Great promotions in this pool!
I notice the Estimated Payout graph totally changed over the last 24ish hours; previously it showed a slowly dropping expected value when my miners were idle (which I think made sense with the payout calculation method), but now it's like it's averaged over time and doesn't make as much sense to me. Are you able to explain how it works now? Thanks!
Thanks for your feedback. The Double Geometric Method with our settings your expected value per share is under the impact of an permanent exponential decay.
This means if you generate a share right now, it will loose it's value as soon more and more shares were generated. Of course the higher the hashrate of the pool, the decay will happen faster, because more share per second were submitted by the pool. Compared with PPLNS this lowers your variance because you don't have to be afraid, that your share will become instant worthless as soon as N more shares are generated.
Here is a graph, which compares our method with PPLNS:
Maybe you noticed, that the area below each curve is the same. This indicates that the total average payout is the same, only the distribution is different.
The following graph shows, that payout for you shares happens during over millions of generated shares and several rounds, compared to PPLNS where the full payout happens when a block is found.
I would like to thank Meni Rosenfeld, who invented this method, and made these visuals possible.
So, to answer your question, if the decay of your past shares is even to fresh generated shares and your graph is not going up, it could be because the hashrate in the past was higher than the hashrate you got right now. It really depends on some more circumstances like pool hashrate for example.
Hope this brings some light in the dark.