2011, 08:08:15 PM
 #14

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   Tongue

But you might be on to something here  Wink
Oh.  If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.  Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.

thanks, I've already looked it up, pretty interesting.

But we have a problem: Scaling the function to the actual data would be quite a demanding task, and would require skillfull programming instead of naive curve drawing by hand  Grin

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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September 06, 2011, 08:40:39 PM
 #15

are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up
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September 06, 2011, 08:42:07 PM
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are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up

Welcome to Bitcoin.

Please purchase your tokens now.
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September 06, 2011, 08:43:04 PM
 #17

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   Tongue

But you might be on to something here  Wink
Oh.  If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.  Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.

thanks, I've already looked it up, pretty interesting.

But we have a problem: Scaling the function to the actual data would be quite a demanding task, and would require skillfull programming instead of naive curve drawing by hand  Grin
lol

Plus, I think you'd want to use the linear scaling when fitting the logistic function.  Would be a pretty bad fit, then Smiley
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September 06, 2011, 08:49:00 PM
 #18

are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up
Mostly just having fun with some math.

I wouldn't place much confidence in the predictive power of this model.  Too many significant hurdles yet to be overcome to say it's just a simple matter of spreading the word.
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September 06, 2011, 11:38:42 PM
 #19


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September 06, 2011, 11:51:39 PM
 #20

You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:

http://i.imgur.com/qqtEf.png

Using this metric it is clear the value of bitcoin has stabilised on the horizontal. BUY BUY BUY

PROUD TO BE A SUPPORTER OF CAPITALISM
15rBQe46XjCzSYbQN9dWYwaSLRqiXckSDb
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