Gox Trading at 15% premium over everywhere else!

[MatTheCat]

WTF is going on over there!?

Yes, just taking one look at the Gox chart and comparing with practically any other exchange tells you that the trading there is almost 100% robotic. Perhaps there are actually very little real traders still using the exchange and they have their robots pass Bitcoins between wallets in an order to stay relelvant.

Also, Gox is now trading around 15% higher than Bitstamp and all the other exchanges which these days tend to hover around the same levels. This has got to be the record high for a premium on Gox. What are they playing at? Gox is the only exchange where the resistance level of the previous high has been taken out and has the only near term bullish looking chart.

Is someone at Gox trying to force Bitcoin higher (and failing miserably)?

Are they one the verge of collapse and having a big fkn blow-off, I mean a 15% premium that isn't being taken out by arbitrage takers speaks volumes for the exchanges insolvency, I would have thought?

[Ibian]

This... has been going on for months. Why is this suddenly news?

[N12]

The record high was 30% or even higher (briefly), I recall. This is nothing new, and the premium has mysteriously drifted down or up and stayed embedded in one area for longer times.

There was a chart portraying the % difference between exchanges over time. Anyone got it?

[fonzie]

@MattheCat

Yes yes and yes, i assume that Gox is going to go down once and forever in the next weeks , months. People with loads of money over there are trying to get their money out by pushing the price high and sell ing it on other exchanges. That is most likely the reason why there seems to be unlimited supply available on Stamp.

[MatTheCat]

The record high was 30% or even higher (briefly), I recall. This is nothing new, and the premium has mysteriously drifted down or up and stayed embedded in one area for longer times.

There was a chart portraying the % difference between exchanges over time. Anyone got it?

Ok, forgive my ignorance as I have only really been paying attention to chart developments for the past couple of months.

...but certainly during the run up, Gox would be between 8-6% ahead of Stamp. Gox peaked at 1240, Stamp was 1160.

[Tzupy]

The premium over Bitstamp may increase above 15% if a downtrend will prevail, because of the pesky fiat withdrawal issue from Gox.
This extra fiat on Gox results in buying pressure, and as you correctly observed, it's the only one exchange that looks bullish.

[solex]

The record high was 30% or even higher (briefly), I recall. This is nothing new, and the premium has mysteriously drifted down or up and stayed embedded in one area for longer times.

There was a chart portraying the % difference between exchanges over time. Anyone got it?

Ok, forgive my ignorance as I have only really been paying attention to chart developments for the past couple of months.

...but certainly during the run up, Gox would be between 8-6% ahead of Stamp. Gox peaked at 1240, Stamp was 1160.

Was 10%  diff for a long time, now 15%, the market is not pricing in any improvement in Gox's position.

Full of horror stories,,,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.0;topicseen

[MatTheCat]

Was 10%  diff for a long time, now 15%, the market is not pricing in any improvement in Gox's position.

Full of horror stories,,,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.0;topicseen

Gox looks like it is going down.

Market is basically telling everyone that they aint getting their money back from Gox and with those 15% premiums, anyone trying to extract their money now is going to take a 15% haircut. Ouch.

My brother has an account on Gox and if I thought this premium would come back down to normal 6-8% levels, then I would have a pretty decent arbitraging opportunity here myself. (Bitcoin to Gox, sell on Gox, wait for premiums to lower, Gox-bucks back into Bitcoin, Bitcoin cashed out on Stamp)

...but would it be arbitrage, or simply 'losing money'?

[paulifa123]

Any thoughts on the effect on BTC price if they do go down? 

[fonzie]

A lot of bad press at least. Investors might be scared to deposit money on other exchanges.

[solex]

Was 10%  diff for a long time, now 15%, the market is not pricing in any improvement in Gox's position.

Full of horror stories,,,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.0;topicseen

Gox looks like it is going down.

Market is basically telling everyone that they aint getting their money back from Gox and with those 15% premiums, anyone trying to extract their money now is going to take a 15% haircut. Ouch.

My brother has an account on Gox and if I thought this premium would come back down to normal 6-8% levels, then I would have a pretty decent arbitraging opportunity here myself. (Bitcoin to Gox, sell on Gox, wait for premiums to lower, Gox-bucks back into Bitcoin, Bitcoin cashed out on Stamp)

...but would it be arbitrage, or simply 'losing money'?

What no one knows is the final result of the US govt restrictions on MtGox. They may come through it, they may eventually close, which may also happen suddenly.
The problem is that MtGox has prior form for hanging onto money that, allegedly, should be handed over to others:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=260225.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=233666.0

Any thoughts on the effect on BTC price if they do go down?  

They were 80% of the market in mid-2011 and were shut for 8 days. The market continued from the prior price level. Now they at 8% of the market with little effect on the BTC value.

[pera]

gox vs stamp

[ArticMine]

There is another factor to take into consideration namely both AvaTrade and Plus500 write Bitcoin CFD's based on the MTGox price. AvaTrade just relaxed the margin requirements for Bitcoin from 10% to 5% today. This could account for the increase in the spread between MTGox and Bitstamp

[damnek]

There is another factor to take into consideration namely both AvaTrade and Plus500 write Bitcoin CFD's based on the MTGox price. AvaTrade just relaxed the margin requirements for Bitcoin from 10% to 5% today. This could account for the increase in the spread between MTGox and Bitstamp

Interesting. Thanks for the info.

[mp420]

Gox isn't going down any soon. They're still making fucktons of money every day from trading fees, so even if they've fucked up everything very badly, they'll probably survive.

Chances are any USD withdrawals are going to take a long time though. There are millions of USD in the queue waiting for Gox to find a bank that will send them.

[DPoS]

Gox isn't going down any soon. They're still making fucktons of money every day from trading fees, so even if they've fucked up everything very badly, they'll probably survive.

Chances are any USD withdrawals are going to take a long time though. There are millions of USD in the queue waiting for Gox to find a bank that will send them.

surprised that coinbase doesn't provide this conduit since they are already deep into bitstamp..  the first broker that can make the circular trade will kill on the arb as they close it

[antoineph]

as long as the Gox premium exists, it's an indication that fresh money is not coming in much since new money would obviously go to the other exchanges.

[MatTheCat]

Chances are any USD withdrawals are going to take a long time though. There are millions of USD in the queue waiting for Gox to find a bank that will send them.

Wonder why they can't find a bank to send money that Gox owes to its customers?

Only reason I can think of is that Gox doesn't actually have the money to send. Certainly, anytime that a bank has refused to make a transaction on my behalf it has generally been due to a lack of allocated funds in account.

That wouldn't be the reason by any chance would it!?

[notme]

You have it right that automated trades make up at least half of most trades on MtGox, but I believe you are wrong on motivation.  They are not doing it to keep MtGox relevant.  The trade initiators, be they human or robotic, are mining MtGox.  You see, Gox, being the first exchange with several API options is a gold mine of poorly written bots run by early adopters with massive coin stashes.  The trick is maximizing the Bitcoin you get out of them before you ramp the price once again.  Of course, as a programmatic trader who understands this dynamic, you can overweight your buys to compensate when the risk of bullishness is too high.  The tighter we coil here, the more buy pressure we will see if we break up.

[MatTheCat]

You have it right that automated trades make up at least half of most trades on MtGox, but I believe you are wrong on motivation.  They are not doing it to keep MtGox relevant.  The trade initiators, be they human or robotic, are mining MtGox.  You see, Gox, being the first exchange with several API options is a gold mine of poorly written bots run by early adopters with massive coin stashes.  The trick is maximizing the Bitcoin you get out of them before you ramp the price once again.  Of course, as a programmatic trader who understands this dynamic, you can overweight your buys to compensate when the risk of bullishness is too high.  The tighter we coil here, the more buy pressure we will see if we break up.

All that goes a bit over my head, but I understand the principles of frustrating buying power in order to give upsurge added momentum when you finally take the flood gates away. Problem with what is happening now at Gox is that the automated trading is in complete denial of the prevailing market sentiment. Gox charts are screaming break out whereas everywhere else is saying break down. As you know, whenever a minority is in denial of the aggregate sentiment in a market then it generally means bad news for them..........or perhaps not in a ring fenced market like Gox where people who want to get liquid have no option but to buy Bitcoins at inflated price and take a haircut converting them on respectable exchanges such as Bitstamp.....my brother done just that today as it happens swallowing a 14% hit in the process.