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Author Topic: Difficulty Should Be Falling Faster  (Read 3853 times)
jjiimm_64
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September 14, 2011, 03:38:04 PM
 #21

in the end, you'd have a net gain of what?

zero

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September 14, 2011, 04:22:59 PM
 #22

also, if the difficulty was to drop much faster, then you would also end up with an increase just as fast. presumably from all those who would get right back in with lower difficulty.
It seems likely that there is less chance that people will stop mining in the high difficulty periods and start in the low periods if the changes comes frequently. If the difficulty starts fluctuating like it does with namecoins the cycle will be self reinforcing. A noticable drop in difficulty will make people add more than the current amount of mining power. When the difficulty change comes it will increase to more than the current amount, making it even less profitable than it is now. That makes the next difficulty drop even larger, and the next increase larger than the first. With many days between the changes instead of hours it is much easier to adapt to this cycle of turning miners on and off.
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September 14, 2011, 04:39:41 PM
 #23

imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.

We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.

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CanaryInTheMine
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September 14, 2011, 04:45:12 PM
 #24

imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.

We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.

Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?

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ElectricMucus
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September 14, 2011, 04:49:35 PM
 #25

imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.

We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.

Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
Each difficulty decrease was lower in magnitude than the last one both in absolute and relative magnitudes. The next one would be smaller than the network variance over the expected time period. Sorry that is all I can give you, but I think it is significant enough to draw a conclusion.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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September 14, 2011, 05:51:14 PM
 #26

I think difficulty will continue to increase for the following reason: mining will shift off people doing it deliberately, on to somebody else's dime.  That includes miners mining in places where electricity is included in the rent, or where the mining is done on somebody else's computer without their knowledge (including botnets and "browser mining").  And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating.

Didn't I just see a posting in here from a game author wondering how he could embed a Bitcoin miner into his GPU-intensive game without taking away from graphics performance?

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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September 14, 2011, 06:01:49 PM
 #27

Yep,
Quote
And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating.
The weather is a changin' in the good ol' USA! Cold fronts, rain, soon snow, and me warming by the ice-blue glow of my miners. Ahhh, a little slice of heaven right there. Really, what else could anybody want?

0100110101110010010000100110100101110100010000110110111101101001011011100010111 0011000110110111101101101
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Mike Caldwell
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September 14, 2011, 06:06:44 PM
 #28

Yep,
Quote
And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating.
The weather is a changin' in the good ol' USA! Cold fronts, rain, soon snow, and me warming by the ice-blue glow of my miners. Ahhh, a little slice of heaven right there. Really, what else could anybody want?

Except that I believe most homes in the US are heated by natural gas because it costs about 1/3 as much for the same amount of heat.  So it'll work for some people, but won't be cost effective for others if they have to compete with miners for whom cost is no concern.  At least however the electricity is cheaper in many places in the winter compared to the summer.  All my miners are off, by the way... BTC much easier for me to acquire just by buying it.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
bonker
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September 14, 2011, 08:12:02 PM
 #29



Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?

I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here!

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CanaryInTheMine
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September 14, 2011, 08:16:55 PM
 #30

imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.

We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.

Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
Each difficulty decrease was lower in magnitude than the last one both in absolute and relative magnitudes. The next one would be smaller than the network variance over the expected time period. Sorry that is all I can give you, but I think it is significant enough to draw a conclusion.

Can you type up some numbers and post here to show this?

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CanaryInTheMine
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September 14, 2011, 08:18:02 PM
 #31

Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here!
Smiley

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Dargo
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September 16, 2011, 03:12:33 AM
 #32



Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?

I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here!

Please people, if you are going to be unscientific, do it robustly!  Wink
Chucksta
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September 16, 2011, 07:10:59 AM
 #33



Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?

I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here!

Please people, if you are going to be unscientific, do it robustly!  Wink

LOL Smiley
ElectricMucus
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September 17, 2011, 11:16:26 AM
 #34

imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.

We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.

Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
Each difficulty decrease was lower in magnitude than the last one both in absolute and relative magnitudes. The next one would be smaller than the network variance over the expected time period. Sorry that is all I can give you, but I think it is significant enough to draw a conclusion.

Can you type up some numbers and post here to show this?
I don't really care about it that much to do this Smiley

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worldinacoin
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September 17, 2011, 12:09:14 PM
 #35

I mine 90% for the fun of it.  So if the prices decrease, it is a minus factor but not much, I enjoy bitcoin as a hobby.  Maybe those who are doing it for the money may be dropping off.  But it depends as long as variable costs is still lower than the bitcoin prices miners will continue.
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