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Author Topic: Mortgage versus waiting for housing market crash  (Read 2177 times)
DooMAD
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January 28, 2014, 11:11:04 PM
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So I know a few places in the world currently have housing bubbles where governments are trying to rescue their economies by artificially inflating the price of real estate.  Where I am in the UK, housing is already at an inflated price and the current government are making it worse with their mind-numbingly stupid "help to buy" scheme, or "right to buy 2.0" as I like to call it.  Right to Buy was a scheme to sell council houses to the people who lived in them, subsidised using public money to support it.  The outcome was increased housing prices.  Help to Buy is going to be inexorably worse because it's for all properties rather than just council ones.  So I figure it's a sound assumption that there will be a collapse in the property market in the near future.  That means it's best for me to save my money and wait before buying a house.

However, seeing what's going on with fiat currency and how it's all heading into a downward spiral is a growing concern.  Countries all over the world have apparently entered a race to the bottom, seeing who can print money the fastest.  While I'm saving for a deposit for when the inevitable housing collapse comes, the money I'm saving is becoming less valuable.  My purchasing power is weakening.  What we think of as "money" might be in a bubble, just like housing is.  Ideally I'd like to be withdrawing from any financial assets and converting them into tangible assets before the financial assets aren't worth the paper they're printed on.  I watch with alarm as we amend the law to include bail-ins as the new norm.  Savings are excluded at the moment, but how long before that changes?  How long before money isn't safe in the bank?

The question I find myself asking is, what if the fiat bubble bursts before the housing bubble?  House prices would skyrocket naturally without any government manipulation and my plan would be completely shot and void.

But if I buy a house now, that means a bigger mortgage.  Mortgages will be harder to pay off when house prices drop, or even impossible if negative equity sets in (as I'm sure it will for millions, sadly).  A devaluing currency would also impact a mortgage.  I'm still 95% sure I'm choosing the right course in waiting for house prices to drop, but the doubts are getting bigger as fiat starts to feel less secure.

Thoughts?

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January 28, 2014, 11:26:37 PM
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My first thought is you don't really understand Right to Buy.  My second thought is, if you really believe money is going to devalue, you want a mortgage. Mortgage on property is an excellent hedge against inflation, the property itself would be very good, but the fact you'll be paying off that loan with future devalued money is double bubble.  History shows us housing "crashes" are only ever temporary.
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January 29, 2014, 08:54:26 AM
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i strongly believe that we are on top of the real estate bubble. currently in uk you need about 5-6kg of gold to buy a house. during the crash period you will need way way less gold to make same purchase. during the financial crash i personally wouldnt want to be tied in to mortgage as it will not play out in my favor. banksters will be trying to sieze last bits of 'their' assets if they can. when there is no wealth in currency they tend to grab land with stronger vigilance. just use information on this forum, invest in smart assets and wait. when the time is right you can just buy as the amount of people selling their property will skyrocket. maybe they'll sell for the same price as they bought it for but after the massive inflation, therefore by then tossing few btc or gold coins can make you a smart buyer. use your time right now wisely and dont listen to nobody including myself. also watch this very carefully:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOiQgC8Q9Ck&feature=youtube_gdata_player

"between 'lives' we all have a great laugh about the parts we have performed in the 'play', and look forward to and have great fun preparing the next chapters to act out."
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January 29, 2014, 09:53:14 AM
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How closely does your market resemble America or Japan? What is your area doing? Rising or falling and how quickly?

Sometimes there's more truth in forums than anywhere else.  Twitter:  @cryptobitchicks   "I am expressing multiple attitudes simultaneously. To which are you referring?"
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January 29, 2014, 07:55:22 PM
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How closely does your market resemble America or Japan? What is your area doing? Rising or falling and how quickly?
No idea about the markets in other countries or how they compare.  I've spent a bit of time in Canada and I know you'd definitely get a much larger property for the same price as you'd get here in the UK.  I'd say this area is fairly static in terms of price at the moment.  You can get a dump that needs fixing up for just under £100000, but anything that doesn't need serious work is £125000 and up.  And that's just apartments/flats and small terraced houses.

After a quick bit of research, at current prices you can get something like this for £125000 GBP (yes, just that middle bit in the cream/beige colour if you're not accustomed to terraced houses) in the UK.  Or at the current exchange rate you could get this for roughly the same price ($225,000 CAD) in Canada, heh.

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January 29, 2014, 08:55:26 PM
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How long do you plan on staying in it? Are you going to buy at a fixed interest, at price you can comfortably afford and then not look back for awhile?
It seems as if we never learn? Countries: just falling like dominos doing the same exact f ups in succession.
People purchase homes for many reasons. I will always own property no matter what "the market" is doing.


Some lessons I learned
If your government is working hard to get people into homes then it's likely that they are propping/puffing...."puffing" trying to keep air in.
It was bad here in the states, many people were devastated.

This is what I'll say about real estate and it's value: In general the average home should be worth what it was 25 years ago then adjusted up for inflation. This doesn't account for special areas that have gone through phases of growth, gentrification or upgrades in outside amenities. If you have been seeing a rapid climb and everyone wants to jump in...then it's ready to burst.

Interview a few agents in your area and then decide.

Sometimes there's more truth in forums than anywhere else.  Twitter:  @cryptobitchicks   "I am expressing multiple attitudes simultaneously. To which are you referring?"
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January 29, 2014, 09:16:45 PM
 #7

I think people from outside the UK don't quite realise how surreal the housing situation has become here.

A massive chunk of the economy hinges on maintaining house prices. There have been lulls and falls in many areas of the country but no crashes like the US.

When you throw in lack of home building, incredibly conservative planning, buy to let houses being bought by the ton as an alternative to pensions, waves of immigrants and big money investors from abroad I'm not sure there's another market quite like it anywhere else. There are more people chasing less accommodation with propped up finance than ever before.

There's no doubt that it's unacceptable and unsustainable, but people have been saying the same thing for many years and successive governments are committed to doing anything and everything to keep it going.

As a homeowner with a mortgage you'd be a special snowflake. The initial price might be horrific but they'll be willing to burn huge swathes of society to make sure you're alright.

If you could find somewhere that felt bearable to buy right now it might be worth jumping. There've been people waiting for many, many years for a crash which never came.






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January 30, 2014, 02:16:12 AM
 #8

Oh yes I can completely comprehend sureality in a real estate market.
Never get complacent as to a government's ability to protect against consumer losses; their interference has a lot to do with the mess in the first place.


Sometimes there's more truth in forums than anywhere else.  Twitter:  @cryptobitchicks   "I am expressing multiple attitudes simultaneously. To which are you referring?"
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