ElectricMucus
Legendary
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Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
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September 14, 2011, 04:39:41 PM |
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imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
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CanaryInTheMine
Donator
Legendary
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Activity: 2352
Merit: 1060
between a rock and a block!
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September 14, 2011, 04:45:12 PM |
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imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion? |
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ElectricMucus
Legendary
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Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
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September 14, 2011, 04:49:35 PM |
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imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion? Each difficulty decrease was lower in magnitude than the last one both in absolute and relative magnitudes. The next one would be smaller than the network variance over the expected time period. Sorry that is all I can give you, but I think it is significant enough to draw a conclusion. |
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casascius
Mike Caldwell
VIP
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1136
The Casascius 1oz 10BTC Silver Round (w/ Gold B)
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September 14, 2011, 05:51:14 PM |
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I think difficulty will continue to increase for the following reason: mining will shift off people doing it deliberately, on to somebody else's dime. That includes miners mining in places where electricity is included in the rent, or where the mining is done on somebody else's computer without their knowledge (including botnets and "browser mining"). And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating.
Didn't I just see a posting in here from a game author wondering how he could embed a Bitcoin miner into his GPU-intensive game without taking away from graphics performance?
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Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable. I never believe them. If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins. I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion. Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice. Don't keep coins online. Use paper or hardware wallets instead.
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Mr.Bitcoin
Newbie
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Activity: 34
Merit: 0
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September 14, 2011, 06:01:49 PM |
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Yep, And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating. The weather is a changin' in the good ol' USA! Cold fronts, rain, soon snow, and me warming by the ice-blue glow of my miners. Ahhh, a little slice of heaven right there. Really, what else could anybody want? |
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casascius
Mike Caldwell
VIP
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1136
The Casascius 1oz 10BTC Silver Round (w/ Gold B)
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September 14, 2011, 06:06:44 PM |
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Yep, And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating. The weather is a changin' in the good ol' USA! Cold fronts, rain, soon snow, and me warming by the ice-blue glow of my miners. Ahhh, a little slice of heaven right there. Really, what else could anybody want? Except that I believe most homes in the US are heated by natural gas because it costs about 1/3 as much for the same amount of heat. So it'll work for some people, but won't be cost effective for others if they have to compete with miners for whom cost is no concern. At least however the electricity is cheaper in many places in the winter compared to the summer. All my miners are off, by the way... BTC much easier for me to acquire just by buying it. |
Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable. I never believe them. If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins. I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion. Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice. Don't keep coins online. Use paper or hardware wallets instead.
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bonker (OP)
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September 14, 2011, 08:12:02 PM |
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Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here! |
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CanaryInTheMine
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1060
between a rock and a block!
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September 14, 2011, 08:16:55 PM |
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imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion? Each difficulty decrease was lower in magnitude than the last one both in absolute and relative magnitudes. The next one would be smaller than the network variance over the expected time period. Sorry that is all I can give you, but I think it is significant enough to draw a conclusion. Can you type up some numbers and post here to show this? |
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CanaryInTheMine
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1060
between a rock and a block!
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September 14, 2011, 08:18:02 PM |
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Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here!  |
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Dargo
Legendary
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Activity: 1820
Merit: 1000
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September 16, 2011, 03:12:33 AM |
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Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here! Please people, if you are going to be unscientific, do it robustly!  |
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Chucksta
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September 16, 2011, 07:10:59 AM |
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Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here! Please people, if you are going to be unscientific, do it robustly! LOL |
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ElectricMucus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
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September 17, 2011, 11:16:26 AM |
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imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion? Each difficulty decrease was lower in magnitude than the last one both in absolute and relative magnitudes. The next one would be smaller than the network variance over the expected time period. Sorry that is all I can give you, but I think it is significant enough to draw a conclusion. Can you type up some numbers and post here to show this? I don't really care about it that much to do this |
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worldinacoin
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September 17, 2011, 12:09:14 PM |
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I mine 90% for the fun of it. So if the prices decrease, it is a minus factor but not much, I enjoy bitcoin as a hobby. Maybe those who are doing it for the money may be dropping off. But it depends as long as variable costs is still lower than the bitcoin prices miners will continue.
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