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Author Topic: how long before we set a new high?  (Read 76 times)
slowlyslowly
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May 27, 2018, 07:20:51 PM
 #1

I know history of price movements in bitcoin is short compared to stocks, gold etc  and that history may be a poor indicator of the future for bitcoin but this may be of interest:

We had big, fast price rises in 2011, 2013 and 2017 and then a big fall off each time. Within a 3 month period the price rose respectively from 0.7 to 29, 120 to 991, 4000 to 19000.

It took 19 months for the price to recover to 29
It took 37 months for the price to cover to 991.

If this is a good predictor for our current position then we should expect to be back at 19,000 between July 2019 and Sept 2020.

that is bullish  Grin
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May 27, 2018, 07:27:02 PM
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I am personally expecting to see recover starting around somewhere in december 2018. And we will see whole new moon and all time high in middle of 2019. So your guesses seem accurate. Let's follow markets. Smiley

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gentlemand
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May 27, 2018, 08:29:20 PM
 #3

Late 2020 is my pure guess. When I first got in during 2013 or so I had a feeling in my willy that that would be the year of years and it hasn't gone away. Since then though we've had an enormous, swollen and empty alt market rise to proportions I'd never have expected and I think that makes things rather muddier.

I don't see how they can string that emptiness along for another couple of years and if it pops then I don't necessarily think Bitcoin would be able to shake it off in time, though long term it's healthy.

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May 27, 2018, 09:01:35 PM
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Bitcoin needs a lot thing to recover. Firstly back in 2011 and 2013, Bitcoin was not a hot topic for the mainstream media, almost no one was talking about it (or only to say it will die in 6 months). Media started to publish about it just because it was trending and it gives them a lot of traffic. No matter if it's for talking good or bad about BTC.

Before, less FUD we could see, less fake news, less misinformation, and fewer people like Roger Ver. What I mean is the situation and parameters aren't the same since 2011 & 2013

Bitcoin has the potential to recover, but it depends also on the community.

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May 27, 2018, 09:09:43 PM
Last edit: May 29, 2018, 03:01:21 AM by GoldenLad
 #5

Don't be in a rush to over expect a higher price to prevent been under anxiety. This I believe is among the reason many people do FOMO out  start selling off because they expect a certain price from bitcoin in a certain period of time and if this wasn't seen as expected,  they start believing that bitcoin can't reach or have certain amount and then they starts selling off. 
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May 27, 2018, 10:26:09 PM
 #6

It took 19 months for the price to recover to 29
It took 37 months for the price to cover to 991.

If this is a good predictor for our current position then we should expect to be back at 19,000 between July 2019 and Sept 2020.

that is bullish  Grin

2019-2020 is reasonable, but it could be even longer than that. i got into bitcoin in 2013, and the market moves noticeably slower now.

at the very least, after a major bubble pop, we should expect the consolidation to take the better part of a year. mid-2013 is the shortest example---less than a year. after the 2013 bubble, it took 3.5 years to make new ATHs! Shocked

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May 27, 2018, 10:29:04 PM
 #7

I speculate that in 2018 there will be no high prices, the price will continue to spin in the 5k-7k range I think this is the impact of the loss of many large investors who have left bitcoin, and we just have to wait until there will be a price break, reflected at the end of the year
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May 27, 2018, 10:34:58 PM
 #8

and the market moves noticeably slower now.

Sections of the rise were certainly a lot more sluggish, but there've been violent moves too.

People long predicted that once the price was in five figures we'd find $100 movements profoundly moving, yet it looks pretty much the same as ever to me. It can gain or lose a grand or two in a day without blinking.

And what was once 1 person getting obsessed turning into 2 people might be 1000 turning into 100,000. Let's see what's what at the end of the year but past behaviour is indeed in the past.

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May 27, 2018, 10:51:10 PM
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12 or 13 months.
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May 27, 2018, 10:58:56 PM
 #10

Somewhere between late 2019 and mid-2020. It's a common knowledge that markets have bullish and bearish phases, and the recent ATH and crash now look like a conclusion of a long, almost 2 year bull run, so by the logic now is the time for bear market that should last at least a year. The price shouldn't necessary fall to the ground during this period, but it will be slowly declining, then stagnating until a new rally will start.

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May 27, 2018, 11:10:02 PM
 #11

I am confident that we'll be demolishing the $20,000 mark next year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it happens this year. In percentage terms, 75% chance that it happens next year, and 25% chance for this year.

The thing is that the market is too thin to rule out a major surge beyond that what we consider unlikely today. I am actually happy to see people not having much faith in the current year anymore.

The more we expect the price to go up, the less likely it is, and that directly applies to the opposite as well. The market has been doing the opposite of what we expected to happen, and that might be the case right now.

magneto
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May 28, 2018, 09:45:28 PM
Merited by gentlemand (1)
 #12

I know history of price movements in bitcoin is short compared to stocks, gold etc  and that history may be a poor indicator of the future for bitcoin but this may be of interest:

We had big, fast price rises in 2011, 2013 and 2017 and then a big fall off each time. Within a 3 month period the price rose respectively from 0.7 to 29, 120 to 991, 4000 to 19000.

It took 19 months for the price to recover to 29
It took 37 months for the price to cover to 991.

If this is a good predictor for our current position then we should expect to be back at 19,000 between July 2019 and Sept 2020.

that is bullish  Grin

Based on historical data, bitcoin usually recovers fully into a major bull market in 1-3 years of the end of the last one. If I were asked the question when the next bull market was to come, then I'd say most likely 2020-2021, first of all because I doubt the bear market can last any longer than that, and secondly, the halving has historically been a turning point (even though past performance can't *always* indicate the future). Nobody knows right now how fast or how high the increase is going to be for the next bull market, the ATH could even not be breached, believe it or not.

While this is the case, I don't see 2018 as a bullish year, or even 2019.

Before the recovery happens, the price needs to find strong support at a certain level. Right now I don't think that we have found that support yet.

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