Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?

[MatTheCat]

We have only seen the beginning of the end of the bulltrap. I´m seein 550$(Stamp) by Monday. Don´t try to catch fallink Knifes when it is going to happen.

I think we will see the $500 range again, but don't sense anything about the charts or momentum to suggest that we are going to have a sudden plummet. A slow grind for the time being I reckon.

[fonzie]

[MatTheCat]

The first red circle was drawn around a phase right on the aftermath of a meteoric rise followed by the ultra bearish double top, and some pretty scary news coming out of China.

The second red circle is drawn around a phase occurring several weeks after a shocking crash, and a grinding recovery which ran out of steam just below a crucial support level, and is now grinding back down.

Two entirely different scenarios. I do think that Bitcoin is headed lower, I just don't think that we are going to wake up to an overnight 60% correction, at least not as things presently stand. Next stop is $680 - $720, followed by a bounce back up from there.

[T.Stuart]

Two entirely different scenarios. I do think that Bitcoin is headed lower, I just don't think that we are going to wake up to an overnight 60% correction, at least not as things presently stand. Next stop is $680 - $720, followed by a bounce back up from there.

Nice try MatTheCat. I'm afraid it won't budge to where you want it to!

Oh sorry, have I just posted in a "bears only" discussion? Please excuse me!   

[MatTheCat]

Nice try MatTheCat. I'm afraid it won't budge to where you want it to!

Oh sorry, have I just posted in a "bears only" discussion? Please excuse me!  

I have absolutely no skin in the game at the moment after my $260 dollar burning fiasco in trying to short Bitcoin at $813 on Bitfinex's retarded exchange interface.....I ended up shorting right enough, but then also using margin to go long on two counts that I thought were Stop Loss and and Stop Trade (take profit at certain level) orders.

But with no skin in the game, I don't actually care which direction Bitcoin goes, but I do want to be on the right side of the trade, whatever the direction.

Right now, I am sitting out cos right now, Bitcoin is going to trend. A bit down, but overall probably more up than down, but not enough up to make it worth my while going long. Next noteworthy movement is going to be a move down, of that I am certain. Hopefully when the time comes, I will be able to actually make a short trade on Bitfinex without emptying the contents of my wallet into the aether on the back of their retarded jambled up trading interface, but if it transpires that I am wrong in my bearish stance, then hopefully I will change my outlook timely enough to take advantage of the move.

[Edward50]

I agree, there will probably not be any crash. It will be a slow grind downwards with many bull traps, and dead cat bounces. Kind of what we are seeing. These little rallies will be less profitable as we are seeing and will cause more people to stop participating in them.

When the prices start to get towards the low 700's and maybe breaking into the 600's, we may see a panic sell off.

I think what we are seeing now is the unsustainable price levels. What we probably have are a few wealthy speculators trading back and forth keeping the price higher than normal and also the reason for the recent rally to $1000. But these wealthy speculators will see less and less profits and might even start seeing losses. They may very well be cashing out slowly as they realize the demand is not there for prices higher than $1000.

The market already tried to rally a few times to go past $1000, but failed each time even with the really low volume.

Anyone not cashing out at least half of their bitcoins are taking on extreme risk. Better to cash out now and see where we are headed as the potential for bitcoins to go higher is very doubtful but the risks of it going much lower are very high right now. Simply put, the risk to reward by sitting on bitcoins is not in your favor. This basically means that the price is just too high right now.

I also do not see any major news event coming to save bitcoin. What I think is that the rise of bitcoin to these high price levels is the market pricing in far more growth than bitcoin will see. I don't see any better news coming out than has been out. Just a few days ago I read something on my cell phone about a venture capitalist seeing bitcoin at $100,000 a coin. Actually, every day I see some kind of news about bitcoin from the major media outlets. Even with all this news bitcoin still can't go over $1000.

[smoothie]

I'm seeing a similar short-term drop. Longer-term is always a different story.

Take some money off of the table, if it is profit. Profit will always be profit even if the market moves 10x, 20x, 100x against you. Just don't sell all.

[Nagle]

For a brief time, Bitcon was a legal way for people in China to get money out of yuan and into dollars or euros. China has rather severe restrictions on moving capital out of yuan. That made Bitcoin very useful in China. This drove a big run-up in Bitcoin prices.

That's over. There's a lot of denial about this on the forums, but the People's Bank of China has made their decision and is enforcing it. There's a lot of talk on the forums about "no one can stop Bitcoin" and such. They're missing the point. Bitcoin was, briefly, a safe, easy, and legal way to move capital out of China.  The PBC has taken away "safe, legal, and easy". It's not totally impossible for someone in China to buy Bitcoins and sell them outside China for dollars. But there's now a chance of getting caught. So the advantage of Bitcoin over other illegal and semi-legal approaches (taking cash to Singapore or Hong Kong, for example) has been lost.

Bitcoin really ought to slide down to back where it was pre-China, but may not go down that far.

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

[Holliday]

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

Yes, because the only thing Bitcoin is useful for is "profits". :/

[Tzupy]

It's normal to expect a 'fallout', bitcoins from Chinese exchanges sold on western exchanges, but only when a downtrend will be quite obvious.
Considering that the flow of fiat into western exchanges has slowed down, this could temporarily cause a large drop in price.
In such a case, it looks like Bitstamp is going to experience the largest drop, because it's the main cashing-out exchange.

[N12]

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

So is gold.

[T.Stuart]

For a brief time, Bitcon was a legal way for people in China to get money out of yuan and into dollars or euros. China has rather severe restrictions on moving capital out of yuan. That made Bitcoin very useful in China. This drove a big run-up in Bitcoin prices.

That's over. There's a lot of denial about this on the forums, but the People's Bank of China has made their decision and is enforcing it. There's a lot of talk on the forums about "no one can stop Bitcoin" and such. They're missing the point. Bitcoin was, briefly, a safe, easy, and legal way to move capital out of China.  The PBC has taken away "safe, legal, and easy". It's not totally impossible for someone in China to buy Bitcoins and sell them outside China for dollars. But there's now a chance of getting caught. So the advantage of Bitcoin over other illegal and semi-legal approaches (taking cash to Singapore or Hong Kong, for example) has been lost.

Bitcoin really ought to slide down to back where it was pre-China, but may not go down that far.

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

Sorry to say, and I don't mean to sound derogatory about your opinion, but bear or bull it really doesn't seem to me like you have a good grasp of the situation. Granted it is not easy to get a complete picture because Bitcoin is unlike any type of asset, currency, payment system or whatever that exists today (in fact it is like a multi-faceted mix of elements from them + ?), but boiling everything down in the way you have done is too cynical and not accurate, even if you believe it is more realistic in comparison with the views of the optimist crowd... ahem  

[podyx]

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

So is gold.

lol its funny cuz nagle talks about losers

[knightcoin]

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

So is gold.

and salt, and rocks, and you name it ... but when you shift your view to the process it self ... you will know why people started to use one process instead another ...

bit off topic but as an analogy: in networking we already shift from point-to-point communication to distributed communication model. You don't do tcp over telephony anymore, you do telephony over tcp.

[joshraban76]

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

Yes, because the only thing Bitcoin is useful for is "profits". :/

but what % of investors/traders do you think believe that? a fair amount i think.

[piramida]

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

So is gold.

...and everything else on this planet! When you buy one pizza, somebody just lost one pizza, so they are pizza losers dollar gainers. Continuing supply of pizzas is necessary to keep the pizza shop going. If people stop producing pizzas but continue eating pizzas that whole celebration will soon come to a halt, but I fail to see how is that an argument that a pizza shop is a bad business? *Every* market on earth promptly fails when supply goes to zero.

[DPoS]

coinbase crimping instant buys from 10btc to 1 per week is a pretty big curb on demand side...  sure you can still do the 50/day delay buy but that is pretty risky unless there is a big drop in price which proves that taking away 90% of instant buy reduces the support potential

they had to do this since USD from the states got blocked from btc-e and we all know about gox..  

right now btc price can remain a hostage around 800 as long as the few power brokers want it that way.  And they probably will keep it around here as long as their algos can make gains from the 780-830 churn

coinbase would love it to stay in this range so they can fleece with their 1% fees and wide spreads and having the price stay stable to promote more use of btc as a currency

[piramida]

coinbase crimping instant buys from 10btc to 1 per week is a pretty big curb on demand side...  sure you can still do the 50/day delay by but that is pretty risky unless there is a big drop in price which proves that taking away 90% of instant buy reduces the support potential

you never used them right? when you buy 50btc you fix the price at that instant moment you bought, you just can't sell right away. but works just fine for investing.

[DPoS]

coinbase crimping instant buys from 10btc to 1 per week is a pretty big curb on demand side...  sure you can still do the 50/day delay by but that is pretty risky unless there is a big drop in price which proves that taking away 90% of instant buy reduces the support potential

you never used them right? when you buy 50btc you fix the price at that instant moment you bought, you just can't sell right away. but works just fine for investing.

pure idiots can't tell they are idiots....  I am speaking of protecting a floor price..not a mindless 'stacker' like you (btc cheap at any price, right?)
  you buying at 820 with no hope of selling before a crash up to 5-7 days is hostage money for them.  and on the reverse, if btc runs up to a 920 spike, you can't participate in those gains if it slides back down on the churn before you get your btc.

Why do you keep trying to just put your one way mentality into other points?

[piramida]

pure idiots can't tell they are idiots....

That I will agree on easily, seeing as you try to use coinbase for daytrading. However, you said something about "demand side" earlier, which daytraders don't contribute anything to as they cancel out their contribution. Coinbase buyers, on the other hand, do contribute a lot, and they don't really care whether coins arrive today or a week later, because they are not going to sell for a 80$ "profit".