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Author Topic: Bitcoin: Disaster Proof?  (Read 4305 times)
srb123
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March 11, 2011, 08:21:57 AM
 #1

As we watch in horror yet another devastating earthquake in a developed nation, and cant help thinking how does this relate to bitcoin?


What happens to your hard earned during a disaster in a bitcoin world?
My thoughts on the pro-side:
1. We'll likely see the Yen drop because of this earthquake, but Bitcoin will not. (New Zealand Dollars have slid since their earthquake for instance.)
2. The fully p2p system means that while mining might slow up, the system is in no way permanently damaged, and will not miss a beat for the rest of the world.


On the con side:
1. Good luck buying yourself Mocha Latte in Downtown Disasterville using Bitcoin without any cell coverage or internet. (Although you'll probably struggle to find a shop that is open.)


My thoughts are with the Japanese in this hard time.

Any other thoughts coinheads?
 
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March 11, 2011, 08:44:25 AM
 #2

On the con side:
1. Good luck buying yourself Mocha Latte in Downtown Disasterville using Bitcoin without any cell coverage or internet.

  Related: Options for offline-only users?
  http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1838.0

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March 11, 2011, 03:46:43 PM
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I think what could hurt it most, besides the loss of people using Bitcoin that died in the disaster, would be if the Internet got split into two or more significant non-interconnected groups for a prolonged period of time; any coin mined during the period is under the risk of eventually being wiped from existence when the Internet becomes one once again.



I wonder what would happen to Bitcoin if Earth went in the bullseye of a severe solar storm of the type that not only fries satelites but also lights on fire electrical, telephone etc wires closer to ground (some time ago telegraph wires went aflame under such an event)

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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March 11, 2011, 06:14:24 PM
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I wonder what would happen to Bitcoin if Earth went in the bullseye of a severe solar storm of the type that not only fries satelites but also lights on fire electrical, telephone etc wires closer to ground (some time ago telegraph wires went aflame under such an event)

Forget Bitcoin, if an event of that intensity happened today, or was artificially induced (e.g. by EMP) somewhere between 80% and 90% of all living human beings would die.

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srb123
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March 12, 2011, 12:35:02 AM
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I wonder what would happen to Bitcoin if Earth went in the bullseye of a severe solar storm of the type that not only fries satelites but also lights on fire electrical, telephone etc wires closer to ground (some time ago telegraph wires went aflame under such an event)

Forget Bitcoin, if an event of that intensity happened today, or was artificially induced (e.g. by EMP) somewhere between 80% and 90% of all living human beings would die.

Yeah wee are merely talking about disasters, not catastrophic failure of the planet. But maybe we could raise a bouty to place a node on the moon, for extra redundancy, lol.

That said solar flares could be a risk, oh and the reversal of our poles. http://www.physics.org/facts/frog-magnetic-field.asp
But im not sure is these will damage undersea cables.


Anyway, my point is that I think that Bitcoin will be great against localised disaster, and hyperinflation.
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March 12, 2011, 02:10:04 AM
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I don't think even undersea cables are really safe

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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Sultan
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March 12, 2011, 03:08:29 AM
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If you Encrypted your wallet, then took the binary of the file as a representation of letters and numbers, and then printed that on paper, that would safeguard your BitCoins, but then you'll have to wait for the network to re-establish itself after the fallout...

http://images.onbux.com/banner.gif
I then use the money to buy BitCoins. You can too!
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March 12, 2011, 04:27:22 AM
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Yeah wee are merely talking about disasters, not catastrophic failure of the planet. But maybe we could raise a bouty to place a node on the moon, for extra redundancy, lol.


It will some time before a node could exist on the Moon, and the SoL delay would mean that any generators on the Moon would be at a distinct disadvantage.

Low Earth orbit is doable now, but neither option actually protects the blockchain from a solar flare.  The current model  is easily as safe as can be expected.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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March 15, 2011, 08:07:25 PM
 #9

If you Encrypted your wallet, then took the binary of the file as a representation of letters and numbers, and then printed that on paper, that would safeguard your BitCoins, but then you'll have to wait for the network to re-establish itself after the fallout...

You might also want to make sure at least a couple people have printed out the block chain ...and the bitcoin source code  ...and the source code to at least one OS (i.e. Linux) ...BIOS source code ...chip microcode ...hardware schematics ...oh, and paper isn't very durable so you might need to inscribe everything in stone tablets buried in your back yard.  Wink

(gasteve on IRC) Does your website accept cash? https://bitpay.com
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March 15, 2011, 08:42:40 PM
 #10

It will some time before a node could exist on the Moon, and the SoL delay would mean that any generators on the Moon would be at a distinct disadvantage.
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3009.msg41996#msg41996

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MoonShadow
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March 16, 2011, 07:30:46 AM
 #11

It will some time before a node could exist on the Moon, and the SoL delay would mean that any generators on the Moon would be at a distinct disadvantage.
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3009.msg41996#msg41996

Luna is Bitcoin compliant.

A 2.5 second round trip delay is more than enough to put a node at a disadvantage.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
FatherMcGruder
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March 16, 2011, 12:27:46 PM
 #12

A 2.5 second round trip delay is more than enough to put a node at a disadvantage.
So, Lunar nodes will continue working on a block for 2.5 seconds after an Earthing node has already solved it. Similarly, Earthling nodes will continue working on a block for 2.5 seconds after a Lunar node has already solved it. There's only a 2.5 second window for a rejected block to occur for nodes on either body. A disadvantage only occurs to the extent that one body has more computing power than the other. So, however unlikely, if Earthing nodes ever find themselves contributing less computing power than Lunar ones, the delay could put them at risk for rejected blocks. Of course, it's only a 2.5 second window. It seems that the problem would only rarely occur.

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MoonShadow
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March 16, 2011, 03:35:47 PM
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A 2.5 second round trip delay is more than enough to put a node at a disadvantage.
So, Lunar nodes will continue working on a block for 2.5 seconds after an Earthing node has already solved it. Similarly, Earthling nodes will continue working on a block for 2.5 seconds after a Lunar node has already solved it. There's only a 2.5 second window for a rejected block to occur for nodes on either body. A disadvantage only occurs to the extent that one body has more computing power than the other. So, however unlikely, if Earthing nodes ever find themselves contributing less computing power than Lunar ones, the delay could put them at risk for rejected blocks. Of course, it's only a 2.5 second window. It seems that the problem would only rarely occur.

That on top of local network latency.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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March 16, 2011, 05:02:46 PM
 #14

That on top of local network latency.
Let's assume a total delay of five seconds then, and that Lunar and Earthling nodes contribute equally. Suppose a Lunar node solves the same block that an Earthling node did 4 seconds ago. Will the problem not sort itself out before the mistaken Lunar node spends the award? How does the Bitcoin network presently handle the issue with terrestrial latency? Is there really a problem if the delay is well under ten minutes?

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theymos
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March 16, 2011, 08:06:15 PM
 #15

It would be possible to mine with 5-second latency, but no one would do it because it's a significant disadvantage.

The network would sort it out without problems.

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FatherMcGruder
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March 16, 2011, 08:27:27 PM
 #16

It would be possible to mine with 5-second latency, but no one would do it because it's a significant disadvantage.

The network would sort it out without problems.
Ah, so by starting late, Lunar nodes are always less likely to find the block first. What if a Lunar nodes only process lunar transactions and give up on blocks after nine minutes and fifty-five seconds to start working on the next block?

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theymos
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March 16, 2011, 08:41:22 PM
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Ah, so by starting late, Lunar nodes are always less likely to find the block first. What if a Lunar nodes only process lunar transactions and give up on blocks after nine minutes and fifty-five seconds to start working on the next block?

The next block time can't be predicted. Limiting to local transactions doesn't help much in this case.

If the moon becomes heavily populated, it will probably start its own chain. These mooncoins would have a floating exchange rate with bitcoins, though the exchange rate would probably be pretty steady.

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March 17, 2011, 12:46:37 AM
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The delay between the moon and the earth wouldn't be significant enough for a split and timekeeping would dictate that majority of blocks found would defaultly go to earth nodes. However moon transactions will still be processed by earth and moon nodes, making those still viable.


But how exactly does bitcoin handle a significant number of users split? There's theoretically 50% of the current bitcoins on each side, and each side does transactions and generates blocks and more bitcoins. After a certain amount of time, the two networks could connect.

Would people lose bitcoins in their wallets?
Would there be inflation due to duplicate blocks generated? (or absorb it into the final amount total until it reaches 21million? What if they reconnected when each network had 21million?)
Would each network reject each other and members of each network have NetworkA or NetworkB on their bitcoin transactions?
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March 17, 2011, 01:30:53 AM
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But how exactly does bitcoin handle a significant number of users split? There's theoretically 50% of the current bitcoins on each side, and each side does transactions and generates blocks and more bitcoins. After a certain amount of time, the two networks could connect.

Would people lose bitcoins in their wallets?
Would there be inflation due to duplicate blocks generated? (or absorb it into the final amount total until it reaches 21million? What if they reconnected when each network had 21million?)
Would each network reject each other and members of each network have NetworkA or NetworkB on their bitcoin transactions?

If the split lasts for less than 120 blocks (the generation maturation time), then there's no big problem. People in the shorter chain will lose generations from after the split, but all other transactions will be picked up by the new chain.

If it lasts much longer than 120 blocks, then there will be big problems. All transactions using coins from the recently-invalidated generations also become invalid. Potentially a large number of transactions could be reversed.

More info:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241.msg2071#msg2071

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FatherMcGruder
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March 17, 2011, 01:51:28 AM
 #20

The delay between the moon and the earth wouldn't be significant enough for a split and timekeeping would dictate that majority of blocks found would defaultly go to earth nodes. However moon transactions will still be processed by earth and moon nodes, making those still viable.
In that case, Luna is Bitcoin-compliant, but with limitations on mining. I suppose Lunans could either overcome the Earthlings' computing power or start their own block-chain if they didn't like the mining disadvantage... and then start bombarding the Earth with moon rocks.

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