Mining calculations using TheGenesisBlock

[gigacoiner]

I tried using TheGenesisBlock site to check the mining calculations. 
I am looking a different miners and according to the site none of them will be making any profits. 
Am I doing something wrong? 

For example:
http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/a/f381d31d50
http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/a/8aa59a9fcb

[An amorous cow-herder]

I tried using TheGenesisBlock site to check the mining calculations. 
I am looking a different miners and according to the site none of them will be making any profits. 
Am I doing something wrong? 

No.
There is the hope that several companies wont deliver on time and that exponential difficulty growth will stop by then. But otherwise bitcoin mining is turning into a fools game. As the saying goes, if theres a gold rush, sell shovels.

[tacotime]

I stopped buying hardware with bitfury october

Wait until start dumping their 55 and 28 nm in a few months and then start buying it up en masse when it's cheap and actually makes sense

[cp1]

No, you did it right.

[ujka]

You did it right, yes.
But that calculator uses constant monthly 88% diff increase and in dec 2014 there is that diff of ~2000000 (M). Or in hashrate ~15000 ph. Hashrate is at 15 ph now. So, 1000 x increase? Or 14985 ph to be added. Yes, just 5'000'000 neptunes.  

Calculator almost doubled difficulty every month. That's exponential growth. And there is one old exponential story:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

Exponential stories

Rice on a chessboard
See also: Wheat and chessboard problem
According to an old legend, vizier Sissa Ben Dahir presented an Indian King Sharim with a beautiful, hand-made chessboard. The king asked what he would like in return for his gift and the courtier surprised the king by asking for one grain of rice on the first square, two grains on the second, four grains on the third etc. The king readily agreed and asked for the rice to be brought. All went well at first, but the requirement for 2 n − 1 grains on the nth square demanded over a million grains on the 21st square, more than a million million (aka trillion) on the 41st and there simply was not enough rice in the whole world for the final squares. (From Swirski, 2006)[5]

[An amorous cow-herder]

You did it right, yes.
But that calculator uses constant monthly 88% diff increase and in dec 2014 there is that diff of ~2000000 (M). Or in hashrate ~15000 ph. Hashrate is at 15 ph now. So, 1000 x increase? Or 14985 ph to be added. Yes, just 5'000'000 neptunes.  

You are assuming the coming mining gear wont be more efficient. A neptune has about 500x 50x the hashing power of a bfl single. So, if the next gen is 500x 50x as efficient as well that wouldnt be like 5M Neptunes but only 10k 100k next gen miners.
But you are right, exponential growth cant be kept up for ever, the chips are getting close to state of the art. 20nm ist great, but 14nm is the next step ...
[Edit]Corrected the numbers [/edit]

[ujka]

Neptune is NEXT gen hardware for 2014. I don't see 14nm here. Yet.

But yes, i do expect that new hardware this year will be more efficient, just not by that much.
Consider this:
avalon, 110nm, 0.07th/s
bitmain, 55nm, 0.2th/s
jupiter, 28nm, 0.6th/s
terraminer, 28nm, 2th/s
neptune, 20nm, 3th/s

[cp1]

You did it right, yes.
But that calculator uses constant monthly 88% diff increase and in dec 2014 there is that diff of ~2000000 (M). Or in hashrate ~15000 ph. Hashrate is at 15 ph now. So, 1000 x increase? Or 14985 ph to be added. Yes, just 5'000'000 neptunes.  

Calculator almost doubled difficulty every month. That's exponential growth. And there is one old exponential story:

How long have people been saying the difficulty can't keep increasing at this rate?

[ujka]

About six months 

[An amorous cow-herder]

Neptune is NEXT gen hardware for 2014. I don't see 14nm here. Yet.

But yes, i do expect that new hardware this year will be more efficient, just not by that much.
Consider this:
avalon, 110nm, 0.07th/s
bitmain, 55nm, 0.2th/s
jupiter, 28nm, 0.6th/s
terraminer, 28nm, 2th/s
neptune, 20nm, 3th/s

Well, you are forgetting one thing there, those rigs are priced very differently. The actual stat to go by is W/GH, otherwise you could have just bought more of the old equipment instead to get the same hashing power.
Even an old USB block erupter gets you 7.4W/GH, and the best equipment on preorder (Prosperro black arrow) gets you 0.5W/GH, "just" a factor of 15. Propably the margins on mining equipment are still insane.
Combine that with the fact that more efficient equipment can be made you can expect the vendors to roll out quite a lot. Maybe exponential growth will stop sometime this year, but i wouldnt count on it ...