the Hodl and why.

[jubalix]

Given the many large *crashes*, read, I only have 500% rather than 2500% since I purchased, and the risk of trading , being in fiat, and then seeing an order of magnitude jump in BTC, but missing out, or put another way selling because BTC has peaked, and only to buy in later less coins...and this has happened so many time now, eg, every one who bought at $250, and just held would still be 300% ahead now, for these reason the Hodl I believe has arisen. Hodl has just encapsulated a latent understanding of the BTC operation, and it didn't have an adequate descriptor before.

Hodl has several advantages.
Less stress.
You wait for the BTC services to come to you.
Every day more  goods and services can be purchased directly for BTC, so its more efficient to wait.  
You stand a better chance of doing a 10x by Hodl, but 10x in trading is not easy
What are you going to do with your Fiat anyway? So you have FIAT now....what are you going to buy with it. Apart from say a good house, not much else is life changing, just a car that will devalue, or some plastic crap, or tech gadget that will be obsolete in 3 years. Essentially for whatever reason you went into crypto in the first place, it going to be difficult to find a better thing to do with the FIAT than be in crypto.

I'm not against say spending a portion of Hodl (making me a small h Hodl) so you can get something, or perhaps your initial Fiat back, so you can Hodl better.

I'm just trying to articulate the inchoate thinking behind hodl and why it resonates.

I'm not against trading, just remember for every winner in a trade there is a looser, and you can loose twice in an evaluation event.

[T.Stuart]

Thank you for this sensible message!

A word to new people thinking of trying their hand at trading: with hindsight everything looks easy.

I have lost track of how many short-term predictions from experts and traders have been wrong - I would say certainly the majority I have seen here. Many people have lost a lot of money trying to double their money quickly, rather than simply investing in the fundamentals and waiting for extraordinarily good profits a year or two down the line.

Unless you have money to burn or a sixth sense, do not day-trade with Bitcoin. Investing for the long-term has proven to be far more profitable for most.

[Wilhelm]

The OP is self-justification and an insight in the uncertanty of TS.

True: If you can't trade HODL. It is a good strategy I do it too and most people should.

If you think you can make "more" money hodling then you're still thinking in terms of fiat.
If you think in terms of being able to buy more with crypto you are truely free of thinking fiat.

Cars will still devaluate if you buy them with bitcoin. The only thing that will change is how much you can buy with an amount of fiat/coin.

[superresistant]

You can make big profit with trading but you must stay on the screen all day all night. Then most of your profit is used on drugs to balance stress or stay focused.

So fuck the trading. I am hodling.

[T.Stuart]

The OP is self-justification and an insight in the uncertanty of TS.

True: If you can't trade HODL. It is a good strategy I do it too and most people should.

If you think you can make "more" money hodling then you're still thinking in terms of fiat.
If you think in terms of being able to buy more with crypto you are truely free of thinking fiat.

Cars will still devaluate if you buy them with bitcoin. The only thing that will change is how much you can buy with an amount of fiat/coin.

I agree wholeheartedly that weaning yourself off thinking always in fiat would be great - but for many people coming into the game and for most in the game (me included) it starts with thinking in fiat terms! So addressing the issues in this way is going to strike a chord with most! 

[Bitcoin BEAR]

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

[segeln]

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

so,go on and tell us some real good reasons for being a bear !

[T.Stuart]

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

If you don't explain things in a lucid fashion then people without experience would get swayed by the mad FUD and eccentric and biased TA that abounds in here! 

[segeln]

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

If you don't explain things in a lucid fashion ...

I never,ever read a very sound  and lucid reason for being a bear

[Sitarow]

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

so,go on and tell us some real good reasons for being a bear?

If you must then a good motive would be to pay down mining operation expenses/loans.

[jubalix]

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

so,go on and tell us some real good reasons for being a bear?

If you must then a good motive would be to pay down mining operation expenses/loans.

hodl PeerCoin, no mining equipment to pay down.....

[JimboToronto]

Hodl has several advantages.

You forgot to mention that there are no exchange fees for holding.

[Dafar]

I'm a holder of BTC and LTC... but I do like to participate in movements that I can almost predict and increase my holdings.

For example... When BTC went up to $950 a week ago, there was almost no reason for that to happen given the fear of China's Jan 31st deadline, and it is obvious that the $1000 mark is where many traders who have been holding are gonna sell and take profits.

So I went to fiat when it reached around $930-940. Buying back in right now around $806 and gaining more BTC. It may keep going down past $800, but I don't care... I'm just going to hold it until it goes back again. The price can go either direction on Jan 31st... I'm willing to bet nothing significant will happen on the 31st (friday), but we will probably see another dip on Feb 3rd (monday). But I'm just not gonna worry about it and hold until Summer.

Every time it goes close to $1000 or even $1200, without something significant happening, it's a good time to fall back to fiat and buy at a lower price during the correlation. Every time the price is around $800, it's a great time to buy. I have just been following this simple strategy

[T.Stuart]

I'm a holder of BTC and LTC... but I do like to participate in movements that I can almost predict and increase my holdings.

For example... When BTC went up to $950 a week ago, there was almost no reason for that to happen given the fear of China's Jan 31st deadline, and it is obvious that the $1000 mark is where many traders who have been holding are gonna sell and take profits.

So I went to fiat when it reached around $930-940. Buying back in right now around $806 and gaining more BTC. It may keep going down past $800, but I don't care... I'm just going to hold it until it goes back again. The price can go either direction on Jan 31st... I'm willing to bet nothing significant will happen on the 31st (friday), but we will probably another dip on Feb 3rd (monday). But I'm just not gonna worry about it and hold until Summer.

Every time it goes close to $1000 or even $1200, without some significant happening, its a good time to fall back to fiat and buy at a lower price during the correlation. Every time the price is around $800, it's a great time to buy. I have just been following this simple strategy

Support at 800... straight from the horse's mouth! 

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Hodl has several advantages.

You forgot to mention that there are no exchange fees for holding.

Who cares about exchange fees? If you're profiting, then it's irrelevant. I would gladly pay 25BTC for the 150BTC of profit I've taken, over and over and over again.

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

so,go on and tell us some real good reasons for being a bear?

There's a question mark, but it's more of a statement... It was just two simple questions of if this is like an AA support group and who he was trying to convince!?!??! Himself??
I didn't come in here yelling "BEAR BEAR BEAR"!
It seems to me, that every thread that pops up explaining why you're holding, is just fishing for approval. Trying to rationalize an irrational behavior. It sounds like the "acceptance" stage of grief when you're about to die.

Tell me some good reasons to buy at whatever price and hold until it's worthless!
Why is that such a good strategy? ...and "Because it has only ever gone up" is an unacceptable answer.

What are your goals? Holding on the way down won't make you be able to buy more goods (less purchasing power). Fiat profits? Again, holding in an obvious down trend is a terrible way to preserve capital.

I'm guessing it's greed! We all have it, but the HODLers ooze it from every orifice. Rational traders have greed too, sure, but they don't let it dilute their perception of a bad decision (aka delusion). 

Whoa, that felt good!
Thanks, and have a nice day!

~BEAR

[T.Stuart]

Hodl has several advantages.

You forgot to mention that there are no exchange fees for holding.

Who cares about exchange fees? If you're profiting, then it's irrelevant. I would gladly pay 25BTC for the 150BTC of profit I've taken, over and over and over again.

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

so,go on and tell us some real good reasons for being a bear?

There's a question mark, but it's more of a statement... It was just two simple questions of if this is like an AA support group and who he was trying to convince!?!??! Himself??
I didn't come in here yelling "BEAR BEAR BEAR"!
It seems to me, that every thread that pops up explaining why you're holding, is just fishing for approval. Trying to rationalize an irrational behavior. It sounds like the "acceptance" stage of grief when you're about to die.

Tell me some good reasons to buy at whatever price and hold until it's worthless!
Why is that such a good strategy? ...and "Because it has only ever gone up" is an unacceptable answer.

What are your goals? Holding on the way down won't make you be able to buy more goods (less purchasing power). Fiat profits? Again, holding in an obvious down trend is a terrible way to preserve capital.

I'm guessing it's greed! We all have it, but the HODLers ooze it from every orifice. Rational traders have greed too, sure, but they don't let it dilute their perception of a bad decision (aka delusion). 

Whoa, that felt good!
Thanks, and have a nice day!

~BEAR

Yeah you must be getting seriously tense... tense and anxious. All that waiting. We feel for you man. Come in here and yell anytime you like. You can even cry if you want. We're here for you buddy. 

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Hodl has several advantages.

You forgot to mention that there are no exchange fees for holding.

Who cares about exchange fees? If you're profiting, then it's irrelevant. I would gladly pay 25BTC for the 150BTC of profit I've taken, over and over and over again.

What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?

so,go on and tell us some real good reasons for being a bear?

There's a question mark, but it's more of a statement... It was just two simple questions of if this is like an AA support group and who he was trying to convince!?!??! Himself??
I didn't come in here yelling "BEAR BEAR BEAR"!
It seems to me, that every thread that pops up explaining why you're holding, is just fishing for approval. Trying to rationalize an irrational behavior. It sounds like the "acceptance" stage of grief when you're about to die.

Tell me some good reasons to buy at whatever price and hold until it's worthless!
Why is that such a good strategy? ...and "Because it has only ever gone up" is an unacceptable answer.

What are your goals? Holding on the way down won't make you be able to buy more goods (less purchasing power). Fiat profits? Again, holding in an obvious down trend is a terrible way to preserve capital.

I'm guessing it's greed! We all have it, but the HODLers ooze it from every orifice. Rational traders have greed too, sure, but they don't let it dilute their perception of a bad decision (aka delusion). 

Whoa, that felt good!
Thanks, and have a nice day!

~BEAR

Yeah you must be getting seriously tense... tense and anxious. All that waiting. We feel for you man. Come in here and yell anytime you like. You can even cry if you want. We're here for you buddy. 

Really, man? That whole post, and THAT's what you gather from it? hoo hoo ha ha hehe ho ho
Don't worry about me, dood, I do very well around so many pigs.  I'm cool, calm and collected

[deadfi$h]

Unless you have money to burn or a sixth sense, do not day-trade with Bitcoin. Investing for the long-term has proven to be far more profitable for most.

This is interesting and I think a lot of people around these forums agree with you. The thing to remember though is that buy and hold is a great strategy until it's not. I don't think it's wise to assume that previous growth in the price of bitcoin is going to continue forever. Unfortunately, new investors in almost every new raging bull market make the same assumption. Now that said, I would think you're probably safe as of now because there's still quite a bit more upside left to the market (in my opinion).

I think about it like this... who lost money in the 2009 stock market crash? Or the .com bubble? Or the 1929 Black Friday crash? Lost significant long term, life changing money in the form of unrealized gains that turn into huge losses?

It's always buy and hold investors that take the brunt of those losses. Swing/day traders might actually make huge profits on those same days. So sometimes the safe strategy isn't so safe when the market conditions suddenly switch on you. Short term investors have the ability to adjust to rapidly changing conditions where investors following the buy and hold strategy will be much slower to respond.  

[TERA]

Reasons for being a trader:

1) I have 100x more coins than when I started.

2) I'm too lazy to list more reasons.

[segeln]

There's a question mark, but it's more of a statement...
Tell me some good reasons to buy at whatever price and hold until it's worthless!
Why is that such a good strategy? ...and "Because it has only ever gone up" is an unacceptable answer.

What are your goals? Holding on the way down won't make you be able to buy more goods (less purchasing power). Fiat profits? Again, holding in an obvious down trend is a terrible way to preserve capital.

The question mark was wrong. It should be an Explanation mark. I corrected it
In your questions above you are implying an "obvious downtrend" down to worthlessness.
My wish is it to get real,real good explanations for that.

Why I am hodling? Because my expectations und surveillance of the BTC-World leads me to the conclusion the price-saturation is not achieved yet
When i think it is achieved I will sell.

[T.Stuart]

Unless you have money to burn or a sixth sense, do not day-trade with Bitcoin. Investing for the long-term has proven to be far more profitable for most.

This is interesting and I think a lot of people around these forums agree with you. The thing to remember though is that buy and hold is a great strategy until it's not. I don't think it's wise to assume that previous growth in the price of bitcoin is going to continue forever. Unfortunately, new investors in almost every new raging bull market make the same assumption. Now that said, I would think you're probably safe as of now because there's still quite a bit more upside left to the market (in my opinion).

I think about it like this... who lost money in the 2009 stock market crash? Or the .com bubble? Or the 1929 Black Friday crash? Lost significant long term, life changing money in the form of unrealized gains that turn into huge losses?

It's always buy and hold investors that take the brunt of those losses. Swing/day traders might actually make huge profits on those same days. So sometimes the safe strategy isn't so safe when the market conditions suddenly switch on you. Short term investors have the ability to adjust to rapidly changing conditions where investors following the buy and hold strategy will be much slower to respond.  

You're on the right track here with your words but there's something you're not making clear enough. This is not about two types of "trading"; this is about "trading" and "investing".

Let's say "trading" means aiming to make money from daily/weekly trends. "Investing" means looking at the fundamentals and judging whether there is more growth to happen over the long-term. Actually when it really comes down to fundamentals such as the balance sheet, the technology, the potential untapped markets, etc. against the tools used for trading such as Fibonacci retracement, triangles, etc., "investing" and "trading" (as described above) are two very different things, and generally-speaking they are seen as such across the markets today.

For any newb coming here trading is dangerous. For quite a few it is the first time they have had access to exchanges, charts, etc. With the benefit of hindsight they think it's easy to predict things and double your money in days. They also get swayed by the madness in here. And they get burned straight away!

Overall the fundamentals of Bitcoin look very good right now. If it wasn't for these, notably for example (after looking at the technology itself) the huge potential for adoption (the market is no-where near saturation), then far fewer people, myself included, would be advising investing.

For many of those coming here it provides a rare opportunity to be able freely to invest in the equivalent of a promising tech start up, something they would not be able to do elsewhere.

For experienced traders who are looking at it from a daily perspective, Bitcoin is simply another set of charts and data - another challenge to decipher. But would a pure trader be winning over a hodler at this early stage? I think for the vast majority investing will still be the most profitable course of action, and certainly the wisest, for 2014.

[jballs]

A pretty good book on the subject...

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0091XN1KS#!


(not an affiliate link) 

[jubalix]

Unless you have money to burn or a sixth sense, do not day-trade with Bitcoin. Investing for the long-term has proven to be far more profitable for most.

This is interesting and I think a lot of people around these forums agree with you. The thing to remember though is that buy and hold is a great strategy until it's not. I don't think it's wise to assume that previous growth in the price of bitcoin is going to continue forever. Unfortunately, new investors in almost every new raging bull market make the same assumption. Now that said, I would think you're probably safe as of now because there's still quite a bit more upside left to the market (in my opinion).

I think about it like this... who lost money in the 2009 stock market crash? Or the .com bubble? Or the 1929 Black Friday crash? Lost significant long term, life changing money in the form of unrealized gains that turn into huge losses?

It's always buy and hold investors that take the brunt of those losses. Swing/day traders might actually make huge profits on those same days. So sometimes the safe strategy isn't so safe when the market conditions suddenly switch on you. Short term investors have the ability to adjust to rapidly changing conditions where investors following the buy and hold strategy will be much slower to respond.  

there was no, microwave crash, wheel crash, etc, these invention are with us today. Crypto is that sort of new invention. Aslo the .com bust was very limited to those who could even get a buy in, crypto are far more broad based.

[deadfi$h]

Unless you have money to burn or a sixth sense, do not day-trade with Bitcoin. Investing for the long-term has proven to be far more profitable for most.

This is interesting and I think a lot of people around these forums agree with you. The thing to remember though is that buy and hold is a great strategy until it's not. I don't think it's wise to assume that previous growth in the price of bitcoin is going to continue forever. Unfortunately, new investors in almost every new raging bull market make the same assumption. Now that said, I would think you're probably safe as of now because there's still quite a bit more upside left to the market (in my opinion).

I think about it like this... who lost money in the 2009 stock market crash? Or the .com bubble? Or the 1929 Black Friday crash? Lost significant long term, life changing money in the form of unrealized gains that turn into huge losses?

It's always buy and hold investors that take the brunt of those losses. Swing/day traders might actually make huge profits on those same days. So sometimes the safe strategy isn't so safe when the market conditions suddenly switch on you. Short term investors have the ability to adjust to rapidly changing conditions where investors following the buy and hold strategy will be much slower to respond.  

For any newb coming here trading is dangerous. For quite a few it is the first time they have had access to exchanges, charts, etc. With the benefit of hindsight they think it's easy to predict things and double your money in days. They also get swayed by the madness in here. And they get burned straight away!

Overall the fundamentals of Bitcoin look very good right now. If it wasn't for these, notably for example (after looking at the technology itself) the huge potential for adoption (the market is no-where near saturation), then far fewer people, myself included, would be advising investing.

I agree with most of your points about trading vs investing. They are different mindsets.

I don't agree that an inexperienced trader/investor is somehow able to accurately judge the fundamentals of any commodity/stock/currency and turn that into an accurate price target. Bitcoin is especially difficult to do fundamental analysis on because there aren't any direct comparisons to it that have already matured. I have a strong feeling that bitcoin is going to become widely adopted and will see lots more upside. I wouldn't feel comfortable investing based on that feeling though... it's not real analysis.

Actually, the cool thing about bitcoin exchanges is that they only charge a percentage fee per trade and no flat fee per transaction (like a stock broker would). That means you could potentially trade with an account worth $10 and see how much you could increase it in percentage terms and it would be very similar to how you'd trade a $10,000 account. If there was a flat fee (say $2 per trade) that wouldn't be possible. Newbies have a pretty easy path to practice trading without big risks.

[T.Stuart]

I agree with most of your points about trading vs investing. They are different mindsets.

I don't agree that an inexperienced trader/investor is somehow able to accurately judge the fundamentals of any commodity/stock/currency and turn that into an accurate price target. Bitcoin is especially difficult to do fundamental analysis on because there aren't any direct comparisons to it that have already matured. I have a strong feeling that bitcoin is going to become widely adopted and will see lots more upside. I wouldn't feel comfortable investing based on that feeling though... it's not fundamental analysis.

Agreed. But in this case fundamental analysis then has to mean working with what you've got. Still certainly very do-able, even if you end up with a set of results that put together cannot be precisely compared to anything that exists today!

The cool thing about bitcoin exchanges is that they only charge a percentage fee per trade and no flat fee per transaction (like stock brokers do). That means you could potentially trade with an account worth $10 and see how much you could increase it in percentage terms and it would be very similar to how you'd trade a $10,000 account. Newbies would have a pretty easy path to learning without big risks.

New people... If you want to trade take this advice!

[piramida]

The cool thing about bitcoin exchanges is that they only charge a percentage fee per trade and no flat fee per transaction (like stock brokers do). That means you could potentially trade with an account worth $10 and see how much you could increase it in percentage terms and it would be very similar to how you'd trade a $10,000 account. Newbies would have a pretty easy path to learning without big risks.

New people... If you want to trade take this advice!

I don't think you can go far with a $10 account, there is a minimum trade limit of 0.01 btc at least on gox which could be more than $10 at times But you could experiment with a $100 account, sure.

[deadfi$h]

I don't think you can go far with a $10 account, there is a minimum trade limit of 0.01 btc at least on gox which could be more than $10 at times But you could experiment with a $100 account, sure.

Yeah, depends on the exchange. Minimum on Bitfinex is 0.001 which works out to about 80 cents/trade.

I started with a mini account to get comfortable with bitcoin before putting any real money in but a bit bigger than that. Took awhile to get the hang of things for sure!

[Richard Branson]

Don't forget to take the psychological effect into consideration.
"Normal" people don't trade the same with a 10$ account as they would do with a 10000$.

You can't learn to drive a race car on a bicycle.

[ArpFlush]

HODL and buy Bitcoin-shirts 

[yayayo]

Don't forget to take the psychological effect into consideration.
"Normal" people don't trade the same with a 10$ account as they would do with a 10000$.

You can't learn to drive a race car on a bicycle.

TL;DR: HODL and hodl are not the same. 


ya.ya.yo!