Like most experienced cryptocurrency technical analysts, I have used Elliot Wave (EW) theory to pull out of my ass the new target of $960-980 (Bitstamp) by February 1st.
Shall this target not be reached, I have a contingency second target of $10-800.
This being said, my personal view is that bitcoin is headed to much lower lows.
The first part of your analysis appears to be flawed by an incorrect K value. The last part appears spot on, however, so I will confirm that part.