Plans for mining? READ THIS FIRST !!

[tmp_account]

SEE THE WEBSITE: http://btcinfo.co.nf

Hey,

I've set up some numbers about Bitcoin, as you can see below. These numbers rely on the fact that there is 25 TH/sec equipment for mining (!!) and there's a growth in difficulty of 20% every 12 days (estimated on the historical facts - The previous/historical facts of bitcoin (source: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty) are shown below my own generated numbers). Please keep in mind that the growth may vary because many ASICS are shipping. Time has been calculated with the bitcoin-calculator of wolframalpha.com

So, if you're into mining right now and have some decent equipment, you can make some nice "money" for a few upcoming months.
It will probably end in july, then the difficulty will go up too much to make it pretty profitable.

The point is, if some guys have made some pre-orders of some ASIC of 500 GH/sec or like 2 TH/sec, they probably get it delivered in june/july and won't make any profit anymore because their hardware is kinda obsolete. ASIC manufacturers should come up (read: Really FAST) with new hardware to make mining profitable in the future, as it will take more than three months to mine a single block in the end of august with 25 TH/sec.

Note: If you're a miner with 100 GH/sec or sth like that, then please keep in mind that I'm talking about numbers of 25 TH/sec. Please relate that to the hours / days given below (july will take about 55 days with 25 TH/sec, that's 1375 days with 1000 GH/sec, which is almost 4 years .. just for one block).

For those guys who want to see some graphics, go to: http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

** I'm not saying that BTC is crap, it's just that the industry needs to improve mining hardware in the future to make it profitable for miners **

SEE THE WEBSITE: http://btcinfo.co.nf

1. Date
2. TH/sec
3. Difficulty
4. Growth in %
5. Growth in numbers
6. Hours for a block
7. Days for a block

1              2       3                      4       5                      6         7

23-1-2014    25    1.789.546.951   0%   0                   85,4      3,6
4-2-2014   25   2.150.113.338   20%   357.909.390   102,6      4,3
16-2-2014   25   2.580.136.006   20%   430.022.668   123,1      5,1
28-2-2014    25   3.096.163.207   20%   516.027.201   147,8      6,2
12-3-2014   25   3.715.395.848   20%   619.232.641   177,3      7,4
24-3-2014   25   4.458.475.018   20%   743.079.170   212,8      8,9
5-4-2014   25   5.350.170.021   20%   891.695.004   255,3      10,6
17-4-2014    25   6.420.204.025   20%   1.070.034.004   306,4      12,8
29-4-2014   25   7.704.244.831   20%   1.284.040.805   367,7      15,3
11-5-2014   25   9.245.093.797   20%   1.540.848.966   441,2      18,4
23-5-2014    25   11.094.112.556   20%   1.849.018.759   529,4      22,1
4-6-2014   25   13.312.935.067   20%   2.218.822.511   635,3      26,5
16-6-2014  25   15.975.522.081   20%   2.662.587.013   762,4      31,8
28-6-2014   25   19.170.626.497   20%   3.195.104.416   914,9      38,1
10-7-2014   25   23.004.751.796   20%   3.834.125.299   1098      45,8
22-7-2014   25   27.605.702.155   20%   4.600.950.359   1317      54,9
3-8-2014    25   33.126.842.586   20%   5.521.140.431   1581      65,9
15-8-2014   25   39.752.211.104   20%   6.625.368.517   1897      79,0
27-8-2014    25   47.702.653.324   20%   7.950.442.221   2276      94,8
8-9-2014   25   57.243.183.989   20%   9.540.530.665   2732      113,8
20-9-2014   25   68.691.820.787   20%   11.448.636.798   3728      155,3
2-10-2014    25   82.430.184.945   20%   13.738.364.157   3934      163,9
14-10-2014   25   98.916.221.933   20%   16.486.036.989   4720      196,7
26-10-2014    25   118.699.466.320   20%   19.783.244.387   5665      236,0
7-11-2014   25   142.439.359.584   20%   23.739.893.264   6797      283,2
19-11-2014 25   170.927.231.501   20%   28.487.871.917   8157      339,9
1-12-2014   25   205.112.677.801   20%   34.185.446.300   9788      407,8
13-12-2014    25   246.135.213.361   20%   41.022.535.560   11746   489,4
25-12-2014    25   295.362.256.034   20%   49.227.042.672   14095   587,3
6-1-2014   25    354.434.707.240   20%   59.072.451.207   16914   704,8
18-1-2015   25   425.321.648.688   20%   70.886.941.448   20297   845,7
30-1-2015    25   510.385.978.426   20%   85.064.329.738   24357   1014,9

Historical overview of bitcoin:
(source: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty)

1. Date
2. Difficulty
3. Change
4. Hash Rate

1                       2                      3               4
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013    1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013    707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013    510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013    148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013    86,933,018           32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013    65,750,060           29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013    50,810,339           35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766           19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013           31,256,961           19.47%   223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013           26,162,876           22.63%   187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013   21,335,329           10.32%   152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013    19,339,258           23.92%   138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013   15,605,633           28.41%   111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013    12,153,412           8.64%   86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013   11,187,257           11.03%   80,082 GH/s
Apr 30 2013    10,076,293           12.28%   72,129 GH/s
Apr 17 2013   8,974,296           16.96%   64,241 GH/s
Apr 05 2013    7,673,000           14.59%   54,925 GH/s
Mar 24 2013   6,695,826           38.13%   47,931 GH/s
Mar 14 2013    4,847,647           10.98%   34,701 GH/s
Mar 01 2013   4,367,876           19.63%   31,266 GH/s
Feb 18 2013   3,651,012           11.47%   26,135 GH/s
Feb 05 2013    3,275,465           10.33%   23,447 GH/s
Jan 23 2013   2,968,775           -8.64%   21,251 GH/s
Jan 08 2013   3,249,550           9.06%   23,261 GH/s
Dec 26 2012   2,979,637           -11.59%   21,329 GH/s
Dec 10 2012   3,370,182           -2.00%   24,125 GH/s
Nov 26 2012   3,438,909            2.08%   24,617 GH/s
Nov 12 2012   3,368,767           1.95%   24,115 GH/s
Oct 30 2012   3,304,356           7.55%   23,654 GH/s
Oct 16 2012   3,072,322           0.58%   21,993 GH/s
Oct 03 2012   3,054,628           6.65%   21,866 GH/s
Sep 19 2012   2,864,141           6.31%   20,502 GH/s
Sep 06 2012   2,694,048          10.38%   19,285 GH/s
Aug 25 2012   2,440,643          11.40%   17,471 GH/s
Aug 12 2012   2,190,866           7.57%   15,683 GH/s
Jul 30 2012           2,036,671           9.12%   14,579 GH/s
Jul 17 2012           1,866,391           6.56%   13,360 GH/s
Jul 04 2012           1,751,455           1.44%   12,537 GH/s
Jun 20 2012   1,726,567           9.06%   12,359 GH/s
Jun 07 2012   1,583,178          -0.50%   11,333 GH/s

[tmp_account]

222 views and no reply? come on! ;-)

[gpucoolingmethod]

what replies do you expect?

my reply interesting

[sabreiib]

they said the  btc exchange fee can be provided to miners, is it right?

After July, human being could not produce profitable mining rig after paying the power cost.

 

[Sonny]

they said the  btc exchange fee can be provided to miners, is it right?

You mean bitcoin transaction fee, right?
If so, the answer is yes.
When miners find a block, they can the block reward (currently 25btc) + tx fees (for all tx included in that block).

[sabreiib]

But how many  tx fee will available to miners? For example, in July 2014, 3Th/s(KNC neptune) will be hardly profitable in getting rewards(25 btc/block) , could tx fee be enough to save neptune from being outdated?

If 20nm KNC neptune is profitless in middle of 2014, so will the 2015-2016 16nm miners because the latter is merly 30% better in hash/Watt.

[point08]

Is this view based on individual mining or pooled mining?

Am watching each pools hashing power jump daily so I assume this is based on individual pools?

[Zangy]

Is this view based on individual mining or pooled mining?

Am watching each pools hashing power jump daily so I assume this is based on individual pools?

I've seen these sorts of threads before, and the factor that always seems to be missing is the BTC/FIAT exchange rate, which presumably as BTC's become more difficult to mine, become easier to "buy" hence increase demand for BTC, hence increase the value, which makes mining back more profitable etc... merry-go-round...

I also think the Bitcoin model will start becoming more transaction fee based to reward the miner and less focused on BTC block-solving generation...

Then again, I'm quite new to all of this... could be talking a load of codswollop...

[Blozix]

they said the  btc exchange fee can be provided to miners, is it right?

After July, human being could not produce profitable mining rig after paying the power cost.

 

No, it will be profitable

[Sonny]

I've seen these sorts of threads before, and the factor that always seems to be missing is the BTC/FIAT exchange rate

It depends...

Some people are buying hardware / hashrate using bitcoin directly, and thus the btc price is irrelevant here.
You just pay btc, and receive btc later on.

If the deal is in USD (or other fiat), and the profitability comes from the expected uprising bitcoin price, then you can just buy btc directly.

[Omikifuse]

I've seen these sorts of threads before, and the factor that always seems to be missing is the BTC/FIAT exchange rate

It depends...

Some people are buying hardware / hashrate using bitcoin directly, and thus the btc price is irrelevant here.
You just pay btc, and receive btc later on.

If the deal is in USD (or other fiat), and the profitability comes from the expected uprising bitcoin price, then you can just buy btc directly.

Agree, I don't understand why people always assume BTC/FIAT exchange rate when they can just buy BTC and not miners..

[Sonny]

I've seen these sorts of threads before, and the factor that always seems to be missing is the BTC/FIAT exchange rate

It depends...

Some people are buying hardware / hashrate using bitcoin directly, and thus the btc price is irrelevant here.
You just pay btc, and receive btc later on.

If the deal is in USD (or other fiat), and the profitability comes from the expected uprising bitcoin price, then you can just buy btc directly.

Agree, I don't understand why people always assume BTC/FIAT exchange rate when they can just buy BTC and not miners..

Me neither.
Some say it is hard and time consuming to buy bitcoin.
But, buying hardware and mining bitcoin would be 10x harder and more time consuming.

I do agree that mining bitcoin is fun.
If you want to mine for fun, go ahead. But, if you want profit, think again and try some profit calculator before buying anything.

[dbbit]

ASIC manufacturers should come up (read: Really FAST) with new hardware to make mining profitable in the future, as it will take more than three months to mine a single block in the end of august with 25 TH/sec.

Umm...

It's because ASIC manufacturers come up with faster hardware that it takes more hardware to run blocks. If they don't come up with faster hardware the difficulty won't increase by much. If they come up with any faster hardware the difficulty will increase by even more.

It's not just a pre-set thing.


PS: Your numbers are trying to assert that there will be the equivalent of 1.6 million KNC Neptunes being released over the next year. That would sure be a neat trick.

[Sonny]

It's because ASIC manufacturers come up with faster hardware that it takes more hardware to run blocks. If they don't come up with faster hardware the difficulty won't increase by much. If they come up with any faster hardware the difficulty will increase by even more.

The miners are like the prisoners in the prisoners' dilemma.
If everyone only use their CPU to mine, no one need to design or buy an ASIC and spend a lot on electricity lol.


On the other hand, the ASIC manufacturers don't really care about the difficulty uprising as hell in the future.
Those companies take pre-orders, assembly the hardware to for testing (mining for themselves), and deliver the hardware to customers after enough testing (not much profit from mining).

[Zangy]

It's because ASIC manufacturers come up with faster hardware that it takes more hardware to run blocks. If they don't come up with faster hardware the difficulty won't increase by much. If they come up with any faster hardware the difficulty will increase by even more.

The miners are like the prisoners in the prisoners' dilemma.
If everyone only use their CPU to mine, no one need to design or buy an ASIC and spend a lot on electricity lol.

On the other hand, the ASIC manufacturers don't really care about the difficulty uprising as hell in the future.
Those companies take pre-orders, assembly the hardware to for testing (mining for themselves), and deliver the hardware to customers after enough testing (not much profit from mining).

Bitcoin mining, sadly, for the end user now in 2014 is not a profit making process in the short term, simple. I salute those individuals who got involved in the start, all in the timing folks.

With the possibly exception of LITECOIN, all other sh!tcoins are useless, IMO.

Long term, would depend on the uptake of BTC, the exchange rate and the transaction fee processing income.

The short term winners are the ASIC manufacturers and those individuals looking to flog their increasingly obsolete hardware at obscene prices preying on noobs/the uneducated... Go look on ebay for the amazing ludicrous prices some people are charging for obsolete ASIC's now...

[dbbit]

Bitcoin mining, sadly, for the end user now in 2014 is not a profit making process in the short term, simple. I salute those individuals who got involved in the start, all in the timing folks.

There has never been a general start time where buying mining hardware to mine with has been more beneficial than buying and holding Bitcoin.

Timing doesn't matter except for very tiny coincidental windows, which are as likely to happen now as before.


If you started off in 2010, a GPU to mine with would have costed you 100'000 BTC. You wouldn't have mined 100'000 BTC with it till now.
If you started off in 2011, a GPU to mine with would have costed you 10'000 BTC. You wouldn't have mined 10'000 BTC with it till now.
If you started off in 2012, a GPU to mine with would have costed you 1'000 BTC. You wouldn't have mined 1'000 BTC with it till now.
etc.

Just be glad you're not Iaszlo - first person to buy a Pizza - for a mere BTC 10'000. Just think about it - an $8 million Pizza.


That doesn't mean "DON'T MINE". Mining is fun. Mining is needed to make this whole thing work. But the assertion that "miners did better than buyers in them olden days", is a fallacy.

[Sonny]

Mining is fun. Mining is needed to make this whole thing work.
But the assertion that "miners did better than buyers in them olden days", is a fallacy.

Exactly.

[Zangy]

Mining is fun. Mining is needed to make this whole thing work.
But the assertion that "miners did better than buyers in them olden days", is a fallacy.

Exactly.

I totally agree, I love mining, love seeing the stats, being in a Pool etc... happy to be part of it all, even if its a tiny part