"Reports of my forum death have been greatly exaggerated" - chodpaba

[oda.krell]

It was a pleasure to read your analysis over the last year.

In case you guys didn't notice, Mr. (Mrs.?) chodpaba deleted most of his posts and threads. Not the first time that happened afaik, but it looks like it's pretty thorough this time.

Whatever your reasons for doing so, I know I am grateful for the time you spent on here. Your earnest desire to take a rigorous approach to TA was much appreciated.

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

That's sad to see... I've been mostly lurking here, but it was easy to identify chodpaba as one of the most notable and interesting people here on the forum. I didn't agree on all of chodpaba's postings, but they were always well founded and a good read.

Thanks for sharing your insight with us.

[seleme]

Who the hell is chodpaba, never noticed anyone named like that.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Oh no, I'm still here.

I just delete my posts periodically because I would prefer that others come to believe that my ideas are their own.

Why is the black lady from the matrix on a bitcoin forum?

[shmadz]

Oh no, I'm still here.

I just delete my posts periodically because I would prefer that others come to believe that my ideas are their own.

Isn't that strange? When reading your posts I often feel like you stole the ideas from me.. (a.k.a "you took the words right out of my mouth")

- glad to see that the funeral was premature.

[Rdeschain]

Oh no, I'm still here.

I just delete my posts periodically because I would prefer that others come to believe that my ideas are their own.

Why is the black lady from the matrix on a bitcoin forum?

Because the black lady from the matrix is called, "The Oracle"

I like it.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Oh no, I'm still here.

I just delete my posts periodically because I would prefer that others come to believe that my ideas are their own.

Why is the black lady from the matrix on a bitcoin forum?

Because the black lady from the matrix is called, "The Oracle"

I like it.

The actress who played her died and was replaced before the 3rd act.

*/ dark foreshadowing */

[Rdeschain]

Oh no, I'm still here.

I just delete my posts periodically because I would prefer that others come to believe that my ideas are their own.

Why is the black lady from the matrix on a bitcoin forum?

Because the black lady from the matrix is called, "The Oracle"

I like it.

The actress who played her died and was replaced before the 3rd act.

*/ dark foreshadowing */

but it's not about the actress. It's about the charachter she portrayed. Wait a minute....didn't the Oracle die in the matrix too (I can't remember)?

Crap

[BitcoinAshley]

Oh no, I'm still here.
I just delete my posts periodically because I would prefer that others come to believe that my ideas are their own.

Why is the black lady from the matrix on a bitcoin forum?

Because the black lady from the matrix is called, "The Oracle"
I like it.

The actress who played her died and was replaced before the 3rd act.
*/ dark foreshadowing */

but it's not about the actress. It's about the charachter she portrayed. Wait a minute....didn't the Oracle die in the matrix too (I can't remember)?

Crap

Obviously, this is a far more complex issue than just what chodpapa had for lunch yesterday

I mean, why chodpapa's posts were deleted.

[oda.krell]

Oh no, I'm still here.
I just delete my posts periodically because I would prefer that others come to believe that my ideas are their own.

Why is the black lady from the matrix on a bitcoin forum?

Because the black lady from the matrix is called, "The Oracle"
I like it.

The actress who played her died and was replaced before the 3rd act.
*/ dark foreshadowing */

but it's not about the actress. It's about the charachter she portrayed. Wait a minute....didn't the Oracle die in the matrix too (I can't remember)?

Crap

Obviously, this is a far more complex issue than just what chodpapa had for lunch yesterday

I mean, why chodpapa's posts were deleted.

Isn't it obvious? He knew too much. Those who set the BTC price (ancap space jews!) don't appreciate someone disclosing their fundamental price function, so they "advised" theymos to delete chodpaba's history.

[Adrian-x]

Obviously, this is a far more complex issue than just what chodpapa had for lunch yesterday

I mean, why chodpapa's posts were deleted.

Isn't it obvious? He knew too much. Those who set the BTC price (ancap space jews!) don't appreciate someone disclosing their fundamental price function, so they "advised" theymos to delete chodpaba's history.

LOL They hacked bitcointalk.org

Glad to see you are still here chodpada, the forum once lost Satosi.

[spiderbrain]

chodpaba you should post more, should we set up a temple like those for KARHU and The Whales?

[Melbustus]

...
I just delete my posts periodically because I would prefer that others come to believe that my ideas are their own.

Huh. Interesting. People definitely get more attached to their own ideas.

[bb113]

Chodpapa is good at analysis.

[GigaCoin]

so it's not goodbye anymore ? lol

[aminorex]

I'm still reeling from "ancap space jews".

Will you be sending BTC to Brewster Kahle to erase your posts from iarchive.org, Chodpaba?

[oda.krell]

There. Title adjusted. Glad he's still here.

Now predict the price for us, usdbtc monkey!

[shmadz]

There. Title adjusted. Glad he's still here.

Now predict the price for us, usdbtc monkey!

USD/BTC will follow an exponential growth path with periods of high volatility. Do not attempt to time-arbitrage USD/BTC, buy-and-hold, and DCA are better options. If you must trade, do try to learn beta-arbitrage and trade with a higher beta alt, or several. Keep an eye on the betas and beware of beta decay. This is all textbook stuff, you don't need me to do it.

There has been talk of inflation due to an explosion of alts. For now at least I really think Bitcoin inflation is all that matters, the rest can be treated as beta plays. Cryptos are still way early in the adoption phase, but keep an eye out for innovation tipping the balance between cryptos. Diversify. It is all pretty basic stuff really.

I am pessimistic about the prospects for many of the fiat exchanges.

Fascinating! I just yesterday closed all positions and moved my bitcoin off the exchanges. Normally I like to chip away at the volatility by providing liquidity on either end when the market is fluctuating. Of course this works much better during the oscillation period following a large move, not so great during a prolonged consolidation. I am getting the feeling there might be another large move soon, but I was feeling uncertain, so I decided to take the buy-and-hold approach.

Of course I'm speaking from confirmation bias, but your words make me feel better about my choice. Thank you.

[notme]

Hey Chodpaba, have you read Mandelbrot's book on markets: http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B004PYDBEO ?

If not, I would be interested in seeing how it influences your models.  Basically, he starts off with proving the normality assumption doesn't hold for the vast majority of financial data.  He then presents a model that can produce a random price series from a few parameters (which are market specific) that actually matches the experienced probabilities of various outsized events.  The normality assumption underestimates risk in markets, but Mandelbrot claims his model can more accurately estimate risk by fixing the distribution (fat tails) and distorting the time series (fast vs slow trading times).

[keystroke]

Glad to see this thread, I wondered what happened!