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Author Topic: The Log Chart Myth  (Read 4668 times)
Nekrobios
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September 06, 2011, 06:46:15 PM
 #1

Does this really like like a healthy, historically normal correction to you?

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NothinG
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September 06, 2011, 06:54:26 PM
 #2

I don't see why everyone has their panties in a wad.

Nekrobios
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September 06, 2011, 06:56:12 PM
 #3

I don't see why everyone has their panties in a wad.
Because there is a lot at stake.

Will the log chartists please stand up? Show me evidence this is a normal correction and not an exceptionally deep and long one!
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September 06, 2011, 06:58:27 PM
 #4

This:


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September 06, 2011, 06:59:35 PM
 #5

This:



Hey Elwar, you did not start your chart at 0.000001. Why is that?
Are you trying to show some type of bias here that others who post a chart starting at .000001 do not
seem to have? ;-)
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September 06, 2011, 06:59:58 PM
 #6

*standing*

Math major here, vouching for log chart.
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September 06, 2011, 07:01:14 PM
 #7

This:



Hey Elwar, you did not start your chart at 0.000001. Why is that?
Are you trying to show some type of bias here that others who post a chart starting at .000001 do not
seem to have? ;-)

The random chart I found on the Internet did not start at .000001

I just wanted to feel included in the chart posting.

Tongue

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ElectricMucus
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September 06, 2011, 07:12:58 PM
 #8

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.


here did that for ya:

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September 06, 2011, 07:27:30 PM
 #9

I scrolled to the end of that huge picture in hope there was a funny ending to it.


There wasn't.   Sad
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September 06, 2011, 07:36:31 PM
 #10

I scrolled to the end of that huge picture in hope there was a funny ending to it.


There wasn't.   Sad
k fixed

Sorry not very creative  Undecided
d'aniel
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September 06, 2011, 07:42:26 PM
 #11

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
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September 06, 2011, 07:44:02 PM
 #12

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   Tongue

But you might be on to something here  Wink
d'aniel
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September 06, 2011, 08:02:18 PM
 #13

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   Tongue

But you might be on to something here  Wink
Oh.  If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.  Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.
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September 06, 2011, 08:08:15 PM
 #14

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   Tongue

But you might be on to something here  Wink
Oh.  If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.  Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.

thanks, I've already looked it up, pretty interesting.

But we have a problem: Scaling the function to the actual data would be quite a demanding task, and would require skillfull programming instead of naive curve drawing by hand  Grin
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September 06, 2011, 08:40:39 PM
 #15

are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up
Synaptic
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September 06, 2011, 08:42:07 PM
 #16

are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up

Welcome to Bitcoin.

Please purchase your tokens now.
d'aniel
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September 06, 2011, 08:43:04 PM
 #17

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   Tongue

But you might be on to something here  Wink
Oh.  If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.  Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.

thanks, I've already looked it up, pretty interesting.

But we have a problem: Scaling the function to the actual data would be quite a demanding task, and would require skillfull programming instead of naive curve drawing by hand  Grin
lol

Plus, I think you'd want to use the linear scaling when fitting the logistic function.  Would be a pretty bad fit, then Smiley
d'aniel
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September 06, 2011, 08:49:00 PM
 #18

are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up
Mostly just having fun with some math.

I wouldn't place much confidence in the predictive power of this model.  Too many significant hurdles yet to be overcome to say it's just a simple matter of spreading the word.
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September 06, 2011, 11:38:42 PM
 #19


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September 06, 2011, 11:51:39 PM
 #20

You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:

http://i.imgur.com/qqtEf.png

Using this metric it is clear the value of bitcoin has stabilised on the horizontal. BUY BUY BUY

PROUD TO BE A SUPPORTER OF CAPITALISM
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