Bitcoin will hit $10,000 in 2014

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

Can't see any sign of 10,000. Or of 5000. Or of 2500. OR OF 1250.

No one saw a sign of 1250 in January 2013.

[tabnloz]

My 2mBTC,

If we see the bitcoin ecosystem grow, then I see a price spike;

More Trading / Derivatives platforms (on the way....Winklevii, UltraCoin)

Major retailer acceptance (Amazon / Ebay  / Google?)


The big one though is of course regulation.

Even though bitcoin doesn't want or need it to operate, surely there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines just waiting to see where the bitcoin economy is headed.

[aminorex]

Regulation can kill bitcoin and insure the dominance of DOGE.

[gentlemand]

Well, if people want the big valuations then they need institutional investors and corporations et al whether that's a good thing or not, probably not.

They're not going to dive in in numbers unless they know what the playing field looks like.

[knightcoin]

Bitcoin needs multi-level marketers the way Vin Diesel needs a haircut. Bitcoin was created to cut out the middleman and now you think introducing a dozen or more middlemen will make it better? You've been smoking too much herbalife.

wait what ? 

[jubalix]

Ah, the exciting $10,000 per Bitcoin in 2014.  Let's see what this means. 

If miners decide to sell all their mined Bitcoins, (or 50%), this is how much daily fresh money is needed on the exchanges for the price to be stable:

2014-2016 :   $36 million ($18 million if 50% sold)
2017-2020:   $18 million ($9 million)
2021-2024:   $9 million ($4.5 million)
etc.

So, if Bitcoin is $10,000 in 2014, good luck in finding that daily tens of millions dollars.

hardly anyone sells, you looking at 10% ~ 1% of that.

[jubalix]

IMO, it just all sounds too good to be true.. it would make me a millionaire, which I find laughable. If it was this predictable/reliable Wall Street would have already been all over it. The previous rises were just easy as fuck, but future significant rises from now require institutional and collective average joe money.
2014 might be an ultra-bear year for all we know. Perhaps it is much needed in order to get rid of the cult-like greedy fanboys and give the developers some room to work without the wrong incentives.

wall street is imaterial except for the fact all the value is being sucked out of their Fiat in the event horizon of BTC, the ones that don't get it are extinct

[knightcoin]

IMO, it just all sounds too good to be true.. it would make me a millionaire, which I find laughable. If it was this predictable/reliable Wall Street would have already been all over it. The previous rises were just easy as fuck, but future significant rises from now require institutional and collective average joe money.
2014 might be an ultra-bear year for all we know. Perhaps it is much needed in order to get rid of the cult-like greedy fanboys and give the developers some room to work without the wrong incentives.

wall street is imaterial except for the fact all the value is being sucked out of their Fiat in the event horizon of BTC, the ones that don't get it are extinct

Fiat in the event horizon ...

cool gonna keep it in my note-book

[jubalix]

My 2mBTC,

If we see the bitcoin ecosystem grow, then I see a price spike;

More Trading / Derivatives platforms (on the way....Winklevii, UltraCoin)

Major retailer acceptance (Amazon / Ebay  / Google?)


The big one though is of course regulation.

Even though bitcoin doesn't want or need it to operate, surely there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines just waiting to see where the bitcoin economy is headed.

retailers don't matter that much, they don't make much money nor are they that larger part of the economy, they are small money depreciating assets. The real money, big end and backbone is in apreciating asset classes and currency backing/swaps/balancing the nightly/forex

eg forex in London a day is around 1.6T, that just blows retail out of the water

[mrjeff]

I can't see $10,000 arriving until there is more demand.  Real demand...not speculative.   At current levels - something like only 400 to 1000 BTC would be traded on Bitstamp in a 24 hour period if the price was 10,000.00.  I just can't see that happening yet.  

[knightcoin]

I can't see $10,000 arriving until there is more demand.  Real demand...not speculative.   At current levels - something like only 400 to 1000 BTC would be traded on Bitstamp in a 24 hour period if the price was 10,000.00.  I just can't see that happening yet.  

what thats supposed to mean??? is the dildo battery running low ?

[dnaleor]

The multilevel marketing guys will take it mainstream this year. Its going to be awesome to watch.

Yes, $10,000 BTC is very real in 2014. Only hurdle to reaching this number would be a continuous warfare from governments worldwide attempting to ban it / restrict it.

Not so high but i would say doubled or tripled value will be a fact ! Also many political events will take place !

Wow!
So marketing!
Many mainstream!
Much hurdle!
Such double!
Very politics!

[mestar]

Ah, the exciting $10,000 per Bitcoin in 2014.  Let's see what this means. 

If miners decide to sell all their mined Bitcoins, (or 50%), this is how much daily fresh money is needed on the exchanges for the price to be stable:

2014-2016 :   $36 million ($18 million if 50% sold)
2017-2020:   $18 million ($9 million)
2021-2024:   $9 million ($4.5 million)
etc.

So, if Bitcoin is $10,000 in 2014, good luck in finding that daily tens of millions dollars.

hardly anyone sells, you looking at 10% ~ 1% of that.

Wait until the difficulty catches up, which would be, at this rate of growth, in about 3 to 7 months.  Then miners will have to sell, because electricity bills.

[aminorex]

2014-2016 :   $36 million ($18 million if 50% sold)

hardly anyone sells, you looking at 10% ~ 1% of that.

Wait until the difficulty catches up, which would be, at this rate of growth, in about 3 to 7 months.  Then miners will have to sell, because electricity bills.

Using fiatleak as an estimator, about $6mm flowing in daily at present.   Now 10k starts to seem pretty achievable.  I think the psychology of the historical spike pattern and the characteristic viral distribution curve militate for 3-5k in 2014, however.  10k in 2015.

[notme]

2014-2016 :   $36 million ($18 million if 50% sold)

hardly anyone sells, you looking at 10% ~ 1% of that.

Wait until the difficulty catches up, which would be, at this rate of growth, in about 3 to 7 months.  Then miners will have to sell, because electricity bills.

Using fiatleak as an estimator, about $6mm flowing in daily at present.   Now 10k starts to seem pretty achievable.  I think the psychology of the historical spike pattern and the characteristic viral distribution curve militate for 3-5k in 2014, however.  10k in 2015.

If there is $6mm flowing in, there is $6mm flowing out.  What matters is what leaves the exchanges and what winds up back on the books.  Only the exchanges have this information.

[mestar]

Using fiatleak as an estimator, about $6mm flowing in daily at present.   Now 10k starts to seem pretty achievable.  I think the psychology of the historical spike pattern and the characteristic viral distribution curve militate for 3-5k in 2014, however.  10k in 2015.

You don't understand the full seriousness of the situation.

Bubbles form and bubbles deflate on their own.  Bitcoin price is at $800 currently exactly because people think that it will be $5k even this year.  Once you remove this belief, perhaps if price goes nowhere for 6 months (or even worse, starts to fall), you remove this reason to buy.  Also, people on the sidelines start to sell.

Bitcoin inflation has this nasty property that some part of it hammers the exchanges.  This part is currently growing, but not as fast as it should, because of the preordering delays and scams in the mining hardware part.  But, once difficulty reaches some kind of equilibrium, you get the situation where you need fresh money just for the price to stay the same. 

This, combined with the bubble bursting scenario, makes a nasty situation, and Bitcoin losing 90% of value should not be surprising. (it happened once before).

[Holliday]

Bitcoin inflation has this nasty property that some part of it hammers the exchanges.  This part is currently growing, but not as fast as it should, because of the preordering delays and scams in the mining hardware part.  But, once difficulty reaches some kind of equilibrium, you get the situation where you need fresh money just for the price to stay the same. 

When the difficulty is constantly increasing (a situation we've been in for a while), the amount of coins being mined is greater than it would be if the difficulty stabilizes (no new hashing power added to the network).

In other words, there is more fresh money required for the exchange rate to stay the same while the difficulty is increasing, as it has been for quite some time. Once it stabilizes, the amount of coins created daily will decrease to the target, and less will need to be purchased in order to stay at the same exchange rate.

It's hard to tell from your statement whether you understand that or not.

[keithers]

The multilevel marketing guys will take it mainstream this year. Its going to be awesome to watch.

What do you mean by multilevel marketing guys?  which companies are you talking about?  Just curious because multi-level marketing is huge where i am from...

[Undone]

Bitcoin inflation has this nasty property that some part of it hammers the exchanges.  This part is currently growing, but not as fast as it should, because of the preordering delays and scams in the mining hardware part.  But, once difficulty reaches some kind of equilibrium, you get the situation where you need fresh money just for the price to stay the same. 

When the difficulty is constantly increasing (a situation we've been in for a while), the amount of coins being mined is greater than it would be if the difficulty stabilizes (no new hashing power added to the network).

Holliday...you understand what the difficulty recalculation actually does, don't you?

[domob]

Bitcoin inflation has this nasty property that some part of it hammers the exchanges.  This part is currently growing, but not as fast as it should, because of the preordering delays and scams in the mining hardware part.  But, once difficulty reaches some kind of equilibrium, you get the situation where you need fresh money just for the price to stay the same. 

When the difficulty is constantly increasing (a situation we've been in for a while), the amount of coins being mined is greater than it would be if the difficulty stabilizes (no new hashing power added to the network).

Holliday...you understand what the difficulty recalculation actually does, don't you?

I think he does.  If you doubt that, are you sure you understand it?  When the difficulty increases, then blocks are mined with increasing speed until the next adjustment, which happens earlier than two weeks (because of the difficulty increase).  Thus there are indeed more coins mined per unit time in this case as to the 'planned' 2016 blocks per two weeks (since the 2016 block period takes less than two weeks to be finished).