Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?

[Edward50]

Bears only discussion please, please post elsewhere if you're bullish. Serious discussion only here.
 
I sold all my bitcoins last week as I pulled out of all my alts prior to this. I am certain bitcoin will fall lower, and it seems to want to go lower but somehow just keeps rebounding back. Every rebound has failed.

From what I notice there seems to be very little demand above $900's. Nobody seems to want to pay that much money for a bitcoin. We have super low volume and it seems most people are just sitting back and waiting.

Since I sold, it has already went lower and rebounded back like there times. Since I am bearish and think bitcoin got too ahead of itself, and is way too ahead of itself with all the china issues, I am sticking with my bet that it will go lower. Lets face the fact that $800 bitcoin is still a very high amount.

My other reason for bitcoin going lower is that major wales are not making money with the lack of demand above $800 and for them to make money they will let the price fall.

I ask fellow bears, if there are any out there and if there are any out there brave enough to post here, when do you think the price will start to show a significant fall, like staying in the 700's for at least a day.

How far of a fall are we looking at? Do you think we fall below $500's for example?

Or maybe you bears are bullish now, thinking we will just have sideways trading for a while at most, then the prices will start to rise again?

We did predict the last fall in our "bears only" thread that bitcoin would bottom out around $500-$600 and we were right. So I assume we will figure out what is going on here if enough of you offer your thoughts/insight.

[1714005515]

1714005515

[1714005515]

1714005515

[1714005515]

1714005515

[1714005515]

1714005515

[1714005515]

1714005515

[podyx]

[Wetish]

I have my buy orders starting at $200 on btc-e

[damiano]

880

[Edward50]

Its going down pretty low right now, maybe this will be the time it finally pops.

[kireinaha]

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

[Tzupy]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

[notme]

What if I don't know what the fuck will happen, but I am willing to entertain both bearish and bullish analysis?  Am I allowed to participate, or is this only for bears that are on the same caliber as the $10k in a month crowd?

Seriously, you sold everything?  I sure hope you are right.

[notme]

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

How is somebody risking their money to support an investment "manipulation"?  Or is it "manipulation" only because it goes against your opinion?

[windjc]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong.  What were your calls in September?

[notme]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

Wave C is indeed the primary bearish case to consider.  I would love to see us make it that low, but if we do go down, I will start buying anything below 650ish.

[notme]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong?  What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

[windjc]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong?  What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Here's another dated Sept. 15th:

That would result in touching the 150$, I can't imagine how it would be possible.
IMO what happened today was a 'dead cat bounce', caused by minnows looking like whales, due to low volume.

Indeed it seems Tzupy is at the very least consistent. From Sept. 27th

I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.

Sept. 28th:

IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.

Nov. 5th (I've left out about 40 other bearish posts):

It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$,  and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.

[kireinaha]

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

How is somebody risking their money to support an investment "manipulation"?  Or is it "manipulation" only because it goes against your opinion?

Yeah, you're right, I'm just trying to make it more entertaining by alluding to some kind of market conspiracy. But really, with such low volume and the Jan 31 deadline looming, it doesn't make sense to me why buyers keep jumping in to prop up the price almost immediately every time it dips.

[notme]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong?  What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Tzupy isn't on trial here.  Even if he was, hewas new then and I have seen his analysis mature a bit.  Anyway, downward movement is possible from this point.  We would like to discuss how far such a move might extend if you don't mind.

[notme]

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

How is somebody risking their money to support an investment "manipulation"?  Or is it "manipulation" only because it goes against your opinion?

Yeah, you're right, I'm just trying to make it more entertaining by alluding to some kind of market conspiracy. But really, with such low volume and the Jan 31 deadline looming, it doesn't make sense to me why buyers keep jumping in to prop up the price almost immediately every time it dips.

Perhaps their available information, or their interpretation is different than yours.  Most people strive to act rationally most of the time, especially with money.  Follow your curiosity and you might just figure out why they are willing to put so much on the line.

[windjc]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong?  What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Tzupy isn't on trial here.  Even if he was, hewas new then and I have seen his analysis mature a bit.  Anyway, downward movement is possible from this point.  We would like to discuss how far such a move might extend if you don't mind.

Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't. That is the example I was making of Tzupy.

My issue with bears is a mainly only THIS: many of them have a "value" that they think bitcoin is worth. And its arbitrary and its in their head. And they see the world through that "value".  And unless bitcoin fails, it can only end badly for someone like that.

[notme]

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here.  Me included.  That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads.  I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance.  If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground.  The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading.  When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them.  We need less trolling and more education.  But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

[MAbtc]

Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't.

I hadn't noticed. Are we talking about "bears" or "perma bears"? The latter are not worth mentioning.

[windjc]

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here.  Me included.  That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads.  I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance.  If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground.  The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading.  When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them.  We need less trolling and more education.  But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.