Hello all,
Firstly, this is not a loan-seeking thread. It's kind of a preamble to one, possibly. I'd like the forum's opinion on this though, since there seem to be alot of very savvy operators in this part of the bitcointalk site.
So, I have a plan (don't we all
), and it's as follows:
- I want to mine scrypt coins
- I want to be conservative wrt to solidity - i.e. I am not panning to switch to the newest crapcoin every 5 minutes
-- Factors here include Premine (not above 1%), presence on an exchange, availability of source, reputation of coin-maker (hard to determine I know), and a number of other factors, many social (i.e. what does the community think - sieved of the more obvious morons), and marketing (how is the maker getting his coin out to the world?)
- I have a long term plan which involves a split (TBC) of:
-- 40% cashout to BTC
-- 25% build stock of strong coins
-- 35% towards ROI -this includes payback of loans AND resell/upgrade factors
(both of above assume I am mining at full capacity at start, see next point)
- I wish to reach a hashrate of 10 MHash in the short term so that I can take advantage before FPGA/ASIC miners
Hopefully I am making sense so far
With all of that in mind, what I am basically trying to do is put together both a business plan and a portfolio. Portfolio towards the likely long-term bets with a solid backing of BTC (large % cashout to BTC, keeping a reasonable stock of the other strong cryptos).
My options at the moment are as follows:
(Plan 1):
- Invest this month in a 1Ghash scrypt rig, play for a month, and reinvest all + a little more disposable in 2Ghash more
- Keep up this cycle til I can get to my 10 Mhash target.
- This will likely take me 4 months without putting anything aside
- By then, I am very afraid that I will be unprofitable due to FPGA or ASIC miners on the market for scrypt.
(Plan 2):
- Borrow 8 BTC now
- Invest this immediately into rigs which will mine 24/7 from the get go at 10Mhash (Scypt, not SHA256)
- Operate on the numbers:
-- Income roughly 0.125 BTC per day atm, if difficulty goes up at current rate per month, then 0.1 BTC per day in 3 mos
-- This would total 3.75 BTC pm at BEST, 3 (let's take away 33% for unforseen factors), 2 (TWO) BTC pm at worst
-- 40% cashed to BTC - i.e. 1.5 / 0.8
-- 25% holding stock - i.e. 0.9375 / 0.4
-- 35% ROI (or loans, depending) - i.e. 1.3125 / 0.7
These numbers are taken from a combination of profitablility calculators from various sources, divided to find a mean, and then reduced by 33%. I've also taken into account reported figures, and again reduced by 33% for the bullshit factor.
I would mainly use switcher pools, at least for the first 3 months.
At this point (I suspect) I would need to make a decision on FPGAs and ASICS. The position I would hope to be in is as follows: (BEST/WORST)
- Cashed currency: 4.5 / 2.4 BTC (i.e. this is held in solid BTC, I do not mean cashed out to money)
- Held (other currencies): 3.75 / 2
- ROI (inc. loans paid): 3.9375 / 2.1
So after 3 months I could be:
- 2.1 paid/4.4 in hand
- 4.5 paid/7.725 in hand
- somewhere in between
[Not included in the above, but hopefully of some value is the equipment, which can be sold off. I am applying a 50% depreciation to this over 3 months, which would leave a value of approx 4 BTC at current value]
I'm obviously aiming for the higher target, so I plan on topping up every month to the max target using my full-time job earnings to this figure, one way or the other.
About me:
- I am an EU resident, western
- I work full time with a MAJOR corporation, and I earn a good salary
- I am part of a dual-income household, which happily gives me a nice disposable, but I have very little in the way of savings, as I demolished them this year making house alterations
So, with all that in mind, am I investable? Is this a ridiculous post? Is anyone interested?
Feel free to post any and all comments, I will be happy with any opinion, even if it is that I am a moron
Rit
