Panic Selling To Come

[Surawit]

We've been through this thousands of times. The Titanic is not sinking, we are just undergoing a natural short-term adjustment of the water level, in response to sudden iceberg proximity.

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[smoothie]

We've been through this thousands of times. The Titanic is not sinking, we are just undergoing a natural short-term adjustment of the water level, in response to sudden iceberg proximity.

I welcome you to revisit this thread in the next several weeks as the market unfolds.

[Sekioh]

Charts may not help you predict what the future will hold, BUT they will let you match reasons with past and THAT will help you start to predict (short time) what reactions will happen to what news and how long it will last before it turns again.

[coined]

did you see the amount of ask bids that got removed between 6 to 6.8( i think) as that little sell off to 6.89 happened. gave some people a fright  

they will probably come back up if the price floats up again

[smoothie]

Charts may not help you predict what the future will hold, BUT they will let you match reasons with past and THAT will help you start to predict (short time) what reactions will happen to what news and how long it will last before it turns again.

Take a seat and watch the market unfold...

[Edward50]

smoothie:

I think your dead right. I actually risked buying my first bitcoins below $7.00. I expected a short term rally because of the bid side of mt. gox got heavily inflated.

However, it looks like that is not able to cause a short term rally. I think I may put in a stop-loss on my bitcoins, because we are heading down.

This looks really bad.

[Minsc]

smoothie:

I think your dead right. I actually risked buying my first bitcoins below $7.00. I expected a short term rally because of the bid side of mt. gox got heavily inflated.

However, it looks like that is not able to cause a short term rally. I think I may put in a stop-loss on my bitcoins, because we are heading down.

This looks really bad.

It's been hovering around 7.05-7.20 and refusing to go higher or lower.  The market manipulator tried hard with a massive buywall at 7.15 then 7.20 and it just refused to go above 7.20.  This means people just don't want to buy above 7.20.  Now is the time to sell as it will crash soon.  I sold mine.

[gw4tt]

You heard it, the manipulator has failed. He put in his best efforts to push the market up with his manipulation, however it didn't work out. Now we are headed down. 

[Edward50]

smoothie:

I think your dead right. I actually risked buying my first bitcoins below $7.00. I expected a short term rally because of the bid side of mt. gox got heavily inflated.

However, it looks like that is not able to cause a short term rally. I think I may put in a stop-loss on my bitcoins, because we are heading down.

This looks really bad.

It's been hovering around 7.05-7.20 and refusing to go higher or lower.  The market manipulator tried hard with a massive buywall at 7.15 then 7.20 and it just refused to go above 7.20.  This means people just don't want to buy above 7.20.  Now is the time to sell as it will crash soon.  I sold mine.

Hey Minsc:

I just sold my bitcoins also, I have noticed the same, it is looking very very bad.

[the joint]

Looks pretty good to me.  In my opinion, focusing too much on the specifics of the market will make you miss the big picture which is quite easy to grasp.

What does big picture look like?
1.)  A growing economy, but not a substantial nor rapidly growing one
2.)  BTC currently pegged to fiat exchange rate = profit mindset for most users.  This is actually a good thing for Bitcoin in the short term as people will buy after every large sell-off, even panic sells.  The psychological end of this is a motive for profit.
3.)  An electrical cost that acts as a psychological base value figure. 

#1 and #2 are the most important ones and they act upon each other.  There are simply not enough avenues to spend/save/invest BTC yet that make it a viable or convenient alternative to fiat.  Until this happens (most likely this will happen when there is some type of insurance backing BTC that will virtually eliminate fears of scamming/losing BTC) we cannot expect to maintain a high BTC value. 

But, the motive for profit in people can be extremely strong.  BTC will not collapse completely.  There will always be supports at the very bottom, and those supports are very strong.  There is a psychological effect from knowing that BTC was once valued at $30 and then seeing it valued at under $1...the motive to buy at that point is reinforced by past data that suggests it has potential to grow again exponentially.

I think everything is in perfect order in Bitcoin land.  We have new users registering on the forum every day.  Bitcoins just simply cant be expected to be worth $10 when there are not enough goods/services backing the $10 price tag.  The electrical cost associated with Bitcoin generation in relation to difficulty will help maintain a base value.

Enjoy the ride down.  Don't be scared of heights when there's a nice soft cushion at the bottom.

[Technomage]

Each and every one of OP's points are irrelevant. Almost all of them are becoming more irrelevant and forgotten every day and will not cause a panic sale of any sort, ever.

The last point about miners producing coins has not changed from the day Bitcoin started, there is a fixed amount of coins entering the Bitcoin economy every day. The effect of this depends on two things specifically: how many coins are miners saving and how many are they selling, and importantly, the adoption rate of Bitcoin, or the growth of the Bitcoin network.

Lately we have been on a degrowth mode from the peak so it's obvious that there has been a bit of an inflationary effect which has probably affected the price a bit, but this is not getting worse in the near future, it's going to get better. Looking at the transaction counts I'm seeing a level off and a new growth pattern within a few months at least, possibly earlier.

This is one of the worst attempts at analyzing a drop in Bitcoin's price, none of those issues are likely to cause a major drop in the near future, let alone a panic sell.

I'll talk about one of the other points for kicks, the alternative chains. So far every fork of Bitcoin has been a massive failure, the latest super-failure being Solidcoin. The only one that's actually good is Namecoin but that isn't a competitor of Bitcoin, it's actually a useful fork that adds features.

I'm not saying there can't be a truly solid and superior fork in the future, but that's fine, then we evolve to use that fork. But so far nothing revolutionary has surfaced. And it's very difficult for something like that to surface because Bitcoin is very solid in itself.

[Jixtreme]

Even if/when a decent fork comes along, it's not like it will be a mass exodus from Bitcoin. There will be competition and years of back-and-forth until the dominant currency is established. Even then, there will be die-hards who will cling to the losing protocol, slowing its decent.

[RodeoX]

How bout a prediction backed by some money? Something like "Bitcoin will drop to $2 this week or the first 10 poster in this thread receive .5 BTC."
Studies of crowd sourcing show that if people are required to put money behind their opinions the correctness of their predictions goes way up. They also stop making sensational predictions.
look at http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ , Their predictions are strong because of this phenomena.

[mobodick]

You heard it, the manipulator has failed. He put in his best efforts to push the market up with his manipulation, however it didn't work out. Now we are headed down. 

And thank the spaghetti monster for that!
I've sold at the last 6.2 and have had a couple of nightmarish days when the price went up and hoovered around 7.0.
Finaly some sleep

[Minsc]

How bout a prediction backed by some money? Something like "Bitcoin will drop to $2 this week or the first 10 poster in this thread receive .5 BTC."

Someone said that the more threads I make here, the more the price falls.  And I made this one https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42302.0