Nothing at all will happen on january 31st. Please stop talking about it

[TERA]

This whole 'china 31st' thing seems like one of those troll box myths that only noobs fall for. In reality, nothing happens on the 31st that hasn't already happened.
-the Chinese exchanges don't close
-the bank transfer to huobi doesn't disappear
-the whales do not start dumping tons of coins
-the whales don't start buying tons of coins
-the price doesn't go up
-the price doesn't go down
-nothing happens

The whales who move the price aren't going to suddenly change their positions, because they already know the truth: the 31st deadline only applies to third party payment processors, and all the third party processors have ALREADY CLOSED, while bank transfers are unaffected. The whales are intelligent people who have done their due diligence and already know this. People aren't going to suddenly think "wow omg it didn't crash buy buy buy", because anyone with half a brain ALREADY KNEW what was going to happen. It is already PRICED IN.

So don't be surprised when during the first week of February NOTHING happens and the consolidation pattern continues. And please stop saying you're certain that a rally will occur due to Jan 31st, because that is bogus.

Do you want to know why the market is really in limbo? It is about when the Chinese government is going to shut down Huobi's bank account and arrest the owner. This has nothing to do with the 31st. It is a completely unpredictable event.

[zoinky]

Everyone listen to this guy, no more speculating in the speculation forum.

[podyx]

Are you sure about this??

I thought 3rd party processors could not deal with bitcoin anymore, so this is false?

[Apostata]

Are you sure about this??

I thought 3rd party processors could not deal with bitcoin anymore, so this is false?

Correct, but they already stopped. 

[Apostata]

Do you want to know why the market is really in limbo? It is about when the Chinese government is going to shut down Huobi's bank account and arrest the owner. This has nothing to do with the 31st. It is a completely unpredictable event.

Absolutely right on.  The only thing left now is Huobi (and to a lesser extent OK Coin), both of whom are at risk of being shut down at anytime.  But this has nothing to do with the 31st of January.

[bitcoinlitcoinbtcltc]

Believe what you want my friend.
But the Chinese want their money out of those exchanges before the 31st .

[HairyMaclairy]

OP is right.  However he neglected to mention what will happen on 1 Feb after the deadline for withdrawal has expired.  

[billyjoeallen]

Do you want to know why the market is really in limbo? It is about when the Chinese government is going to shut down Huobi's bank account and arrest the owner. This has nothing to do with the 31st. It is a completely unpredictable event.

Absolutely right on.  The only thing left now is Huobi (and to a lesser extent OK Coin), both of whom are at risk of being shut down at anytime.  But this has nothing to do with the 31st of January.

I think it's possible that the owner/operators of those exchanges are influential party members or more likely related to influential party members.  The payment processor issue was more about favoritism against Bobby Lee (the outsider) than anything else. It's also very possible that the ban will drive renmimbi/yuan to the exchanges as people thing this may be their last chance to buy a rapidly appreciating asset that allows them to evade capital controls.

[Apostata]

I think one thing that needs to be clarified here is what the 31st relates to. 

On December 16, the Chinese government, through a deputy director of the PBOC, unofficially met and  ordered 10 third-party payment providers of virtual currencies among them the biggest, Alipay, to stop providing clearing services to the Bitcoin exchanges with a time limit of 31st January 2014.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-halves-china-clampdown-085816934.html

However, instead of waiting until the 31st of January, 3rd party payment processors terminated services effective immediately.  As of right now, depositing and withdrawing funds from Chinese exchanges is not done through 3rd party payment providers. This is why, as the OP states, the 31st is pretty much irrelevant at this point

However, Huobi and OK Coin are using their corporate bank accounts to process deposits/withdrawals.  Some (including myself) argue that this is against the PBOC's new regulations on Bitcoin, which state that:

"financial institutions and payment institutions are not allowed to use bitcoin...or directly or indirectly provide customers with other services related to bitcoin"

and also states banks

"may not act as a central counterparty in Bitcoin trading"

In my opinion, Huobi (and OK Coin) are operating outside of the PBOC's bitcoin regulations (and I argue are not adhering to many more regulations) and are at risk of being shut down at anytime. However, this has nothing to do with January 31st. 

[bitcoinlitcoinbtcltc]

if they are shut down it means end of bitcoin

[aminorex]

RUMOR, but should be easy to confirm/deny:  A lot of banking services in PRC are very limited or completely unavailable until 2/7.

If true, I wouldn't expect much action at all out of China until 2d week of Feb.

[Apostata]

I think it's possible that the owner/operators of those exchanges are influential party members or more likely related to influential party members.  The payment processor issue was more about favoritism against Bobby Lee (the outsider) than anything else. It's also very possible that the ban will drive renmimbi/yuan to the exchanges as people thing this may be their last chance to buy a rapidly appreciating asset that allows them to evade capital controls.

Many people agree, however, here are my thoughts on that.  Bobby Lee was the one who broke the news about the 31st to CoinDesk.  

http://www.coindesk.com/china-bans-payment-companies-working-bitcoin-exchanges-sources-claim/

Bobby Lee had sources inside the PBOC meeting with 3rd party payment providers who advised him of the meeting.  I believe Bobby Lee is as connected as anyone, and none of this has to do with any "Guanxi".  

So why has Bobby Lee and BTC China given up the throne to Huobi?  Because Huobi is operating outside of the law, and I would argue Bobby Lee actually has more sway with regulators, and knows his time is up.  In a Wired.com interview, Lee states that BTC China isn’t thinking about the direct payment route because they would first need to be licensed as a payment processor in order to send and receive funds to and from clients and the company's corporate bank account.

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2014/01/huobi/

[Apostata]

if they are shut down it means end of bitcoin

They will be shut down.  And it won't mean the end of bitcoin.  Huobi is a cesspool of bots and price manipulation, driving each of the mini rallies and crashes over the past month.  Once they are shut down, there will be an immediate but short term negative effect on the price.  But we are then free of these fly by night Chinese exchanges and it will be smooth sailing for bitcoin.

[redwraith]

if they are shut down it means end of bitcoin

LoL, your delusional

[Apostata]

RUMOR, but should be easy to confirm/deny:  A lot of banking services in PRC are very limited or completely unavailable until 2/7.

If true, I wouldn't expect much action at all out of China until 2d week of Feb.

Strange thing is Zerohedge confirmed the rumor was FALSE, however Huobi still say on their website that withdrawals and deposits will not be processed during this time

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-26/no-there-no-stoppage-cash-transfers-china

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=46

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=66

[undeadbitcoiner]

Yes Nothing is goingh to happen,

I think one thing that needs to be clarified here is what the 31st relates to. 

On December 16, the Chinese government, through a deputy director of the PBOC, unofficially met and  ordered 10 third-party payment providers of virtual currencies among them the biggest, Alipay, to stop providing clearing services to the Bitcoin exchanges with a time limit of 31st January 2014.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-halves-china-clampdown-085816934.html

However, instead of waiting until the 31st of January, 3rd party payment processors terminated services effective immediately.  As of right now, depositing and withdrawing funds from Chinese exchanges is not done through 3rd party payment providers. This is why, as the OP states, the 31st is pretty much irrelevant at this point

However, Huobi and OK Coin are using their corporate bank accounts to process deposits/withdrawals.  Some (including myself) argue that this is against the PBOC's new regulations on Bitcoin, which state that:

"financial institutions and payment institutions are not allowed to use bitcoin...or directly or indirectly provide customers with other services related to bitcoin"

and also states banks

"may not act as a central counterparty in Bitcoin trading"

In my opinion, Huobi (and OK Coin) are operating outside of the PBOC's bitcoin regulations (and I argue are not adhering to many more regulations) and are at risk of being shut down at anytime. However, this has nothing to do with January 31st. 

you are rite, Third party processing already shut down and that effect happened for few days and now its back, so nothing os going to happen  nothing more to happen from china, if anything happens then will happen some positive.
Good Luck

[aminorex]

RUMOR, but should be easy to confirm/deny:  A lot of banking services in PRC are very limited or completely unavailable until 2/7.

If true, I wouldn't expect much action at all out of China until 2d week of Feb.

Strange thing is Zerohedge confirmed the rumor was FALSE, however Huobi still say on their website that withdrawals and deposits will not be processed during this time

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-26/no-there-no-stoppage-cash-transfers-china

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=46

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=66

Actually, as I read it, the rumor I reported is true.  The false rumor is quite a bit more ambitious in its scope.  The true part is that holiday schedules curtail banking services through the 7th.

[Elwar]

I created my own private alt coin and moved all of my bitcoins into there because of how low Bitcoin will drop on January 31st.

I have also burned down my house. Just in case.

[Apostata]

you are rite, Third party processing already shut down and that effect happened for few days and now its back

I don't understand what you are trying to say here

[Apostata]

RUMOR, but should be easy to confirm/deny:  A lot of banking services in PRC are very limited or completely unavailable until 2/7.

If true, I wouldn't expect much action at all out of China until 2d week of Feb.

Strange thing is Zerohedge confirmed the rumor was FALSE, however Huobi still say on their website that withdrawals and deposits will not be processed during this time

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-26/no-there-no-stoppage-cash-transfers-china

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=46

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=66

Actually, as I read it, the rumor I reported is true.  The false rumor is quite a bit more ambitious in its scope.  The true part is that holiday schedules curtail banking services through the 7th.

Hmmmm...I don't know what to believe!   I think you are right, I think the Zerohedge report was specifically referring to Citibank.