January 31th, a few facts

[pietje]

Im getting pretty tired of all these bear posts about the 31th and im starting to think it might scare of some new ppl, which we dont want. So im just going to state a few facts here, so you can make your own descision.

1. On the 31th the chinese ban all 3th party's from the exchanges. In fact today, no 3th party is still used by any of the exchanges. So basically nothing changes.
2. If the chinese ban is in fact important, the chinese ppl would know this better then us. Do you really think everyone keeps waiting for selling till the 31th? I dont see any rise in price since the 8th of january, so if you where a chinese btc owner. Why would you wait with selling till the 31th? But so far, i've not seen any chinese dump.
3. Sometimes i hear: the volume at Huobi compared to the other exchanges is way higher, so the chinese own alot of btc. Huobi is the only exchange with 0% fee's for selling and buying. You can even buy your own btc over and over and create alot of volume which costs you nothing! Therefor it is much easier to sell and buy then when you have 0,4% fee for example. Look at what happened to BTC China when they changed the fee's from 0% to 0,4%. The volume went from the amount of Huobi to allmost nothing.

Now what i think:
My prediction is stable till the 31th (we are stable since january 8th), after that fast rally up. My advice is if your looking to buy into btc to wait a bit longer, till about the 31th. Alot of bear's and misinformed people out there. So if a whale starts dumping there coins, it is Always possible it can start some panic. This has been tried many times since the 8th but never successful, but you never know.
I do advice urgently to keep a close eye on the prices around the 31th/1st. If no crash happens (which is most likely in my opinion) all the misinformed people and the people waiting start buying coins. This creates a rise and then all the stupid bears panic buy too to create an ever faster rally.

[Apostata]

I lost you after the third "31th"

[Hyena]

I lost you after the third "31th"

+1

I'm not sure if it's me getting more lazy over time or OP's message really is too long or boring. I mean if OP is bullish then I already know anyway these facts

[damnek]

Topic title said a few facts..

[eiskalt]

Facts are here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412280.0;all

[fonzie]

Also in here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433625.0

with the newest updates from the Miami Bitcoin Conference

[Dalmar]

This topic is nonsense.. here's a far clearer/less biased explanation from reddit on Jan 31st:

''Since there are more and more threads surfacing telling everyone that January 31 does not matter, here a little dose of reality to cool all the euphoria(credit to /u/Posiment[1]):

Financial and payment institutions:

use Bitcoin pricing for products or services

may not buy or sell Bitcoins

may not act as a central counterparty in Bitcoin trading

may not offer insurance products associated with Bitcoin

may not provide direct or indirect Bitcoin-related services to customers, including: registering, trading, settling, clearing or other services

Original Source

Translation on BTCChina

This is old news. Everybody knows it, but most people choose to ignore it, thats why I am saying it again, aimed especially at Huobis practice of running their exchange:

Banks may not provide [...] indirect Bitcoin-related services to customers[...]

You all read the horror stories of American customers of financial institutions that simply did not process their orders or even suspended their accounts due to bitcoin trading. Chinese banks can do that too.

This is also the reason why Malcolm Casselle, former Regional Manager Eastern China at Gaopeng Groupon Tencent China, pointed out that

you’re not allowed to deposit money into your Bank account for Bitcoin.

which is his opinion.[2]^

I dont want to speculate what will happen and at which date, but this is something that does not get the attention it should get. Even if January 31 passes without a shutdown of Huobi it doesnt mean that the situation will be any different than it is now. The Chinese government can accept this practice or choose to shut it down. As long as it doesnt officially endorse it, which is highly unlikely at this point, we are holding a hand grenade and hope they dont pull the pin.

My personal opinion:

Bitcoin could very well go for the $1200 mark again in the near future, considering all the recent positive news. It could again pass a point that made the Chinese government intervene before. This time they wont need to pass legislation or set a deadline. Providing direct or indirect bitcoin related services is prohibited. They would shut down Huobi in an instant.

Again, its not that what Huobi is doing might be legal, it is that banks and payment processors are not allowed to let Huobi use their services to do that.''

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1w9j93/in_light_of_the_china_deadline_coming_up_here_is/

[pietje]

Funny that its all nonsense, but no argument has been pointed out.
And yea, sorry for my english.

Also, the whole Huobi situation has really nothing to do with the 31st. They can be shut down in 5 minutes, or never.