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Author Topic: What if MT Gox goes under?  (Read 2878 times)
BitcoinBobbeh (OP)
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January 24, 2014, 11:43:04 PM
 #1

There's a lot of talk going around about Gox facing a shutdown in the forseeable future. While I don't think this is very likely, there has been a sharp decline in its use and effectiveness as an exchange in recent months. If it were to ever 'go under' what effect would that have on the market?

If Bitcoins are lost, does that mean they skyrocket, or does fear and the bad press on what was once BTC's strongest and most influential exchange drop the price?

Thoughts?

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January 24, 2014, 11:53:24 PM
 #2

Right now it's lost a humongous amount of credibility with people who know what's what. I don't think anyone here would be too shocked if its slow decline ended in its death.

On the other hand the media would without a doubt go absolutely ballistic and it would be the number one Bitcoin story for a long time. Perception counts for a lot and so perhaps it would slow progress quite a bit.

What I can't quite get my head around is that they're throwing away their position in the market when they're still the benchmark for so many people. They should've relocated to a country with an operating bank system months or years ago.
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January 25, 2014, 12:40:46 AM
 #3

It's quite sad to watch...

They could have added LTC months ago to keep the ship a float, but no they couldn't even do that.

Either someone or something is dragging them down behind the scenes, or they're just a bunch of incompetent morons.

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January 25, 2014, 12:56:03 AM
 #4

What if Huobi goes under?  I mean, MtGox volume is pretty low lately.  But Huobi is a disaster waiting to happen.
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January 25, 2014, 01:01:58 AM
 #5

Isn't their volume just a bunch of bots selling the same coins to each other over and over again?
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January 25, 2014, 01:15:54 AM
 #6

There is nothing wrong with the Japanese banking system.  Any problems are Gox's problems.
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January 25, 2014, 05:07:54 AM
 #7

Cheap coins.



But Gox still has Largest amount of Fiat and Largest amount of Coins.

it's easier to build a large amount of money on the site if you can't get the money off of there...
MatTheCat
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January 25, 2014, 07:44:30 AM
 #8

What if Huobi goes under?  I mean, MtGox volume is pretty low lately.  But Huobi is a disaster waiting to happen.

Not only is Gox volume pretty low, but its volume is totally synthetic. The same coins being passed between accounts by exchange operated bots.

Whatever else anyone wants to say about Huobi, its candlesticks are about as organic on the short term charts (created moreso by humans making trades as opposed to bots), than any of the charts of the other major exchanges. With 0% trading fees, this obviously encourages a high velocity of trades but it still can't be denied, that there are a lot of coins in Chinese hands and one would have to think that if the increasing official stigmatisation of Bitcoin in China continues, and Huobi is indeed shutdown, then many of these coins are going to end up on some USD exchange queuing up to be cashed out.

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January 25, 2014, 11:07:29 AM
 #9

What if Huobi goes under?  I mean, MtGox volume is pretty low lately.  But Huobi is a disaster waiting to happen.

Not only is Gox volume pretty low, but its volume is totally synthetic. The same coins being passed between accounts by exchange operated bots.

Whatever else anyone wants to say about Huobi, its candlesticks are about as organic on the short term charts (created moreso by humans making trades as opposed to bots), than any of the charts of the other major exchanges. With 0% trading fees, this obviously encourages a high velocity of trades but it still can't be denied, that there are a lot of coins in Chinese hands and one would have to think that if the increasing official stigmatisation of Bitcoin in China continues, and Huobi is indeed shutdown, then many of these coins are going to end up on some USD exchange queuing up to be cashed out.


When you say "short term charts" how short term are you looking at?  I mean, for sure there is human trading happening there but I can't deny the massive use of bots. I've seen some odd things happen on Huobi that I can't explain.  I don't day trade so it was the first time I really "watched" for a while, but it just looked like a bot was painting the tape yesterday pulling the price down, but then the bot suddenly stopped and went the other way.  I say bot because it was too quick to be human.  For example, in an upwards movement, the price was say Y4700 then immediately an order for 0.001 BTC (less than $1) would go through at a price of Y4699.99.  I watched this happen off and on for a couple of hours, typically 0.001 - 0.005 BTC.  Then it reached bottom and it reversed, looking like it was trying to drive it back up. I mean, I pretty much watched the whole thing unfold.

Again I don't normally watch the orders like that on a regular basis but I am not completely illiterate in TA and reading charts, this just looked odd.  I do believe a lot of the volume is real considering the 2:1 margin they use, but there is the possibility Huobi itself is trading and making these moves. 

Then again maybe I am completely dreaming who knows.
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January 25, 2014, 11:25:36 AM
 #10

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January 25, 2014, 11:28:35 AM
 #11

The divergence between Gox and Bitstamp, BTC-E and Huobi persists and even grows.
Maybe some players withdrew coins from Gox and are cashing out on other exchanges, or moved into Doge.
Considering that Gox has lost a lot of market share, I believe that basing TA on Gox data only is a mistake.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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January 25, 2014, 11:42:42 AM
 #12

Quote
There's a lot of talk going around about Gox facing a shutdown

sorry I am out ... is it something regards satellite up link Huh

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January 25, 2014, 11:52:24 AM
 #13

{self}

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MatTheCat
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January 25, 2014, 12:04:56 PM
 #14


When you say "short term charts" how short term are you looking at?  I mean, for sure there is human trading happening there but I can't deny the massive use of bots. I've seen some odd things happen on Huobi that I can't explain.  I don't day trade so it was the first time I really "watched" for a while, but it just looked like a bot was painting the tape yesterday pulling the price down, but then the bot suddenly stopped and went the other way.  I say bot because it was too quick to be human.  For example, in an upwards movement, the price was say Y4700 then immediately an order for 0.001 BTC (less than $1) would go through at a price of Y4699.99.  I watched this happen off and on for a couple of hours, typically 0.001 - 0.005 BTC.  Then it reached bottom and it reversed, looking like it was trying to drive it back up. I mean, I pretty much watched the whole thing unfold.

Again I don't normally watch the orders like that on a regular basis but I am not completely illiterate in TA and reading charts, this just looked odd.  I do believe a lot of the volume is real considering the 2:1 margin they use, but there is the possibility Huobi itself is trading and making these moves.  

Then again maybe I am completely dreaming who knows.

Bots pushing spot price up to Ask wall or down to Bid wall (normally up to ask wall), or indeed multiple bots fighting with each other over which wall the spot price leans against is par for the course with Bitcoin exchanges. But go and look at Gox's 1 or 3 minute charts. That there is blatant mechanical trading and not much else. Stamp and BTC-E were almost as bad just a couple of days back when the price holding on there was as palpable as I have ever seen it, causing huge disagreement between buyers and sellers, resulting in huge Ask and Bid walls building up, before one great massive order would be triggered and within a mouse click 800 BTC would be traded and the price would drop just $4 or something stupid like that.

Hmmm....price being blatantly manipulated to hold up against all the weight of organic market forces that want to push it back down whilst there are huge instantaneous cash-outs happening all over the place where some whale-rat shifts half a million worth of Bitcoin with the price just slipping a few dollars as he does it?

I WoNdEr WhAt iS gOiNg oN?

Seems like a great moment to go all-in, long Bitcoin, to me!  Roll Eyes

The divergence between Gox and Bitstamp, BTC-E and Huobi persists and even grows.
Maybe some players withdrew coins from Gox and are cashing out on other exchanges, or moved into Doge.
Considering that Gox has lost a lot of market share, I believe that basing TA on Gox data only is a mistake.

$140 yesterday

$170 right now.

Gox is in its death throws. It is already dead but mimicking life.

I lol whenever I see someone conduct Bitcoin TA using a Gox chart. It is a early way of knowing whether the analys is worth listening to or not.

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January 25, 2014, 12:15:49 PM
 #15


Bots pushing spot price up to Ask wall or down to Bid wall (normally up to ask wall), or indeed multiple bots fighting with each other over which wall the spot price leans against is par for the course with Bitcoin exchanges. But go and look at Gox's 1 or 3 minute charts. That there is blatant mechanical trading and not much else. Stamp and BTC-E were almost as bad just a couple of days back when the price holding on there was as palpable as I have ever seen it, causing huge disagreement between buyers and sellers, resulting in huge Ask and Bid walls building up, before one great massive order would be triggered and within a mouse click 800 BTC would be traded and the price would drop just $4 or something stupid like that.

Hmmm....price being blatantly manipulated to hold up against all the weight of organic market forces that want to push it back down whilst there are huge instantaneous cash-outs happening all over the place where some whale-rat shifts half a million worth of Bitcoin with the price just slipping a few dollars as he does it?

I WoNdEr WhAt iS gOiNg oN?

Seems like a great moment to go all-in, long Bitcoin, to me!  Roll Eyes


Is no one worried about Huobi though?  I mean, they could get shut down tomorrow based on the way they operate.  Their little game they pulled yesterday affected every exchange; the drop came from Huobi, with Bitstamp and BTCe following an hour or so after.

If Huobi has that much power, but are at risk of closing at any moment, I'd say the time to go all in is not until they are gone. 
knightcoin
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January 25, 2014, 12:19:58 PM
 #16


When you say "short term charts" how short term are you looking at?  I mean, for sure there is human trading happening there but I can't deny the massive use of bots. I've seen some odd things happen on Huobi that I can't explain.  I don't day trade so it was the first time I really "watched" for a while, but it just looked like a bot was painting the tape yesterday pulling the price down, but then the bot suddenly stopped and went the other way.  I say bot because it was too quick to be human.  For example, in an upwards movement, the price was say Y4700 then immediately an order for 0.001 BTC (less than $1) would go through at a price of Y4699.99.  I watched this happen off and on for a couple of hours, typically 0.001 - 0.005 BTC.  Then it reached bottom and it reversed, looking like it was trying to drive it back up. I mean, I pretty much watched the whole thing unfold.

Again I don't normally watch the orders like that on a regular basis but I am not completely illiterate in TA and reading charts, this just looked odd.  I do believe a lot of the volume is real considering the 2:1 margin they use, but there is the possibility Huobi itself is trading and making these moves.  

Then again maybe I am completely dreaming who knows.

Bots pushing spot price up to Ask wall or down to Bid wall (normally up to ask wall), or indeed multiple bots fighting with each other over which wall the spot price leans against is par for the course with Bitcoin exchanges. But go and look at Gox's 1 or 3 minute charts. That there is blatant mechanical trading and not much else. Stamp and BTC-E were almost as bad just a couple of days back when the price holding on there was as palpable as I have ever seen it, causing huge disagreement between buyers and sellers, resulting in huge Ask and Bid walls building up, before one great massive order would be triggered and within a mouse click 800 BTC would be traded and the price would drop just $4 or something stupid like that.

Hmmm....price being blatantly manipulated to hold up against all the weight of organic market forces that want to push it back down whilst there are huge instantaneous cash-outs happening all over the place where some whale-rat shifts half a million worth of Bitcoin with the price just slipping a few dollars as he does it?

I WoNdEr WhAt iS gOiNg oN?

Seems like a great moment to go all-in, long Bitcoin, to me!  Roll Eyes

OffTopic (OT)

do u knowe what ? I had a  lucid dream regards "match engine systems" in my case "order precedence rules"  ( price priority - data strucuture, etc ) .. actually my dream was about draw a visual chart about "touch line bet bears/bulls"

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January 25, 2014, 12:44:36 PM
 #17

If Huobi has that much power, but are at risk of closing at any moment, I'd say the time to go all in is not until they are gone.  

Huobi's sell off indeed broke the USD exchange bot algorithms and human intervention was required to buy up a massive Ask wall that was set to pursue the spot price right through a crucial support level on the first bounce. This happened on Stamp, the cash out exchange. Huobi triggered the sell-off, entities operating through Stamp moved to stabilise market on first bounce.

I was being sarcastic when I said that now is a great time to go long Bitcoin. Now would be a terrible time to perhaps have any Bitcoin investment at all. After all a short sell is only as good as the exchanges ability to pay-out in fiat and the only exchange that I consider reputable (Stamp), doesn't do short selling.

OffTopic (OT)
do u knowe what ? I had a  lucid dream regards "match engine systems" in my case "order precedence rules"  ( price priority - data strucuture, etc ) .. actually my dream was about draw a visual chart about "touch line bet bears/bulls"

I think the subconscious mind has an ability of taking in information about the world that the conscious mind misses. Sometimes, this 'missed' information can come to us in dreams.

I had my first Bitcoin dream the same night that I sold a pile of $100 Silk Road coins for $300. The dream consisted of Bitcoin hitting $600 on Gox. I immediately went about getting a trading account set up on Bitstamp. Bitcoin was at $700 before I bought my first speculative Bitcoin. I have just had a short nap and had another Bitcoin dream. It was of a similar theme as all my other Bitcoin dreams of late...."RUN FOR COVER, GET YOUR MONEY OUT NOW, with big roller coasting downward spiky charts"



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January 25, 2014, 12:55:38 PM
 #18

There's a lot of talk going around about Gox facing a shutdown in the forseeable future. While I don't think this is very likely, there has been a sharp decline in its use and effectiveness as an exchange in recent months. If it were to ever 'go under' what effect would that have on the market?

If Bitcoins are lost, does that mean they skyrocket, or does fear and the bad press on what was once BTC's strongest and most influential exchange drop the price?

Thoughts?

People need to stop using gox altogether. No idea how it's even still going.

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January 25, 2014, 01:08:43 PM
 #19


Huobi's sell off indeed broke the USD exchange bot algorithms and human intervention was required to buy up a massive Ask wall that was set to pursue the spot price right through a crucial support level on the first bounce. This happened on Stamp, the cash out exchange. Huobi triggered the sell-off, entities operating through Stamp moved to stabilise market on first bounce.

I was being sarcastic when I said that now is a great time to go long Bitcoin. Now would be a terrible time to perhaps have any Bitcoin investment at all. After all a short sell is only as good as the exchanges ability to pay-out in fiat and the only exchange that I consider reputable (Stamp), doesn't do short selling.



What makes you so sure?  I think that is really interesting.  But what makes you think someone really stepped in?  I mean, they could  have just let it drop a bit more, I mean unless someone is trying to stabilize the market, in which case we have a battle between the stabilizers in the west and the manipulators in Huobi.

But, I did see a reversal in those bot buys on Huobi.  It looked clear to me they dropped the price but in order to avoid a panic sell off they stopped it and drove it back up.  Short then Long.  Think of it this way; no news whatsoever to drive that dip yesterday.  Lead by Huobi, the exchange who operate illegally (yes, I said illegally), where it is a speculators dream with 0 fees. 

And I know Huobi doesn't have an open API, but it would be nice to somehow get a .csv of trades from them to analyze even compare with Stamp and see what exactly happened.

Anyway Huobi is messing everything up right now.  In order to be legitimate this year Bitcoin needs to get rid of Huobi just as much as we did silkroad.


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January 25, 2014, 01:32:25 PM
 #20

Silk Road coins for $3

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