Near term price prediction.

[MatTheCat]

No TA here, as I reckon I am starting to tune into the manipulators script.

Bitcoin will hover around the level it is at but slowly grind it's way up to 814 level. At this point it will hover around and grind its way back down with the whale-rats springing massive trade orders into towering bid walls that have built up due to bots causing a chasm between buyers and sellers.

Go long here (but make sure you bid a good few dollars below the fake spot bot moulded spot price), have sell orders at around 814, take small profits and then short Bitcoin.

U read it here first!

EDIT: For posterity, may I add that Bitcoin was at 791 on Stamp at the time I posted this. Presently at 806 (whale-rat bot inflated prices that is, real price probably about 802). Those who went with my long trade will have done ok so far....I never got in cos I bid too low, but I have raised my bid (still under 800) and hope to get in a bit later on.

Updated: Well that played out much faster than I would have thought as it seems that after the whale-rat wallet A - whale rat wallet B pump, there was no dump! Instead, there was a severe shortage of mugs willing to go piling into the whale rat's buy wall in the $815-$820 range. Anyone who did what I said, will have done pretty well if the cash their short out even now (Bitstamp $801). Me, I am holding out for a good bet yet seeking multiple profits. Keep the losses small and the wins big...can't go wrong.

[T.Stuart]

No TA here, as I reckon I am starting to tune into the manipulators script.

Bitcoin will hover around the level it is at but slowly grind it's way up to 814 level. At this point it will hover around and grind its way back down with the whale-rats springing massive trade orders into towering bid walls that have built up due to bots causing a chasm between buyers and sellers.

Go long here (but make sure you bid a good few dollars below the fake spot bot moulded spot price), have sell orders at around 814, take small profits and then short Bitcoin.

U read it here first!

Quoted for future reference!

[Dalmar]

Random guess:

NYC hearing negative = ~650
NYC hearing positive = ~1000

[MatTheCat]

Quoted for future reference!

Please do.

I should add, only go long here if the bots let you bid under their inflated ask price. If you bid at the ask price, you will get in, but you will then invariably have trouble selling at the next top and will probably be forced to sell well under the spot price, leaving u not very much margin minus exchange fees.

I have been trying to liquidate a short position at a break even price point. I have been watching bitcoinwisdom and a couple of times I thought my buy-order was triggered, only to discover that it was another similarly sized order that outbid me by 1 cent!....."oooh silly me, if I only I had bid a little higher! I had better go chasing that Ask wall before its too late!!!"

most pathetic market ever.

[segeln]

Random guess:

NYC hearing negative = ~650
NYC hearing positive = ~1000

I doubt NYC Hearing is so important

[shmadz]

Random guess:

NYC hearing negative = ~650
NYC hearing positive = ~1000

I doubt NYC Hearing is so important

Really? I think NYC hearing is quite important. It should, at the very least, provide some kind of guidance in terms of political policy.

Why exactly do you think otherwise?

[Dalmar]

I doubt NYC Hearing is so important

It depends.

If the policy direction gets clarified without much ambiguity, then it is. NYC is a major financial hub.

[Johnny Bitcoinseed]

Yeah, Bitcoin is world wide.  Also, by its nature it is designed to be political neutral.  Sure, "they" can try to regulate it as they do with everything else (which is why the world is in the mess that it is in) but they will fail just as they have failed with the war on drugs, poverty, terrorism, education and everything else the state attempts.

Free market, free market, free market.  That is the only way to freedom and prosperity.

The more they try to regulate, the better it is for Bitcoin

[aminorex]

Random guess:

NYC hearing negative = ~650
NYC hearing positive = ~1000

I doubt NYC Hearing is so important

Really? I think NYC hearing is quite important. It should, at the very least, provide some kind of guidance in terms of political policy.

Why exactly do you think otherwise?

It has exactly zero impact on policy at the national/global level.  NYDFS is not going to handicap NYC in competing with London.   Lawsky is an impotent slug.  The most harm than can be done is a few soundbites.  The economists speaking at the end of day 2 are probably going to generate some epigrams suitable for a bear's sig.

[aminorex]

most pathetic market ever.

You really should be going long on Dunning-Kruggerands.

[MatTheCat]

Here is my placed short bet.

"S'Gone"

I may get more funds onto Bitfinex and elaborate on it later.

[shmadz]

Random guess:

NYC hearing negative = ~650
NYC hearing positive = ~1000

I doubt NYC Hearing is so important

Really? I think NYC hearing is quite important. It should, at the very least, provide some kind of guidance in terms of political policy.

Why exactly do you think otherwise?

It has exactly zero impact on policy at the national/global level.  NYDFS is not going to handicap NYC in competing with London.   Lawsky is an impotent slug.  The most harm than can be done is a few soundbites.  The economists speaking at the end of day 2 are probably going to generate some epigrams suitable for a bear's sig.

I agree with the "most harm" scenario, but it seems like you're ignoring the "most good" scenario.

So what if these hearings are positive? What if they provide guidance for exchanges and banking and inclusion in more traditional trading vessels (ETF, hedge/pension funds, etc.)

This scenario would place NYC as the epicenter of bitcoin, for better or worse.

All I'm saying is that there is a chance that a positive outcome could have an incredible impact. (also why IMO there is little chance of any clear outcome from these meetings - I just wanted to point out that there are outliers and "black swans" that should be taken into consideration when doing risk assessment)  

[RyNinDaCleM]

Here is my placed short bet.

[img]

I may get more funds onto Bitfinex and elaborate on it later.

You should not be posting this on a public forum! A user by the name of meelba comes to mind when I see this.

Smaller trade but can still have the same outcome for you

[Holliday]

meelba

Fun times.

[RyNinDaCleM]

meelba

Fun times.

'twas 

[MatTheCat]

Here is my placed short bet.

[img]

I may get more funds onto Bitfinex and elaborate on it later.

You should not be posting this on a public forum! A user by the name of meelba comes to mind when I see this.

Smaller trade but can still have the same outcome for you

Good thinking.

But lets just say that I am strongly convinced that a whole lot of bulltards are going to pile into the Ask walls at $815 - $820 range, in the expectancy that Bitcoin will rise at least to $845 - $850 like it did the last time, but of course, all that they will be doing is buying a mass of whale-rat coins at what will become yet another resistance point.

[shmadz]

Here is my placed short bet.

[img]

I may get more funds onto Bitfinex and elaborate on it later.

You should not be posting this on a public forum! A user by the name of meelba comes to mind when I see this.

Smaller trade but can still have the same outcome for you

Good thinking.

But lets just say that I am strongly convinced that a whole lot of bulltards are going to pile into the Ask walls at $815 - $820 range, in the expectancy that Bitcoin will rise at least to $845 - $850 like it did the last time, but of course, all that they will be doing is buying a mass of whale-rat coins at what will become yet another resistance point.

I hope to have new fiat coming into the exchange by Wednesday by the latest. What do you think* feel is a good entry range?

*I mean what does your gut tell you, not your mind

[MatTheCat]

*I mean what does your gut tell you, not your mind

My gut tells me bad things are on the cards for Bitcoin. It doesn't know what, where or when, but just that these things are bad.

My mind tells me that the best investment strategy would be to wait for an obvious top where the buying power is clearly never going to push beyond it (or not much beyond it), and then short. I would suggest that this next stubborn top is going to be 815-820.

That is where I am placing my bets, but be warned. The only tip offs I have read on the internet that have come true, were the ones that I never betted on. So bear that in mind. If you bet on it, u probably gonna get stung, if you don't, good chance it will land pretty well.

[shmadz]

*I mean what does your gut tell you, not your mind

My gut tells me bad things are on the cards for Bitcoin. It doesn't know what, where or when, but just that these things are bad.

My mind tells me that the best investment strategy would be to wait for an obvious top where the buying power is clearly never going to push beyond it (or not much beyond it), and then short. I would suggest that this next stubborn top is going to be 815-820.

That is where I am placing my bets, but be warned. The only tip offs I have read on the internet that have come true, were the ones that I never betted on. So bear that in mind. If you bet on it, u probably gonna get stung, if you don't, good chance it will land pretty well.

errr.. unfortunately, I'm uncomfortable with leverage, or shorts, or any of that kind of stuff. I will continue to wait for the dips, was just hoping you had some kind of feeling for at least a short-term bottom.

- and then I realize that there is no bottom for your bet. maybe I am starting now to understand what a "short" actually is.

Thank you again.

[MatTheCat]

errr.. unfortunately, I'm uncomfortable with leverage, or shorts, or any of that kind of stuff. I will continue to wait for the dips, was just hoping you had some kind of feeling for at least a short-term bottom.

- and then I realize that there is no bottom for your bet. maybe I am starting now to understand what a "short" actually is.

Thank you again.

I only discovered shorting on Bitfinex very recently. If I had discovered it sooner I would have made a fkn fortune as I called the two big Dec crashes before they occurred and contented myself with trying to buy the dips. I done really well with the Dec 05 crash, catching the knife just $50 above its absolute bottom (i.e. the price that only the whale-rat gets to buy in at). On the Dec 17 crash, I called it again in advance, again to the derision of many on here, but this time I let all the bull-tard waffle on this forum get into my head, and I raised my buy-in tranches up $100 from the $400-$500 range (which I was assured was impossible) to a more 'realistic' $500-$600 range, which I was also assured was never gonna happen cos the Bid walls were so heavily stacked in this area. Well bitcoin went to $380 on this occasion and I bought in to the tune of about $25K at an average of $540. With hindsight, it was a stunning move, but unfortunately, I decided to start baby-sitting it at a very inopportune moment and lost my nerve like a little girl on particularly volatile $450 - $550 swing. I panic sold everything at $490.

If you are convinced like I am, that the market is in recession, in that no fresh capital is willing to enter at these price levels, and that the market makers are therefore undertaking to maximise their profits in a market which they know is going down (they control it, they dangle the bait, they know if the little fishes are biting or not), then trying to play the bounces is a mugs game. Far better to go short, entering market slowly at a point when you can see that the buying power is simply not going to push the price any higher, being sure to set a stop loss order to limit any losses you may might take.

Much better riding a bear market down trying to decide when to exit your short order, than sitting with your heart beating out your chest watch your buy-in level get taken out and the price continuing to plummet.