UFC FN 130: Thompson vs Till Info and Prediction Thread

[tokeweed]

Date: Sunday, May 27
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 14:00 BCT / 7am PST / 10am EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 15:00 BCT / 8am PST / 11am EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 17:00 BCT / 10am PST / 1pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.fìrstrow.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Stephen Thompson (14-2-1) vs. Darren Till (16-0-1) (Welterweight)
Neil Magny (20-6) vs. Craig White (14-7) (Welterweight)
Arnold Allen (12-1) vs. Mads Burnell (9-2) (Featherweight)
Jason Knight (20-4) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (13-3) (Featherweight)
Davey Grant (10-3) vs. Manny Bermudez (11-0) (Bantamweight)
Eric Spicely (10-3) vs. Darren Stewart (7-3) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Claudio Silva (11-1) vs. Nordine Taleb (14-4) (Welterweight)
Dan Kelly (13-3) vs. Tom Breese (10-1) (Middleweight)
Brad Scott (11-5) vs. Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (10-1) (Welterweight)
Gillian Robertson (4-2) vs. Molly McCann (7-1) (Women's Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Elias Theodorou (14-2) vs. Trevor Smith (15-7) (Middleweight)
Gina Mazany (5-1) vs. Lina Lansberg (7-3) (Women's Bantamweight)

Other

- A welterweight bout between Neil Magny and Gunnar Nelson was expected to take place at this event. However on April 28, it was reported that Nelson pulled out of the fight due to a knee injury. On May 15, promotional newcomer Craig White was announced as Magny's new opponent.
- Salim Touahri was scheduled to face Brad Scott at the event. However, Touahri pulled out of the fight in mid-May citing a knee injury. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Carlo Pedersoli Jr. on May 17.

Thanks to the Puertorican for letting me use this content.

[Hydrogen]

Notes

-Makwan Amirkhani has 800+ amateur wrestling matches. He's a very good wrestler with a lot of experience. He needs to round out his game and work on his brazilian jiu jitsu to better capitalize on his strengths. Whatever happens he should always have that solid wrestling base to fall back on.

-All 3 of Davey Grant's losses are via submission. His opponent Manny Bermudez has 11 wins with 8 coming via sub. It may look as if Davey Grant's weaknesses(poor submission defense) align with Bermudez's strengths(strong submissions). That's a tricky call.

-Darren Till looked impressive against Cowboy Cerrone. But one think many seem to overlook is Cowboy stood flatfooted in front of Darren Till. WB Thompson utilizes more movement and is better at setting up his strikes and evading damage than anyone Darren Till has ever fought which could make things difficult. Also because of Darren Till's large size, he might not have the cardio to last 5 rounds.

Bellator 200 Rafael Carvalho vs Gegard Mousasi is also tomorrow (friday the 25th of may).

Rafael Carvalho (c)   vs.   Gegard Mousasi            
Michael Page   vs.   David Rickels            
Phil Davis   vs.   Linton Vassell            
Aaron Chalmers   vs.   Ash Griffiths            
Anastasia Yankova   vs.   Kate Jackson

[bbc.reporter]

@Hydrogen. Yes but his last fights versus Tyrone Woodley and Jorge Masvidal were not very convincing. He did not show the aggressiveness required to beat a fighter like Darren Till convincingly in those fights, I reckon.

In any case, still very excited to watch that fight. This will be Darren Till's biggest test.

[tokeweed]

Almost every MMA pro is picking Thompson to win due to his experience and movement.  But when I checked the latest lines I was surprised to see Till is now the slight favorite.  That's a huge difference from 2.35 just a month ago to 1.89 today.  Maybe the bookies know something...?

MMA Pros Pick:  Thompson vs Till
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hA7mcpaKykk

[Hydrogen]

I would guess there is a lot of hometown cash being thrown @ Darren Till which moved the line in his favor. Online sports betting is a lot bigger in europe and the UK than it is in the USA. The higher number of gamblers in europe/UK and the higher volume of bets could be moving the line in Tills favor. The swing isn't enough for bookies to be behind it.

Darren Till has history in liverpool. He was stabbed twice there as a youth and wound up in a hospital. He has a 4 year old daughter and a family he left behind in brazil he couldn't afford to take with him back to the UK. Its easy for people to be caught up in the story and romance of things and assume it means Darren Till will win the fight.

[tokeweed]

^  Barring any hidden injuries, it could be a good time to bet heavy on Thompson then...  I wanted to go for it yesterday but I could pull the trigger.  

Edit:  And of course when I finally decide to make the bet Thompson is at 1.82 and Till at 2.07.  Meh.

[eaLiTy]

Bellator 200 Rafael Carvalho vs Gegard Mousasi is also tomorrow (friday the 25th of may).
Rafael Carvalho (c)   vs.   Gegard Mousasi            
Michael Page   vs.   David Rickels            
Phil Davis   vs.   Linton Vassell            

It was a sure shot wins from Gegard Mousasi, Michael Page and Phil Davis, Bellator is giving tailor made easy fights for MVP and he needs to fight some top contenders now to show he is a serious contender rather than giving him opponents to show his highlight reel finishes. Gegard Mousasi and Rory MacDonald might be facing each other next in a champion versus champion bout which will be really interesting as we would not see this match up if they were in the UFC.

When it comes FN 130 i would like to go with Darren Till simply because of his confidence but he missed weight by over three pounds and the pressure being the main event in his hometown might get him as Thomson is good at keeping distance and counter attack his is strength and Till made a prediction that he will finish Thomson inside three rounds, i wish Thomson could finish him in three rounds.

[Hydrogen]

^  Barring any hidden injuries, it could be a good time to bet heavy on Thompson then...  I wanted to go for it yesterday but I could pull the trigger.  

Edit:  And of course when I finally decide to make the bet Thompson is at 1.82 and Till at 2.07.  Meh.

The line swung the other way after Darren Till missed weight by 3.5 pounds. The fight is still on under the stipulation that Darren Till weigh no more than 188 lbs @ 1 pm sunday. UFC fighters who missed weight are undefeated so far in 2018. Not certain if that trend will continue but cardio could be an issue for Darren Till considering he's never gone 5 rounds before and might've had issues with his endurance in a 3 round fight with Nicolas Dalby a few years ago.

The big question for me is whether Darren Till will be able to land strikes on Stephen Thompson. There's no question Darren Till is big and powerful. Can he land consistently. That will determine the outcome of the fight imo.

Bellator is giving tailor made easy fights for MVP and he needs to fight some top contenders now to show he is a serious contender rather than giving him opponents to show his highlight reel finishes.

Its possible no one wants to fight MVP.

They're afraid he'll do to them what he did to David Rickels due to his size(6 foot 3 welterweight), reach 77 inches and unusual style.

[tokeweed]

I didn't watch the fight but I read the play by play at Sherdog.  It looked like it was boring the first two rounds and picked up pace on the third round...?

Opinions?  Anybody?

[nydiacaskey01]

I didn't watch the fight but I read the play by play at Sherdog.  It looked like it was boring the first two rounds and picked up pace on the third round...?

Opinions?  Anybody?

I didn't watch the fight too but someone shared to me the results via twitter. The names in the fight card doesn't ring a bell to me, but maybe for someone who really follows MMA and UFC it is. This is the reason why I don't watch Fight Night just the main event like the upcoming UFC 225 Whittaker vs. Romero 2, its like watching the developmental territory of WWE. If they see a fighter with potential, they move to him/her to the big brands like Raw or Smack Down.

Speaking of UFC 225, do we have a thread for that already OP? I would like to read the others thoughts on this fight.

[Hydrogen]

I didn't watch the fight but I read the play by play at Sherdog.  It looked like it was boring the first two rounds and picked up pace on the third round...?

Opinions?  Anybody?

Jason Knight spent the entire 3rd round on his back with Makwan Amirkhani outworking him. One judge scored it 30-27 Jason knight.

The same judge scored 49-46 in favor of Darren Till. Both of those calls might have been terrible. The entire fight was boring except near the end of round 5 where Wonderboy lost focus and got dropped by Darren Till(almost exactly the same way Wonderboy got dropped by Tyron Woodley in the 5th). Wonderboy has a point fighter mentality where he assumes judges will follow the karate criteria he's used to. He gets lazy and cruises which causes him to look passive in fights, the way Lyoto Machida does.

We'll have to wait and see why Darren Till missed weight. Dana White said there was a reason for it.

[tokeweed]

I didn't watch the fight but I read the play by play at Sherdog.  It looked like it was boring the first two rounds and picked up pace on the third round...?

Opinions?  Anybody?

I didn't watch the fight too but someone shared to me the results via twitter. The names in the fight card doesn't ring a bell to me, but maybe for someone who really follows MMA and UFC it is. This is the reason why I don't watch Fight Night just the main event like the upcoming UFC 225 Whittaker vs. Romero 2, its like watching the developmental territory of WWE. If they see a fighter with potential, they move to him/her to the big brands like Raw or Smack Down.

Speaking of UFC 225, do we have a thread for that already OP? I would like to read the others thoughts on this fight.

I will post the thread in a couple of days.  I think Yoel Romero has a good chance to win it this time.  I mean, watch all of Whitaker's latest fights.  It feels like he's just been 'running good' (there's nothing special about him, he's pretty basic), but sooner or later he'll run out of 'it' and end up getting busto.  Lol.

And it looks like the judging for the main event was rigged in Till's favor.  The Liverpoolian mob prolly got to the judges.